Daily COVID-19 cases in the southern manufacturing hub of Guangdong province could reach more than 75,000 if curbs are removed and travel is allowed to return to a fifth of pre-pandemic levels , said the Chinese disease control body.
As China’s efforts to maintain its “zero-COVID” strategy come under increasing scrutiny, Guangdong, which borders Hong Kong, is on the front lines of a new outbreak fueled by coronaviruses. highly infectious variants like Omicron.
The city of Shenzhen has suspended public transport, carried out mass testing and advised residents to stay put as it tries to slow an outbreak that saw 75 new cases on Sunday.
According to a study published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC), continued implementation of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs) such as mask mandates, social distancing and lockdowns will keep infections to a manageable level.
“As booster vaccination increases in 2022, inbound international travel may increase slightly, but a suppression strategy must be maintained to ensure the resulting COVID-19 outbreak can be kept under control,” it said. -he declares.
The CCDC study, published in its weekly newsletter on Friday, used models based on real data to show the impact of easing restrictions. The authors did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The models showed that if the current suppression strategy was maintained, including a two-week quarantine for incoming visitors, infections could be kept low even with a 20% resumption of travel.
However, a shift to a “coexistence” strategy, with most NPIs lifted, would bring annual cases to 6.85 million and deaths to 64,626. If travel fully returns to 2019 levels, cases would top 10 million during the year.
Besides Shenzhen, other cities in China have also taken strong action to contain the latest outbreak, with Shanghai sealing off entire neighborhoods and closing schools.
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