A Glimpse Into the Future

 by John Hinderaker

The Census Bureau released its population forecast earlier today. The American Redistricting Project has translated the Bureau’s forecast into Congressional representation as of 2030. As you would expect, it is bad news for the Democrats:

So Florida and Texas each gain four seats. Arizona, Utah and and Idaho each gain one. The big losers are California, -3, and New York, -2. The other loser states are blue or purple: Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

The Great Sort is one of the most important phenomena of our time. Americans are segregating ourselves into red states and blue states, with fewer in the middle. But the movement is pretty much one-way–people are moving out of blue states, and into red states. It isn’t hard to understand why; conservative policies work better than liberal policies, so red states are more prosperous, safer, and freer than blue states.

Conservatives have long worried that voters exiting blue states would bring their voting habits with them, undermining red state success. But there is no sign that this is happening. Rather, people are consciously fleeing failing states and seeking the benefits of living in a conservative state. Eight more representatives from Florida and Texas probably means six or seven more Republicans, and the same consequences follow down the line.

In the Senate, long-term trends also favor Republicans, since Democratic voters are heavily concentrated in a small number of urban areas, and there are more conservative states than liberal ones. The Democrats have fought a valiant rear-guard action to remain competitive in the Senate, but ultimately, that effort is almost certain to fail.

These demographic trends will also impact presidential elections. In the future, red states will have more electoral votes and blue states fewer, so it will be harder for a Democrat to win a national election.

The future’s so bright, we gotta wear MAGA hats.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/12/a-glimpse-into-the-future.php