JMP upgrades Intercept to Outperform on ‘good shot’ of upcoming trial success

JMP Securities analyst Liisa Bayko upgraded Intercept to Outperform from Market Perform as she thinks the REGENERATE trial, which will be reading out this quarter, has “a good shot” to hit on the fibrosis endpoint. REGENERATE would technically be considered a success if obeticholic acid hits either primary endpoint, but she thinks for “OCA” to be a commercial success the trial needs to hit on the fibrosis endpoint, Bayko tells investors. While she maintains a 60% probability of success view of the trial, she could see Intercept share trading above $200 with positive fibrosis data to support regulatory submissions, the analyst added. However, she could see downside to about $75 per share for the stock on a miss. Bayko has a $175 price target on Intercept shares.

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