GW Pharmaceuticals shares can rally 15% on imminent data, says Piper Jaffray

The pivotal Phase 3 data with epidiolex for seizures related to tuberous sclerosis complex are imminent, yet it’s hard to gauge how much investors care, Piper Jaffray analyst Danielle Brill tells investors in a research note. The analyst models a 50% probability of success for tuberous sclerosis complex and sees ~15% share upside if the data support label expansion. However, Brill adds that if safety looks clean and higher doses drive better efficacy, peak sales could be double her $400M estimate, driving potential upside of 20%-25%. If efficacy and/or safety signals occur that prevent label expansion for tuberous sclerosis complex, she estimates share downside of ~15%. This could be “substantially more” with a severe safety signal that broadly prohibits off-label use, however, the analyst adds. Brill has an Overweight rating on GW Pharmaceuticals with a $185 price target.

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