3/4 attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazilian Amazon during largely unmitigated epidemic

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1. Lewis F. Buss1,*, 
2. View ORCID ProfileCarlos A. Prete Jr2,*, 
3. View ORCID ProfileClaudia M. M. Abrahim3,*, 
4. View ORCID ProfileAlfredo Mendrone Jr4,5,*, 
5. View ORCID ProfileTassila Salomon6,7,*, 
6. View ORCID ProfileCesar de Almeida-Neto4,5, 
7. View ORCID ProfileRafael F. O. França8, 
8. View ORCID ProfileMaria C. Belotti2, 
9. View ORCID ProfileMaria P. S. S. Carvalho3, 
10. View ORCID ProfileAllyson G. Costa3, 
11. View ORCID ProfileMyuki A. E. Crispim3, 
12. View ORCID ProfileSuzete C. Ferreira4,5, 
13. Nelson A. Fraiji3, 
14. View ORCID ProfileSusie Gurzenda9, 
15. View ORCID ProfileCharles Whittaker10, 
16. Leonardo T. Kamaura11, 
17. Pedro L. Takecian11, 
18. View ORCID ProfilePedro da Silva Peixoto11, 
19. View ORCID ProfileMarcio K. Oikawa12, 
20. View ORCID ProfileAnna S. Nishiya4,5, 
21. View ORCID ProfileVanderson Rocha4,5, 
22. View ORCID ProfileNanci A. Salles4, 
23. View ORCID ProfileAndreza Aruska de Souza Santos13, 
24. View ORCID ProfileMartirene A. da Silva3, 
25. View ORCID ProfileBrian Custer14,15, 
26. View ORCID ProfileKris V. Parag16, 
27. View ORCID ProfileManoel Barral-Netto17, 
28. View ORCID ProfileMoritz U. G. Kraemer18, 
29. View ORCID ProfileRafael H. M. Pereira19, 
30. View ORCID ProfileOliver G. Pybus18, 
31. View ORCID ProfileMichael P. Busch14,15, 
32. View ORCID ProfileMárcia C. Castro9, 
33. View ORCID ProfileChristopher Dye18, 
34. View ORCID ProfileVitor H. Nascimento2, 
35. View ORCID ProfileNuno R. Faria1,16,18,†, 
36. View ORCID ProfileEster C. Sabino1,†

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Science  08 Dec 2020:
eabe9728
DOI: 10.1126/science.abe9728

PDF: https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728.full.pdf&hl=en&sa=T&oi=ucasa&ct=ufr&ei=WHrVX979DcedywScwIm4AQ&scisig=AAGBfm2eIRuOek-JA40VYwHQ6fcvEH8vGQ

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly in the Brazilian Amazon and the attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of a largely unmitigated epidemic. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June, one month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, capital of Amazonas state, 44% of the population had detectable IgG antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October is 29%. These results confirm that, when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a high fraction of the population causing high mortality.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728.abstract