U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday approved the sale to Israel of different military equipment worth over $20 billion, the Pentagon said.
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
'Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials'
Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh's killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.
"We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire," Iran's mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran's foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint "contradict principles of international law."
Iran's foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.
"Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies... That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment," White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.
"If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday," he added.
At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would "harshly punish" Israel for the strike in Tehran.
“We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options," Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.
"We are determined to fulfill our mission - we must ensure the safe return of (Israel’s northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River."
Iran's regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the country's top authority. Iran's relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran's anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.
Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
"The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,” Litvak said. “An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don't know the scale and the timing.”
Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic's leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, "to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region."
Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play "a key role."
Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the United States while negotiations proceed.
Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon's Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.
A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller "symbolic" response, one of the sources said.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.
APRIL MISSILES
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination.
On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran's embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.
"Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack," said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy."
Nadimi said such a response would require "a lot of preparation and coordination" especially if it involved Iran's network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called "Axis of Resistance," that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7.
Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form such support could take.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-only-gaza-ceasefire-delay-110540633.html
'Expect Good to Very Good CPI Reports for July, August, and September'
The BLS CPI report is out tomorrow. There will be a second report before the September Fed meeting. The reports will allow the Fed to cut rates by 0.50 Percent.
Gaming the CPI Month-Over-Month
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus is for the CPI to rise by 0.2 percent in July.
I will take the under at 0.1 percent with a decent chance for lower depending on rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER).
OER is the price someone would pay to rent their own house if they rented instead of owning.
Estimating Year-Over-Year for July
For every 0.1 percentage point above or below 0.2 percent for July, expect a corresponding move in the year-over-year report tomorrow.
My estimate is 0.1 percent for July, thus a 2.9 percent year-over year number, down from 3.0 percent last month.
Year-Over-Year Look Ahead
- July: 2.9 percent
- August: 2.4 percent
- September: 2.1 percent
At the risk of looking silly, I suggest any surprises for those numbers to be to the downside.
Adjustments
My forecast for August and September depends on being correct for July.
For every 0.1 percentage point above or below 2.9 percent in July, adjust August and September up or down accordingly.
The year-over-year reports for August and September will be very good regardless of what happens in July.
Producer Price Index (PPI) Weaker than Expected
Earlier today I commented Producer Price Index (PPI) Weaker than Expected, the Fed Will Be Pleased
The PPI rose 0.1 percent in July vs. a 0.2 percent Bloomberg Econoday expectation. The way the PPI outperformed will please the Fed.
Transitory Pleasure
The Fed’s pleasure will be transitory as good CPI reports morph into a recession.
For discussion, please see my August 2, 2024 post The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered.
I did a follow-up post on August 9, Recession Debate: Citing the Sahm Rule, WSJ’s Greg Ip Says No Recession
Greg Ip says the conditions for recession are not in place. I disagree. And I show where and how he went wrong.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/expect-good-to-very-good-cpi-reports-for-july-august-and-september/
'Protesters Block LA's Busiest Freeway, "Demand Immediate Ceasefire" In Gaza'
This is becoming absurd. For months, pro-Palestinian protesters have been running amuck across the country, blocking critical infrastructure, such as highways, bridges, and airport terminals. These disruptions are piling up, yet the Biden-Harris administration stays silent.
The latest disruption occurred Tuesday morning on Los Angeles' busiest highway, the 405 Freeway in West Los Angeles.
Local media outlet KABC explained, "Protesters calling for an arms embargo and a permanent ceasefire in Gaza walked onto the southbound 405 Freeway in Palms."
These protesters are affiliated with IfNotNow, an American Jewish group that opposes the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Here's more:
The protesters, organized in part by the group IfNotNow Los Angeles, walked onto the freeway around 9 a.m. in the area of Venice Boulevard, creating an instant backup of traffic south of the 10 Freeway.
California Highway Patrol officers quickly responded to the scene, and the group was quickly moved out of traffic lanes. The group, consisting of several dozen people, could then be seen marching south along the freeway shoulder and being escorted off the roadway under the watch of CHP officers.
By 9:40 a.m., all lanes except one were reopened to slow-moving traffic on the freeway.
Scenes of the disruption:
IfNotNow Los Angeles released this statement, "American Jews and allies have shut down the 405 freeway in West Los Angeles in protest of U.S. support for Israel's assault on Gaza," adding:
"With one week to go before the Democratic National Convention, protesters are coalescing around three demands for all elected officials:
call for a lasting ceasefire,
reject the American Israel Public Affairs Committee,
and legislate an arms embargo."
Imagine how hard the MSM will have to try to hide the protests in Chicago
USPS Sees Steep Drop In Expedited Shipping Demand
By Max Garland of SupplyChainDive
The U.S. Postal Service’s expedited package shipping services have seen a steep drop in demand, according to quarterly results released Thursday.
The agency weathered a 40.7% decline in Priority Mail Services volume year over year for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended June 30.
The category includes shipments for Priority Mail, which offers delivery in one-to-three business days, and Priority Mail Express shipments, providing delivery in one to two days with a money-back guarantee.
“Our Priority Mail Services subcategory can be more price sensitive than other services and it continues to face intense competition from more affordable products and an industry-wide trend away from expedited products,” the Postal Service said in its quarterly report.
Shippers are embracing slower parcel delivery services to save on shipping costs, a choice that’s easier to make as they move inventory closer to end consumers and carriers improve transit times within their ground transportation networks.
UPS is seeing shippers “trade down” from speedy air transportation to more cost-effective options like its SurePost product, which utilizes the Postal Service for final-mile delivery, CFO Brian Dykes told analysts during a July earnings call.
FedEx’s international customers are also opting for slower deferred services more often, tied in part to growth from e-commerce shippers that tend to utilize those offerings, President and CEO Raj Subramaniam said on a March earnings call.
The Postal Service is seeing this market shift play out within its own network.
More economical products like USPS Ground Advantage fared better for the Postal Service in Q3, leading to a 2.7% overall increase in volume within the agency’s Shipping and Packages category.
“USPS Ground Advantage, the Postal Service’s shipping offering which provides a simple, reliable, and more affordable way to ship packages, has continued to experience wide adoption and growth in the marketplace,” the agency said in a news release about the Q3 results.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/usps-sees-steep-drop-expedited-shipping-demand
Syros Stops Mid-Stage Leukemia Combo Study on Disappointing Unexpected Outcome
Syros Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:SYRS) stock is trading lower on Tuesday after the company issued an update on the SELECT-AML-1 Phase 2 trial.
The company announced that it will discontinue enrollment in the SELECT-AML-1 Phase 2 trial evaluating the triplet regimen of tamibarotene in combination with venetoclax and azacitidine compared to the doublet regimen of venetoclax and azacitidine in newly diagnosed, unfit patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and RARA gene overexpression.
AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) and Roche Holdings AG (OTC:RHHBY) sell venetoclax as Venclexta. Bristol
Bristol Myers Squibb & Co (NYSE:BMY) markets azacitidine as Vidaza. This decision is based on the results of a prespecified interim analysis of the trial.
Data from 51 patients enrolled in SELECT-AML-1 were reviewed on August 9. This review included a prespecified non-binding futility analysis conducted on the first 40 randomized patients after the fortieth randomized patient received approximately three months of study drug or discontinued treatment.
A similar complete response (CR)/complete response with incomplete hematologic recovery (CRi) rate was observed in the triplet arm (n=20; 65%) and the doublet arm (n=20; 70%).
As a result, the probability of the SELECT-AML-1 study’s success in demonstrating superiority in the final analysis of 80 randomized patients was considered low.
There were no new safety signals associated with the use of tamibarotene in combination with venetoclax and azacitidine.
Patients currently enrolled in SELECT-AML-1 will have the opportunity to remain on the study at the discretion of study investigators.
Syros plans to present data from SELECT-AML-1 at the Society of Hematologic Oncology Annual Meeting in September.
“We are disappointed by this unexpected outcome...” said David Roth, Chief Medical Officer of Syros.
“In our prior Phase 2 clinical trial, the doublet combination of tamibarotene and azacitidine delivered a 61% CR/CRi rate in newly diagnosed AML patients with RARA overexpression,” Roth added.
Syros continues to evaluate tamibarotene in combination with azacitidine in the SELECT-MDS-1 Phase 3 trial in newly diagnosed higher-risk myelodysplastic syndrome patients with RARA gene overexpression.
The SELECT-MDS-1 trial passed a prespecified futility analysis in the first quarter of 2024. Pivotal CR data are expected by the middle of the fourth quarter of 2024.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cancer-focused-syros-pharmaceuticals-stops-134117947.html
WSJ: 'Trump and Musk, on X, Discuss Immigration and Shared Vision for U.S.'
For over two hours, Elon Musk and Donald Trump bantered on X about national security, energy policy, immigration and more, in a freewheeling conversation that gave the former president a forum to launch personal attacks on his political rivals as both men reveled in their largely shared vision for the country.
The discussion on the social-media platform’s livestreaming service Spaces—which was delayed because of technical problems—began with Musk asking about the assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania last month. Musk referred to security failures allowing the shooter to get on a nearby roof. “That does seem crazy,” he said.
“Well, they’re going to learn from this,” said Trump, while praising the Secret Service response. “They moved so fast and let me tell you, that took tremendous courage.”
Trump is in a fierce competition with Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, as polls have shown her gaining momentum since President Biden exited the race for the presidency. The Republican former president has been frustrated by the attention Harris’s ascent has received, and he saw his return to X—known as Twitter when he frequently used it during his presidency—as a way to regain some of the spotlight.
X is a vastly bigger platform for Trump, where he had 88.9 million followers Monday night, compared with his own Truth Social network, with 7.53 million followers.
It was hyped by Trump’s team as “the interview of the century,” but the audio-only event felt more like overhearing a telephone call, often with rambling, between two figures who have grown closer as Musk’s politics have shifted to the right. Musk, who endorsed Trump immediately after the assassination attempt, had said before the event that he didn’t want to conduct a typical interview and that he wanted the discussion to be a conversation.
There were few revelations about Trump’s second-term agenda—and Musk struggled at times to get a word in. The tech entrepreneur struck an overall more nuanced tone than Trump on issues, including immigration. Trump was largely in attack mode.
Musk said most people who enter the country “are actually good hardworking people,” but some aren’t. Trump was decidedly more negative, suggesting criminals and “nonproductive” people were flooding the country.
“These are rough people,” Trump said. “These are people we don’t want in our country.”
Trump falsely claimed that “over 20 million people” entered the U.S. having escaped prisons, mental institutions or insane asylums.
He said that undocumented migrants are entering the U.S. at “levels never seen before.” The U.S. recorded about 57,000 illegal crossings in July, The Wall Street Journal reported, down from around 250,000 in December, when they reached an all-time high.
Musk appeared to raise the idea of a potential position on what he called a government efficiency panel looking at spending of taxpayer money.
“I’d be happy to help out on such a commission, ” Musk said.
“I’d love it,” Trump responded.
The Journal reported in May that Trump and Musk had discussed a possible advisory role for the entrepreneur if Trump won a second term.
The former president, whose campaign has been working to define Harris, called her fake. But he also spent time attacking Biden, at times focusing on his former opponent’s record and calling him stupid. Biden dropped out of the race three weeks ago, but Trump is seeking to latch his new rival to the administration’s policies.
“By the way, you think Biden could do this interview? Do you think that Kamala could do this interview?” Trump said.
A Harris spokesman said: “Trump’s entire campaign is in service of people like Elon Musk and himself—self-obsessed rich guys who will sell out the middle class and who cannot run a livestream in the year 2024.”
When the discussion turned to the use of fossil fuels, Trump suggested the issue was far in the future. “I think we have, you know, perhaps hundreds of years left,” he added.
Musk gently pushed back. “My estimate would be, you know, a little more aggressive than that,” he replied, adding later: “If, I don’t know, 50 to 100 years from now, we’re…mostly sustainable, I think that’ll probably be OK.”
The conversation was plagued by technical issues at the start. Some users trying to listen instead saw a message saying: “Details not available.” Others were able to get into a listening room only to quickly receive a message reading, “This Space is not available.” Confusion and jokes raced across the internet, and the malfunction evoked the kind of issues that marred the presidential campaign launch of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on the platform last year.
Right before the event started, Musk cited without evidence a “massive DDOS attack on X,” referring to a distributed denial-of-service, the sort of cyberattack that overwhelms a website, crashing it.
“There’s a lot of opposition to people just hearing what President Trump has to say,” Musk said as the delayed event began. Some observers questioned Musk’s explanation, noting the rest of the platform seemed to continue working.
The technical problems represented a setback at a closely watched moment for X, which Musk has been seeking to promote as the go-to online venue for news ahead of the November U.S. presidential election.
It was slated to start at 8 p.m. About 8:35 p.m. it appeared a microphone was turned on as sound could be heard, suggesting the event could begin, but then silence took over. Around 8:42 p.m., Musk started speaking. Just after it began, the event’s listeners crossed one million users, according to the platform’s figures.
Earlier Monday, ahead of the discussion on X’s Spaces, Trump returned to the platform with several posts—his first since last August, when he posted a photo of his mug shot after he surrendered at an Atlanta jail on charges he conspired to overturn his election loss in Georgia.
Also on Monday, European Union official Thierry Breton sent a letter to Musk warning about the bloc’s online-content rules in the context of events including the interview, though the letter referred to a U.S. “presidential candidate” and didn’t name Trump. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, has been investigating X over its handling of illegal content and disinformation, and Breton in the letter said Monday’s interview is of interest to EU officials because users in the EU can watch it.
X Chief Executive Linda Yaccarino responded on X, posting: “This is an unprecedented attempt to stretch a law intended to apply in Europe to political activities in the US. It also patronizes European citizens, suggesting they are incapable of listening to a conversation and drawing their own conclusions.”
Musk said during the event that America needed safe cities, secure borders and deregulation, pitching a second Trump term as vital to achieving those goals.
“I think really it’s essential that you win for the good of the country,” Musk said. “I’m just stating my opinion.”
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-musk-gear-up-for-x-interview-tonight-98c5e9f9
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