The coronavirus ‘tipping point’

Coronavirus causes little more than a cough if it stays in the nose and throat, which it does for the majority of people infected. Danger starts when it reaches the lungs, according to a report by the World Health Organization. At that point, one in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications, and 6% become critical, suffering respiratory failure and/or failure of other vital systems, and possibly septic shock.

The progression from mild to severe can occur “very, very quickly,” said Bruce Aylward, a WHO assistant director-general.

10-15% of mild-to-moderate patients progress to severe. Of those, 15-20% progress to critical. Patients at highest risk include people age 60+, and those with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

“When you get a bad, overwhelming infection, everything starts to fall apart in a cascade. You pass the tipping point where everything is going downhill and, at some point, you can’t get it back,” David Morens, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said. While that tipping point appears to occur earlier in older people, healthy young adults have also succumbed to the illness. It’s unclear whether some people are genetically more susceptible.

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