Biogen could rise, or fall, 5% based on Zolgensma label, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison noted that Novartis’ (NVS) gene therapy for the rare disease spinal muscular atrophy, Zolgensma, is expected to be approved by the FDA this month. He also noted that Biogen’s (BIIB) Spinraza is currently the only approved drug for SMA and represents 17% of Biogen’s estimated 2019 sales. The public data for Novartis’ Zolgensma are only in type 1 patients, or infants, said Harrison, who sees three potential scenarios for the drug’s label. In the first, which would involve broad approval across the three patient classes of infants, children and adults, Harrison thinks Novartis shares could be up 1-2%, Biogen could fall about 5%, Ionis (IONS), which receives royalties from Biogen, could be down about 10%, and Regenxbio (RGNX), which will receive royalties from Novartis, could be up 10-15% or more. In the second case, where Zolgensma is granted a Type 1 approval with no restriction, Harrison sees Novartis unchanged, Biogen down 1-3%, Ionis falling 3-5% and Regenxbio rising 5%. In the third scenario, where Zolgensma gets a Type 1 approval but with a weight/age restriction, the analyst thinks Novartis would be down 1-2%, Biogen would be up 2-3%, Ionis could rise 5% and Regenxbio could fall 5-10%. Harrison’s base case assumption is that Zolgensma will ultimately capture the majority market share in type 1 patients and a “significant portion” of type 2, or pediatric, patients.

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