One-third of the 206K job adds in June were in government

 The June jobs report revealed higher than expected job growth, with 206,000 new jobs created. However, a third of those jobs were in the government sector. 

Government employment rose by 70,000, which is far higher than the average of 49,000 over the last year. 

Employment in the sector was boosted by local government, excluding education and state government. The healthcare sector added 49,000 positions, lifted by increased hiring in ambulatory healthcare services and at hospitals.

Construction payrolls increased by 27,000 jobs. However, the retail sector shed jobs, as did manufacturing.

Professional and business services employment declined by 17,000 jobs, with temporary help jobs dropping by about 49,000. That likely portends to slower payrolls gains ahead. 

Economists say the economy needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, accounting for the recent surge in immigration.

In a good sign for the Federal Reserve and its battle against inflation, unemployment increased from 4% to 4.1%, and wage growth slowed to a rate not seen since 2021. 

Government employment rose by 70,000, which is far higher than the average of 49,000 over the last year. (REUTERS/Andrew Kelly / Reuters Photos)

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% last month after advancing 0.4% in May. In the 12 months through June, wages increased 3.9%. That was the smallest gain in wages since June 2021 and followed a 4.1% rise in May. Wage growth in a 3%-3.5% range is seen as consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Also notable was the downward revision from April and May. The April jobs report was revised downward from 165,000 to 108,000, while the May jobs report was revised down from 272,000 to 218,000. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobs-report-one-third-206k-jobs-june-were-government

Hitchhiker's Guide To Government: Rep. Goldman Insists 'US Safe In The Hands Of Others'

 by Jonathan Turley,

Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, wrote "The President [of the Galaxy] in particular is very much a figurehead - he wields no real power whatsoever. […] His job is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it.” 

This week, Rep. Daniel Goldman (D-NY) seemed to be taking the Hitchhiker’s Guide as a guide for government.

When asked about the alarming physical and mental decline of President Joe Biden, Goldman insisted that it really does not matter in responding to a call for Biden’s removal under the 25th Amendment. Goldman insisted the Republic is safe because it is in the hands of great people around him.

It is an argument that flips the 25th Amendment on its head and embraces the idea of a figurehead president.

Goldman brushed away the growing calls for President Biden to step aside as incapable of running for another four years. Indeed, some are calling for an investigation into whether he can carry out the duties of his office until January 2025.

“So, let’s not just focus on Joe Biden here. Let’s focus on the people around him, the administration, the policies, and most importantly, the appreciation and protection for the rule of law and our democracy that Donald Trump, every single day, has vowed to take down.”

He added that Biden is “vibrant” and that “the reality is that Joe Biden has surrounded himself with an incredibly capable team with almost no turnover.”

Other democrats have attempted to avoid the manifest confusion and infirmity of the president. This includes Democrats who repeatedly called for formal action to remove former president Donald Trump under the 25th Amendment, including Reps. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.; Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash.; Jamie Raskin, D-Md.; Maxine Waters, D-Calif., and Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

However, it was Goldman who who, as usual, came up with the most vertigo-triggering spin.

The 25th Amendment was designed to specifically avoid a figurehead presidency where family or aides perform critical functions of the office. That was indeed the concern with presidents like Woodrow Wilson when a stroke left him incapable to function as president. His wife Edith hid the truth from the public and the Congress as she and others carried out his functions.

He also had “an incredibly capable team” around him, but they were not elected president.

In the meantime, the media is still struggling to explain to the public why they did not disclose the President’s condition earlier while promulgating the “cheap fake” narrative. For weeks heading into the debate, media outlets repeated the claim that videos showing Biden’s confusion were false and misleading. Some are now reportedly admitting that they did not want to confirm “right-wing media” accounts — an admission of shaping the news for political purposes.

The greatest threat to President Biden may ultimately be the political calculus. For most of these members, their loyalty to Biden ends at the point that he endangers their own hold on power. A couple dozen members are reportedly preparing a letter calling for possible removal in the hope that they can replace Biden with someone who has a better chance of beating Trump. It is no easy feat, but Democratic operatives are furiously working out the complications under federal election laws and state laws.

In the meantime, the 25th Amendment process is looming. More citizens may become convinced by what Pelosi said about then President Donald Trump: “Congress has a constitutional duty to lay out the process by which a president’s incapacity and the president of any party is determined…A president’s fitness for office must be determined by science and facts.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hitchhikers-guide-government-rep-goldman-insists-country-safe-hands-others

EU Leaders Outraged As A Defiant Viktor Orban Visits Putin On "Peace Mission"

 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has showed up in Moscow Friday, on a surprise visit to meet with President Vladimir Putin which has at the same time outraged European officials.

Defying the EU, Orban wrote of the trip on X, "The #peace mission continues. Second stop: #Moscow." This "peace mission" comes a mere days after for the first time of the war he visited Kiev and met with President Zelensky to talk about getting the sides to the negotiating table.

What especially makes things awkward for European Union leadership is the fact that Hungary just recently took over the rotating EU presidency.

Putin alluded to this in televised comments, saying that Orban had come to Moscow precisely in this capacity as the top representative of the European Council. This despite a number of European officials having strongly condemned the visit.

"I understand that this time you have come not just as our longstanding partner but as president of the council," Putin told Orban. Putin said he's expecting that Orban will lay out "the position of European partners" on Ukraine.

While Orban had informed NATO about his intention to visit Moscow, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell slammed the visit, saying the PM is "not representing the EU in any form." Borrell emphasized the trip is only in the context of  "the framework of... bilateral relations between Hungary and Russia."

Borrell also reminded a press briefing that Putin "has been indicted by the International Criminal Court and an arrest warrant released for his role in relation to the forced deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia."

European Council President Charles Michel also said that Orban has "no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU." He posted on X just prior to Orban's meeting with Putin, "The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine." And Ursula von der Leyen has called the visit "appeasement". 

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who is set to become the EU’s next foreign policy chief, issued a swift and fierce condemnation, saying Orban is "exploiting" the EU presidency position in order to "sow confusion". The well-known hawk added: "The EU is united, clearly behind Ukraine and against Russian aggression."

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated, "The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine." He expressed shock and dismay on X: "The rumors about your visit to Moscow cannot be true, @PM_ViktorOrban, or can they?"

Yet Orban remained unbowed and defiant in the face of an avalanche of denunciations, telling Putin in their meeting, "Hungary will slowly become the last European country that can talk to everyone."

Orban has been busy blasting his EU counterparts for creating the conditions to extend the war as opposed to seeking its end...

After likely hundreds of thousands of lives lost in a grinding, horrific war which shows no signs of stopping and which could easily reach the three year mark, peace talks are still nowhere on the horizon. It is indeed long past time that an EU leader is seen going between the warring capitals in a desperate effort to open a window for truce talks which could lead to final negotiated settlement.

But Orban's peace mission has European and NATO bureaucrats absolutely livid. This sets up Hungary for future and near-term contentious leadership within the EU Council. This friction was already present, but is deepening fast at this point. Are NATO and the EU afraid of peace?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-leaders-outraged-defiant-viktor-orban-visits-putin-peace-mission

Watch: Prominent Dem Donor Ari Emmanuel Unleashes On Biden; "We're In F**k City"

 by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A major donor to the Democratic Party has torched Joe Biden, declaring that “we are in fuck city,” and noting that other prominent donors are moving their money into the Congress and Senate races.

Ari Emanuel, the CEO of Endeavor, which owns the UFC and WWE, made the comments during the Aspen Ideas Festival, noting that Biden “said he was gonna run for one term and he was doing it to restore democracy. He now runs for a second term. That’s the first bit of malarkey, as he would say.”

Emanuel continued, “His cohorts have told us that he’s healthy for over a year, and I think it was two weeks ago, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal.”

“I had a father who died at 92 but at 81, I took away his car. It’s a very simple test for me. If you were driving from downtown Beverly Hills to Malibu, would you want Biden to do it at night?” he further posited.

Emanuel further charged that Biden is “telling us malarkey, his people are telling us malarkey, and we’re in a very bad problem.”

Then came the kicker.

“I talked to a bunch of big donors, and they’re moving all their money to Congress and the Senate,” the CEO stated, adding “He gave us a bunch of malarkey, and I’m really pissed. We all should be really pissed.”

“He is not the candidate anymore. This is a legal issue now,” Emanuel insisted, adding that removing Biden is tricky legally in some states, and suggesting that it could be done if the campaign money dries up.

Emanuel concluded by declaring “It’s a legal issue now… but we’re in fuck city.”

Another prominent donor, Netflix’s billionaire co-founder Reed Hastings, has also called for Biden to drop out of the race, telling the New York Times that “Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous.”

As we highlighted earlier, the Times has also reported that Biden told a “key ally” that he may be forced to drop out of the race if upcoming appearances do not go well.

*  *  *

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-prominent-democrat-donor-unleashes-biden-were-fk-city

Disney Heiress Halts Donations To Democrats Until Biden Is Replaced

 Disney heiress Abigail Disney told CNBC on Thursday, July 4, that she plans to stop making political donations to the Democratic Party until President Biden withdraws from the presidential race. She is among a growing number of Democrat donors who are pausing donations until Biden steps aside. 

"I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket. This is realism, not disrespect. Biden is a good man and has served his country admirably, but the stakes are far too high," Disney said, who is the granddaughter of Roy O. Disney. Her statement comes as infighting in the leftist political party erupts, with donors, lawmakers, and even some left-wing media outlets calling for the president to step aside after last week's disastrous debate with former President Trump. 

Disney continued, "If Biden does not step down the Democrats will lose. Of that I am absolutely certain. The consequences for the loss will be genuinely dire."

Later in the day, Biden showcased his plummeting mental acuity, even though leftist corporate media outlets and those in the White House lied to the nation for years about the president's cognitive capacities. On Philadelphia's WURD radio, the president called himself the first black woman to serve in the White House.

The Democratic Party has been freaking out all week about Biden, as one major donor declared: "We are in f*ck city."

On Wednesday, Ari Emanuel, the CEO of Endeavor, which owns the UFC and WWE, told the audience at the Aspen Ideas Festival that other prominent donors are moving their money into the Congress and Senate races. 

Netflix's billionaire co-founder Reed Hastings, another mega-donor, also called for Biden to step aside, telling the New York Times, "Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous."

According to AP News and Reuters, about 40 top donors last weekend asked Biden's campaign manager whether the campaign would offer a refund if Biden doesn't run. 

Meanwhile... 

In the betting markets, data from PredictIt shows that on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of becoming the next president exceeded Biden's. 

Trump's odds via PredictIt also received a noticeable bump after Biden's disastrous debate last week. 

Meanwhile, Biden's first television interview following the debate will be aired on Friday when he sits down with "Good Morning America" and "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos in Wisconsin. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disney-heiress-halts-donations-democrats-until-biden-replaced

Payrolls Rise 206K After Huge Downward Revisions As Jobless Rate Jumps To 3 Year High

 It appears that Biden's apparatchiks refuse to give up on the myth of a "strong labor market" just yet even as they admit to anyone who reads between the lines just how ugly things are getting.

Moments ago the BLS reported that in June the US added 206K jobs, above the 190K expected.

Not bad, especially with Goldman expecting 140K. Of course, a quick glance reveals where the "beat" came from: both previous months were revised sharply lower:

• May jobs revised from 272K, to 218K
• April jobs revised from 165K to 108K

With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. So yes, it is easy to "beat" when you have a pool of 111K jobs that never existed to push into this month. And course, next month when the June data is revised lower, the 206K beat will be revised to a sub 190K miss but by then it will be too late.  And as shown in the chart below, 4 of the past 5 months have seen payrolls revised lower.

Not only that but the composition of jobs was once again dismal and followed the same gimmick the BLS used for its "strong" JOLTS report this week: private sector workers came in at 136K, well below the 160K expected and down from a downward revised 193K (was 229K). The gap was filled by - what else- deep stater and other government workers, as government payrolls jumped from 25K to 70K!

Even Steve Liesman admitted that it's all government jobs.

And let's not forget that half of job creation in the US is entirely fictitious and the result of "birth/death", i.e., small business creation assumptions which are now dead wrong.

The good news is that unlike last month when the number of employed workers actually plunged again leading to a a record gap between the Establishment and Household Surveys, in June at least the number of employed workers rose by 116K. Which however means that the gap between the two series rose by another 90K!

Turning to the unemployment rate, there was a big surprise here because contrary to expectations of a flat print, the number rose to 4.1%, up from 4.0% in May and the highest print since November 2021!

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.7 percent) and Asians (4.1 percent) increased in June. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), teenagers (12.1 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (6.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

Some more stats from the latest jobs report:

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose by 166,000 to 1.5 million in June. This measure is up from 1.1 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 22.2 percent of all unemployed people in June.
• The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.6 percent in June, and the employment-population ratio held at 60.1 percent. These measures showed little or no change over the year.
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June.
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job declined by 483,000 to 5.2 million in June. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.5 million, was essentially unchanged in June. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, edged down to 365,000 in June.

Turning to hourly earnings, here too there was continued slowing with the average hourly earnings number rising 3.9% YoY, down from 4.1% in May and in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, the print also slower to 0.3%, down from 0.4% in May.

In keeping with the BLS' other favorite gimmick of representing part-time jobs growth as the primary driver of the US labor market, in June, the number of part-time workers rose 50K to 28.1 million while full-time workers dropped by 28K. This means that since June 2023, the US has added 1.8 million part-time jobs and lost 1.6 million ful-time jobs.

Finally, looking at the various industries, we find that the bulk of jobs growth in June was on the back of government workers, which as is well-known, do not actually produce anything but are a drain of US wealth and merely serve to redistribute income.  Here is the full breakdown:

• Government employment rose by 70,000 in June, higher than the average monthly gain of 49,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in local government, excluding education (+34,000) and in state government (+26,000).
• Health care added 49,000 jobs in June, lower than the average monthly gain of 64,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+22,000) and hospitals (+22,000).
• Employment in social assistance increased by 34,000 in June, primarily in individual and family services (+26,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month.
• Construction added 27,000 jobs in June, higher than the average monthly gain of 20,000 over the prior 12 months.
• Retail trade employment changed little in June (-9,000), after trending up earlier in the year. Furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers lost 6,000 jobs over the month, while warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers gained 5,000 jobs.
• Employment in professional and business services changed little in June (-17,000) and has shown little change over the year. And the best leading indicator for jobs: temp-help services employment declined by 49,000 over the month and is down by 515,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022.

Commenting on the jobs report,  Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics said that “Overall, a moderation in payrolls in Q2 coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate and a slower growth path suggested by recent data bolster the case for rate cuts this year. We think the Fed could certainly start the discussion about cutting rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and lower the policy rate in September, if the data continue to show moderation.”

And here is Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management:“The equity market may be a little conflicted how to respond to today’s jobs report. On one hand, the downward revisions to prior months and the rise in the unemployment rate raises the odds of a September Fed rate cut – bond markets are certainly celebrating this. But those same figures cannot help but prompt a twinge of concern about the direction of the US economy. The broad host of economic data all point to a softening – today’s report adds to that picture.”

However, the bigger take home message here besides the timing of the next Fed cut which will come - just a matter of when - is that the Biden BLS is now clearly expecting to dump the mother of all disastrous job report realities on the Trump admin, which will come in just in time to have to revise the actual number of jobs lower by several million.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/payrolls-rise-206k-after-huge-downward-revisions-unemployment-rate-jumps-three-year-high