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Monday, December 2, 2024

Sullivan Touts 'Massive Surge' In Arms To Ukraine With 50 Days Left In Biden's Term

 National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan took to the Sunday news shows where he boasted that the White House is surging as many weapons as possible to Ukraine in the final days of the Biden administration.

He explained to ABC News that with just 50 days left in Biden's term, the White House is busy trying to "get Ukraine all the tools we possibly can to strengthen their position on the battlefield."

"President Biden directed me to oversee a massive surge in the military equipment that we are delivering to Ukraine so that we have spent every dollar that Congress has appropriated to us by the time that President Biden leaves office," he said.

NurPhoto/Reuters

Biden and his top officials have long pledged to support Ukraine with arms and funding "for as long as it takes" to defeat Russia.

But Sullivan and other defense officials have of late begun to acknowledge the inevitability of the Zelensky government having to enter negotiations with Moscow. For the time being, Sullivan said Washington aims to "give Ukraine as many tools as possible so that they could go into that negotiation and feel they could achieve the outcome that they would like to see."

Still, Sullivan sought to reiterate in the ABC appearance that the "key thing" behind potential negotiations to end the war is that Ukraine’s destiny should "not be imposed by outside powers, including the United States."

Concerning a recent NY Times report that suggested some US officials want to see nuclear weapons given to Ukraine, Sullivan dismissed this as a possibility:

Still, Sullivan debunked a report suggesting that the administration is open to returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine.

"That is not under consideration. No. What we are doing is surging various conventional capacities to Ukraine so that they can effectively defend themselves and take the fight to the Russians, not nuclear capability," he told Karl.

As for dealing with the incoming Trump administration, Sullivan confirmed there is contact on handing "off the baton" - though Trump has vowed to immediately negotiate an end to the war. 

"I've encouraged the Ukrainian team to engage the incoming team as well as to engage all of our allies and partners, because, again, on Jan. 21, the war in Ukraine doesn't just go away," Sullivan said.

He added: "Obviously, the new team will have its own policy, its own approach, and I can't speak to that, but what I can do is make sure that we put Ukraine in the best possible position when we hand off the baton."

But the Biden administration's policy has really only been a recipe for uncontrollable escalation. A 'massive surge' of new military equipment assures a prolonging of the war, even as it's become clear that Ukraine's real problem is manpower, and as Russian gains are evident in the east.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sullivan-touts-massive-surge-arms-ukraine-50-days-left-bidens-term

Rabobank: Biden's Pardon Risks Further Erosion Of Confidence In The US Government

 By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Pardon?

US stocks rose in shortened trading on Friday, with both the Dow and the S&P500 closing at fresh record highs. Consequently, November marked the best month of the year for the S&P500 as the index finished 5.73% higher, beating February’s 5.17% rise into the silver medal position.

European stocks also rose with the CAC40 up 0.78% and the German DAX up 1.03%. Confidence in Europe was buoyed slightly by a commitment from Marine Le Pen that she wouldn’t bring down Michel Barnier’s government before the weekend over deep disagreements on Barnier’s budget. Despite the stay of execution, the two sides appear to have irreconcilable views over social spending, and its hard to see a situation where Le Pen’s National Rally allows Barnier’s more neoliberal administration to survive into the new year.

Yields on 10-year OATs fell by ~5bps on Friday and French bonds underperformed German Bunds as November CPI data showed a quicker pace of disinflation in France. Nevertheless, the political instability has taken a toll on French borrowing costs as illustrated by outperformance of Greek 10-year bonds on the day and the parity between Greek and French yields (!). Bloomberg reports that some French corporates are now experiencing lower borrowing costs than the national government.

Meanwhile, over in Germany the far-right AfD published a draft policy platform outlining plans to campaign on policies to leave the EU, the Paris Climate Accord and the Euro if the party is successful in forming government at the early election expected in February. The draft policy platform also includes proposals to roll back economic sanctions on Russia and recommission the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, but still needs to be voted on by AfD members in mid-January. The draft platform marks a break from the manifesto published ahead of EU parliament elections in June, which did not include a firm commitment to take Germany out of the EU.

USDJPY sank below the key 150 level on Friday as Tokyo CPI came in hotter than expected on both the headline and ex-fresh food measure. Even the ex-fresh food and energy measure was up 1-tick on the October reading, prompting a slight lift in futures implied probability of a rate hike at the BOJ’s policy meeting on December 19th. The OIS strip currently has a hike of 16.5bps priced in for the December meeting.

On the geopolitics front the swift dismantling of Hezbollah by Israel, and Russia’s preoccupation with its war on Ukraine appears to have come at great cost for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Rebel forces recaptured the country’s second largest city of Aleppo as regime troops were left somewhat stranded by Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies and were consequently overwhelmed by the Turkish-backed rebels.

In a situation similar to Yemen, civil war has been raging in Syria for 13 years without attracting a great deal of mainstream interest in Western media. In the case of Yemen, that all changed once the civil war impacted upon freight transits through the Suez Canal, while in Syria the ongoing competition for spheres of influence by Great Powers (Russia, USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Israel etc) provides a useful microcosm of the new global paradigm, but only if one cares to look.

Speaking of new paradigms, Australia’s governing Labor Party struck a deal with the left-wing Greens last week to push through proposed reforms of the RBA. The reforms will create a dual board structure at the central bank, splitting responsibility for monetary policy decisions off from the operational and governance oversight of the bank. Australia’s centre-right opposition parties dealt themselves out of negotiations with the government over the reforms due to fears that the government would use the restructure to “sack (fire) and stack” the monetary policy board with political appointments who might be inclined to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal election due by May next year.

The Greens have been vocal critics of the RBA’s tightening of monetary policy and had previously said that they would only support the government’s RBA reforms if the Treasurer invoked never-before-used powers that allow him to override monetary policy decisions. Treasurer Jim Chalmers had planned to abolish that power and another provision that grants the RBA power to direct bank lending activities. Both of those powers might be useful in a world of increased geopolitical competition where free trade is taking a back seat to state aims and industrial policy is becoming de rigeur again.

Finally, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Joe Biden has pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, for federal gun and tax charges despite earlier vows not to intervene. President Biden said that it was clear that Hunter had been “treated differently” by the Justice Department. While this news itself is not immediately market sensitive, Biden’s suggestion that Justice Department prosecutions have not been blind to political considerations in the case of Hunter Biden perhaps risks legitimising President Trump’s claims of unfair prosecution directed against him, and further erosion of confidence in the USA’s institutions of government.

That could certainly have long-term implications for borrowing costs, transmission of monetary policy and a host of other variables.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/rabobank-bidens-pardon-risks-further-erosion-confidence-us-government

Sabotaging RFK Jr's confirmation will increase vaccine hesitancy

 by Vinay Prasad

This week STAT reported that Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, is working to torpedo RFK Jr’s nomination. I have several thoughts

  1. Scott Gottlieb was a poor FDA commissioner. He famously approved Lartruvo, only to have that blow up in his face. (I am happy to elaborate on this in a future post). Then, like a complete corporate sell out, he left FDA to work for Pfizer, pushing vaccine passports and other unethical compulsive tactics to increase sales. Scott represents the swamp of Washington. A man who says he wants to do good, but stays to do well.

  2. Scott Gottlieb is a shrewd political force. I suspect he himself has planted this story (or at least encouraged it) so that he can position himself to be the next HHS director, when DJT fires RFK Jr (I suspect he believes that might occur)

  3. Scott Gottlieb is not thinking about this correctly. If a Pfizer board member sabotages the candidacy of RFK Jr. vaccine hesitancy will increase. I explain in a recent twitter post.

  4. First, vaccine hesitancy has been growing for some time. RFK Jr. is not the beginning or end of it.

  1. Measles outbreaks will happen no matter what. The CDC did the most to fuel it by ignoring COVID19 safety signals, by forcing COVID vaccines on low risk populations, and by wrongly adding COVID19 vaccines to the childhood immunization schedule. The key question is: does it go higher or lower if RFK is confirmed vs. if he is not.

  2. In the thread below, I argue it will be worse if he is not confirmed.

  1. At this point, the best way to curb vaccine hesitancy is to approve RFK Jr, and redirect his energies to generating more data. More data will answer the key questions that remain unanswered: which childhood immunization program is optimal. The worse thing we can do is tank his nomination. Then vaccine hesitancy will explode.

Abbott threatens to defund children’s hospital over doc’s viral TikTok about citizenship question

 Texas Gov. Greg Abbott threatened last week to revoke government funding from a children’s hospital in response to a Houston doctor’s viral TikTok advising patients to skip a citizenship question on intake forms.

Abbott issued an executive order in early August requiring hospitals that take Medicaid or Children’s Health Insurance Plan to ask patients “Are you a U.S. citizen?” on specific intake forms. The new order went into effect on Nov. 1.

Dr. Tony Pastor, a cardiologist at Texas Children’s Hospital and assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, took to TikTok on Nov. 11 to let his audience know that he and other staff at the hospital were told that people did not have to answer the new question, despite the executive order.

Gov. Greg Abbott delivering a speech at the 2024 Governor’s Small Business Summit in El Paso, Texas.Omar Ornelas / El Paso Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

His video went viral, garnering over 1 million views before it was taken down.

“So my proposal to everyone who’s seeing this is, just know that you do not have to answer this question,” Pastor said in the now-deleted video.

Abbott responded in an accusatory Nov. 24 X post, warning the hospital that it could lose its funding because of Pastor’s comments.

Dr. Tony Pastor faced backlash from Gov. Greg Abbott for his
viral TikTok telling people they do not have to answer the
citizenship question.

“Hey Texas Children’s Hospital & Baylor College of Medicine this doctor is putting your Medicaid & Medicare funding at risk. [You] better think twice & have crystal clear records,” Abbott wrote.

“There will be consequences for failing to follow the law in the Order.”

Pastor posted a brief response to the governor’s apparent threats on Nov. 26.

“When the gov of Texas threatens you on twitter because he is mad you exercised freedom of speech,” Pastor captioned a TikTok post.

“This new law that’s asking hospitals for immigration status is under the guise of trying to get data on how much money we’re spending on undocumented patients,” he said in another video posted just days before Abbott’s response.

Gov. Greg Abbott talks about public safety at a South Texas Property Rights Association meeting in Corpus Christi, Texas.Angela Piazza/Caller-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A representative for the Texas Children’s Hospital wrote in a statement that it will be complying with Abbott’s executive order, and insisted that Pastor’s stance does not reflect the entire hospital.

“Texas Children’s fully supports Governor Abbott’s new Executive Order and is in full compliance. We have worked closely with the Texas Hospital Association and our industry partners across the state to ensure compliance in advance of the effective date,” the spokesperson wrote.

“While we recognize that individuals working at Texas Children’s hold their own personal views on many topics, those opinions do not necessarily reflect the official position of Texas Children’s Hospital. We will continue to prioritize patient care while ensuring we are in full compliance with all laws and legal directives.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in an exclusive interview with Jennie Taer for the New York Post in Austin, Texas, in September 2024.James Breeden for the NY Post

Meanwhile, other medical and advocacy groups across the state have been doling out the same advice as Pastor.

“You do not have to answer the citizenship question if you don’t want to. Your answer will not affect your care — you will not be turned away,” a flyer posted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District reads.

“You have a right to life-saving care, regardless of citizenship or immigration status.”

The American Civil Liberties Union has also chimed in and agrees that patients aren’t legally required to respond to the new question.

Texas Children’s Hospital has previously complied with the state’s orders, including halting hormone-related prescriptions for transgender kids in 2022 following Abbott’s instruction for Child Protective Services to investigate parents and doctors granting transgender youth gender-affirming care.

https://nypost.com/2024/12/01/us-news/texas-gov-greg-abbott-threatens-to-defund-childrens-hospital-over-doctors-viral-tiktok/

French government faces collapse after opposition says will vote no-confidence

 The French government is all but certain to collapse later this week after far-right and left-wing parties said they will vote for a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Michel Barnier.

Their move came after Barnier said he would try to ram a social security bill through parliament without a vote as a last-minute concession was not enough to win support for the bill from the far-right National Rally (RN).


RN leader Marine Le Pen said her party would table its own no-confidence motion but will also vote for any similar bill by other parties.

"The French have had enough," she said. "Maybe they thought with Michel Barnier things would get better, but they were even worse."


https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-831643

Revelation Biosciences: FDA Acceptance of Gemini IND

 Phase 1b Study in CKD Patients to begin early 2025

Revelation Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: REVB) (the “Company” or “Revelation”), a clinical-stage life sciences company that is focused on harnessing the power of trained immunity for the treatment of disease, announced today that the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted its investigational new drug (IND) application for Gemini. This game changing milestone allows the Company to initiate its US based Phase 1b clinical study to evaluate the potential of Gemini as a preconditioning treatment in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241202245006/en/