Eran Bendavid
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ECI.13484
Abstract
Background and Aims: The most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)
for controlling the spread of COVID-19 are mandatory stay-at-home and business closures.
Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate
the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond
those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).
Methods: We first estimate COVID-19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation
in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands,
Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first-difference models with fixed effects,
we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic
dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries
that did not implement mandatory stay-at-home and business closures, as comparison countries
for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons).
Results: Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in
9 out of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden that implemented only lrNPIs
(Spain had a non-significant effect). After subtracting the epidemic and lrNPI effects, we find
no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country. In France, e.g.,
the effect of mrNPIs was +7% (95CI -5%-19%) when compared with Sweden, and +13%
(-12%-38%) when compared with South Korea (positive means pro-contagion). The 95%
confidence intervals excluded 30% declines in all 16 comparisons and 15% declines in 11/16
comparisons.
Conclusions: While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on
case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with
less restrictive interventions
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eci.13484
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