China Data Suggests Coronavirus Deaths To Slow: Nobel Scientist

Trends in the number of fatalities in China from the coronavirus suggest that the number of new deaths may decrease in the coming week, according to an analysis by Stanford University professor Michael Levitt, the winner of a Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2013.

As of yesterday, 492 deaths and some 24,000 coronavirus illnesses have been reported, with more than 97% of the deaths in hard-hit Hubei Province.  Yet there is a big difference in the death rate in and outside of Hubei. At only 0.18%, the death rate outside of Hubei “is comparable to the mortality of influenza,” he said.  By contrast, the death rate for victims in Hubei is 3%. The death rate outside of Hubei Province is 16 times lower and has stayed relatively low.
Though the number of deaths was larger than a day earlier, the rate of increase is slowing, Levitt said in a written daily analysis. “Specifically, the overall ratio of deaths today to deaths yesterday has decreased steadily” since Jan. 25, he said. “This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week” Levitt wrote.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2020/02/05/china-data-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-to-slow-nobel-scientist/#1113c47f5132