- The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has created a model to project future cases of COVID-19 in the United States.
- The study has not yet been peer reviewed and should not be used to guide clinical practice.
- Projections are based on the assumption that full social distancing measures will be observed through at least May 2020.
A new model predicts coronavirus deaths will peak in the United States on April 16, though the research is a preprint, meaning
it has not yet been peer reviewed. The peer review process is a vital
part of assessing new medical research and identifies weaknesses in its
assumptions, methods and conclusions.
Full updated results are available here: COVID-19 Projections.
When a state is chosen under the drop down menu, the infographic projects how many hospital beds, ICU beds, bed shortage (if any) and ventilators may be necessary in each state to address patient need. Local mandates and travel restrictions are reported as well.
So, why release the estimate if it is a preprint? The University of
Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said
colleagues asked them to develop the models at the university’s school
of medicine and soon heard from other hospital systems and state
governments.
“Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan,” the IHME wrote.
The model, published online by IHME, predicts the peak use of hospital resources, including beds, ICU beds and invasive ventilators, for COVID-19 patients in each state. The study used data on confirmed coronavirus deaths from the Word Health Organization (WHO) and local and national governments as well as data on hospital capacity and utilization for each of the states.
While peak dates vary from state to state, the IHME forecasts the national peak for hospital resource use will be on April 15, assuming that current social distancing measures are observed through May 2020. The next day, according to the model, will be the peak in deaths for the nation.
The earliest peak date for hospital resource use is predicted to be April 8 in New Jersey, while the latest is predicted for May 21 in Missouri. For COVID-19 deaths, the earliest peak date was March 23 in Vermont, the day before the state issued its stay at home order, while the latest is predicted to be May 20, in Virginia, where a stay at home order was put in place on March 30.
The model also estimates the total number of deaths in each state by August 4. New York is projected to have the most deaths at 16,261, with Florida in second at 6,897 deaths.
After a week of daily updates, the IHME wrote in an update on April 2 that the model has done well in predicting daily deaths. The model has also been updated as stay at home orders are issued across the country and new data becomes available. While the initial estimate for total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. was 81,114, the IHME estimate has increased to 93,531.
This table was last updated April 2:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/490856-when-will-coronaviruses-cases-peak-in-your-state
Full updated results are available here: COVID-19 Projections.
When a state is chosen under the drop down menu, the infographic projects how many hospital beds, ICU beds, bed shortage (if any) and ventilators may be necessary in each state to address patient need. Local mandates and travel restrictions are reported as well.
“Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan,” the IHME wrote.
The model, published online by IHME, predicts the peak use of hospital resources, including beds, ICU beds and invasive ventilators, for COVID-19 patients in each state. The study used data on confirmed coronavirus deaths from the Word Health Organization (WHO) and local and national governments as well as data on hospital capacity and utilization for each of the states.
While peak dates vary from state to state, the IHME forecasts the national peak for hospital resource use will be on April 15, assuming that current social distancing measures are observed through May 2020. The next day, according to the model, will be the peak in deaths for the nation.
The earliest peak date for hospital resource use is predicted to be April 8 in New Jersey, while the latest is predicted for May 21 in Missouri. For COVID-19 deaths, the earliest peak date was March 23 in Vermont, the day before the state issued its stay at home order, while the latest is predicted to be May 20, in Virginia, where a stay at home order was put in place on March 30.
The model also estimates the total number of deaths in each state by August 4. New York is projected to have the most deaths at 16,261, with Florida in second at 6,897 deaths.
After a week of daily updates, the IHME wrote in an update on April 2 that the model has done well in predicting daily deaths. The model has also been updated as stay at home orders are issued across the country and new data becomes available. While the initial estimate for total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. was 81,114, the IHME estimate has increased to 93,531.
This table was last updated April 2:
| Last updated: April 2 | PEAK USE OF RESOURCES | PEAK DAILY DEATHS | TOTAL ESTIMATED DEATHS (BY AUG 4) |
| USA | April 15 | April 16 | 93,531 |
| Alabama | April 17 | April 19 | 5,516 |
| Alaska | April 15 | April 14 | 148 |
| Arizona | April 27 | April 26 | 1,387 |
| Arkansas | April 26 | April 26 | 619 |
| California | April 26 | April 26 | 5068 |
| Colorado | April 17 | April 18 | 2154 |
| Connecticut | April 15 | April 15 | 1144 |
| Delaware | April 11 | April 11 | 166 |
| Florida | May 3 | May 4 | 6897 |
| Georgia | April 24 | April 25 | 3232 |
| Hawaii | May 3 | May 1 | 372 |
| Idaho | April 26 | April 26 | 397 |
| Illinois | April 20 | April 20 | 3386 |
| Indiana | April 19 | April 20 | 1160 |
| Iowa | May 1 | May 1 | 1488 |
| Kansas | April 28 | April 26 | 640 |
| Kentucky | May 16 | May 13 | 821 |
| Louisiana | April 9 | April 10 | 1834 |
| Maine | April 17 | April 15 | 364 |
| Maryland | April 29 | April 28 | 1766 |
| Massachusetts | April 16 | April 17 | 2381 |
| Michigan | April 9 | April 11 | 3169 |
| Minnesota | April 22 | April 21 | 932 |
| Mississippi | April 21 | April 20 | 918 |
| Missouri | May 21 | May 18 | 1290 |
| Montana | April 26 | April 25 | 266 |
| Nebraska | April 23 | April 23 | 447 |
| Nevada | April 20 | April 18 | 799 |
| New Hampshire | April 17 | April 15 | 331 |
| New Jersey | April 8 | April 9 | 2117 |
| New Mexico | April 24 | April 22 | 525 |
| New York | April 9 | April 10 | 16261 |
| North Carolina | April 26 | April 27 | 1534 |
| North Dakota | April 21 | April 20 | 169 |
| Ohio | April 19 | April 19 | 1898 |
| Oklahoma | April 23 | April 23 | 1419 |
| Oregon | May 5 | May 2 | 558 |
| Pennsylvania | April 18 | April 19 | 2023 |
| Rhode Island | April 20 | April 16 | 259 |
| South Carolina | April 28 | April 28 | 1095 |
| South Dakota | May 4 | April 29 | 204 |
| Tennessee | April 19 | April 20 | 3422 |
| Texas | May 6 | May 6 | 6392 |
| Utah | April 23 | April 23 | 580 |
| Vermont | April 9 | April 2 | 58 |
| Virginia | May 20 | May 20 | 3152 |
| Washington | April 11 | April 9 | 978 |
| West Virginia | May 4 | May 1 | 487 |
| Wisconsin | April 27 | April 28 | 951 |
| Wyoming | May 4 | April 28 | 140 |
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