An
analysis of stock market movers during the period of this year’s Esmo
congress gives biotech watchers little cause for happiness.
This year’s instalment of Europe’s largest oncology-focused medical
congress was another big pharma affair, with the battle between
Glaxosmithkline and Astrazeneca/Merck & Co’s Parp inhibitors
dominating the agenda. The job for many biotech investors was to figure
out the read-across to their favourite stocks.
A case in point was Mirati, which fell 17% on Amgen’s disappointing AMG 510 data, marking a pause in investors’ love affair with Kras targeting. True, the congress coincided with a tough trading period as a whole, but it is incredible that there was only one biotech winner, Seattle Genetics, whose market cap gained a remarkable $2bn over the weekend.
This analysis compares the share prices of Esmo-relevant biopharma companies at market close last Thursday, a day before the most important abstracts were unveiled, and close of play yesterday, formally the meeting’s last day.
It might seem strange that Seattle surged on remission rate data in a
phase I bladder cancer trial for enfortumab vedotin, a project already
filed for accelerated approval, and one that has generated survival data
in a highly impressive though uncontrolled phase II trial, EV-201.
But the filing is for second-line use, whereas Seattle’s Esmo data came from the front-line cohort of EV-103, a study combining the nectin-4 inhibitor with Keytruda. In the 45 evaluable PD-L1-positive and negative subjects the confirmed overall remission rate was 71%, with six complete remissions.
A case in point was Mirati, which fell 17% on Amgen’s disappointing AMG 510 data, marking a pause in investors’ love affair with Kras targeting. True, the congress coincided with a tough trading period as a whole, but it is incredible that there was only one biotech winner, Seattle Genetics, whose market cap gained a remarkable $2bn over the weekend.
This analysis compares the share prices of Esmo-relevant biopharma companies at market close last Thursday, a day before the most important abstracts were unveiled, and close of play yesterday, formally the meeting’s last day.
| Selected Esmo 2019 stocks: biggest risers | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Price change* | Relevant data at Esmo | Vantage coverage | ||
| Seattle Genetics | 18% | Enfortumab combo data & tucatinib | PD-L1 status moves centre stage in bladder cancer | ||
| Hutchison China Meditech | 16% | Surufatinb in neuroendocrine tumours | |||
| Faron | 7% | Clevegen in colorectal cancer | |||
| Merck KGaA | 1% | Various | Esmo 2019 preview – Parps on parade | ||
| Glaxosmithkline | 1% | Zejula in ovarian cancer maintenance | Glaxo’s Parp ambitions get a boost | ||
| Bristol-Myers Squibb | 1% | Opdivo in liver cancer & more TMB NSCLC analyses | Opdivo could have done better in liver cancer | ||
| Deciphera | 1% | Ripretinib in Invictus GIST study | |||
| Roche | 0% | Imvigor-130 survival readout | PD-L1 status moves centre stage in bladder cancer | ||
| Incyte | 0% | Tibsovo in cholangiocarcinoma | Targeted bile duct treatment pits Incyte against Agios | ||
| Turning Point | 0% | Reprotrectinib in Ros1-positive cancers | |||
| Note: difference between closing prices on Oct 1 and Sep 26. | |||||
But the filing is for second-line use, whereas Seattle’s Esmo data came from the front-line cohort of EV-103, a study combining the nectin-4 inhibitor with Keytruda. In the 45 evaluable PD-L1-positive and negative subjects the confirmed overall remission rate was 71%, with six complete remissions.
Waterfall
plot from 1st-line bladder cancer subjects given enfortumab and
Keytruda in EV-103. Source: Dr Christopher Hoimes & Esmo.
The potential of immunotherapy in platinum-eligible non-PD-L1
expressing bladder cancer has been thrown into doubt by Roche’s
Imvigor-130 trial, from which interim overall survival curves were
released for the first time at Esmo. The hint from EV-103 is that
checkpoint blockade combined with enfortumab could be the answer.
Seattle was also helped by remission data in colorectal cancer in a trial of tucatinib, acquired through the $614m buyout of Cascadian Therapeutics. The only other significant riser was Hutchison China Meditech, presenting PFS data with surufatinib/sulfatinib in neuroendocrine tumours, though the period also coincided with an offering of stock by its holding company.
Away from big pharma’s immunotherapy trials, targeted treatments like surufatinib had a strong Esmo presence, but biotech came away empty-handed. Deciphera revealed a remarkable PFS advantage for ripretinib in the phase III Invictus trial, while Turning Point presented impressive response rates backing reprotrectinib in Ros1-positive cancers, but both stocks barely crept up.
G1 Therapeutics was the biggest loser, as an Esmo presenter rubbished trilaciclib’s supposed survival benefit in breast cancer. And Immunomedics fell 12%, owing more to a further delay relating to sacituzumab’s complete response letter in breast cancer than to its admittedly positive result in bladder cancer.
As for the big story of Esmo – the three-way battle of Parp inhibitors – this was probably won by Lynparza, thanks to the cannily designed Profound study in prostate cancer, though in the ovarian setting Zejula might have the strongest dataset, vindicating Glaxosmithkline’s $5.1bn purchase of its maker, Tesaro.
Though Clovis was unmoved its Parp, Rubraca, also has an intriguing prostate cancer dataset. The worry is that this is too little, too late for the heavily indebted biotech.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/esmo-2019-makes-disappointing-read-across-biotech
Seattle was also helped by remission data in colorectal cancer in a trial of tucatinib, acquired through the $614m buyout of Cascadian Therapeutics. The only other significant riser was Hutchison China Meditech, presenting PFS data with surufatinib/sulfatinib in neuroendocrine tumours, though the period also coincided with an offering of stock by its holding company.
Away from big pharma’s immunotherapy trials, targeted treatments like surufatinib had a strong Esmo presence, but biotech came away empty-handed. Deciphera revealed a remarkable PFS advantage for ripretinib in the phase III Invictus trial, while Turning Point presented impressive response rates backing reprotrectinib in Ros1-positive cancers, but both stocks barely crept up.
G1 Therapeutics was the biggest loser, as an Esmo presenter rubbished trilaciclib’s supposed survival benefit in breast cancer. And Immunomedics fell 12%, owing more to a further delay relating to sacituzumab’s complete response letter in breast cancer than to its admittedly positive result in bladder cancer.
As for the big story of Esmo – the three-way battle of Parp inhibitors – this was probably won by Lynparza, thanks to the cannily designed Profound study in prostate cancer, though in the ovarian setting Zejula might have the strongest dataset, vindicating Glaxosmithkline’s $5.1bn purchase of its maker, Tesaro.
Though Clovis was unmoved its Parp, Rubraca, also has an intriguing prostate cancer dataset. The worry is that this is too little, too late for the heavily indebted biotech.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/esmo-2019-makes-disappointing-read-across-biotech
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