Cowen analyst Charles Rhyee said he believes Centene’s (CNC) planned takeover of WellCare (WCG) could potentially accelerate Humana’s (HUM) timeline to acquire a scaled Medicaid asset, noting that it currently has the second smallest Medicaid book among managed care organizations. His analysis suggests Centene and Molina Healthcare (MOH) could both be “compelling acquisition targets” for Humana and believes the company has the financial capacity to make a bid for either, though Rhyee added that he does not believe Humana needs to rush a decision. Rhyee sees about a one year window in which Humana “can dictate the Medicaid M&A market” before Cigna (CI) and/or CVS Health (CVS) can get involved, he tells investors. While the analyst believes Centene makes the most sense as a potential target for Humana if the latter does not win the Texas STAR+PLUS contract, he suspects Centene is not willing to sell and believes Humana would have to offer a significant premium. If Humana does win the Texas STAR+PLUS contract it does not need to pursue large scale M&A, but a deal could be attractive anyway, Rhyee said.
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