10 Reasons Why U.S. Must Focus More On China Than Ukraine

 As Western officials gathered in Brussels to send even more artillery from depleted weapon stocks and step up the production to help Ukraine, Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said in opening remarks that the meeting was taking place at "a critical time for our security." His comments pointed to the slow realization that Russia is making gains in Ukraine's east and President Zelenskyy's stated ambition of ejecting Russia from all occupied territories, including Crimea, is becoming increasingly distant.

As we approach the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western powers have poured over $115 billion to help in its defense. The justification for committing such large sums to an ‘as long as it takes’ war is to deny Russia any permanent territorial victory under a rules-based international order that respects sovereign borders. Ukraine is fighting the West's war to save "democracy and freedom," this argument goes, so the West's investment is a bargain because it doesn't involve western blood and limbs.

While that may be true to some extent, it would be unwise to lose sight of another nation that poses an equal, if not, bigger threat - China. Democratic missteps in Taiwan (such as Nancy Pelosi's needless visit to Taipei triggering a dangerous escalation in the South China Sea) and the Biden administration's laughable handling of the China balloon episode, it is becoming increasingly clear that America is distracted by and fighting the wrong war. While Russia remains a nuclear-armed superpower with advanced weapons systems and possesses impressive space capabilities, Russia, compared to China, pales as a threat to the United States.

Here are ten reasons that illustrate why China is uniquely positioned to threaten America across multiple dimensions.

• China is a technology powerhouse. Ford Motor announced recently that it is building a battery plant in Michigan with production and services technology licensed from the Chinese company CATL, the world's largest battery maker. CATL already supplies Tesla and BMW and its batteries power a third of all E.V. cars on the road.
• It wields wide industrial dominance. China is already the world's leader in numerous industries, including iron, steel, aluminum, textiles, cement, cell phones, personal computers, shoes, chemicals, toys, electronics, rail cars, and ships.
• It is extending dominance in new industries. China's 'Made in China 2025' (MIC 2025) program, backed by the government, would extend this dominance to ten new industries, including next-generation I.T., robotics, artificial intelligence, aerospace, new energy vehicles, and new materials, biomedicine, and agricultural equipment. China is already the world's largest producer of peaceful nuclear power. If China is successful, there won't be a single advanced sector where the country isn't a key player.
• China has expanded its regional leadership. Through initiatives such as the One Belt One Road (OBOR) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which China essentially controls, China provides low-cost loans on easy terms to smaller countries that the West has ignored.
• China exploits its 1950-era accommodating foreign policy. As the Asia for Educators page at Columbia University notes, Chinese foreign policy is rooted in the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality, and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. The non-interference policy allows China to strike no-questions-asked deals with mineral-rich authoritarian governments like Saudi Arabia and Iran, a luxury the West does not have. It has signed mining contracts for large swathes of land to develop and extract African minerals. Meanwhile, American foreign policy is often based on ideological values such as protecting human rights and freedom.
• China sports the world's largest standing army. With over 2 million active soldiers, China has the world's largest standing army. It is third behind the U.S. and Russia in its air force strength.
• China is a nuclear nation. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that China has an arsenal of 260 total warheads as of 2015, the fourth largest nuclear arsenal amongst the five nuclear weapon states.
• China is a permanent UNSC member. China has been a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. Working closely with Russia, another permanent member, China has consistently thwarted American attempts to sanction rogue nations.  
• The Chinese renminbi is part of the SDR. The IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket contains five world currencies - the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling. China first entered the SDR basket with a weight of 10.92% in 2016, which the IMF strengthened to 12.28% in August 2022, reflecting the increasingly important role the Chinese currency plays in world markets. The U.S. dollar also rose in prominence, moving up from 41.73% of the basket in 2016 to 43.38%, a rare instance when Chinese gains came from the weakening influence of other currencies such as the euro, yen, and sterling. Also, China is making more and more deals with other countries to use their own currencies instead of the dollar in international trade. For example, during Xi Jinping's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, the two countries agreed to trade oil, bypassing the dollar. This could severely weaken the US dollar.
• Chinese consumption could help world economies recover. The world's bourses cheered when China finally opened up its economy after retiring strict Covid-19 restrictions. CEOs began making the pilgrimage to China to renew fractured supply chains, make investment deals, and build relationships. The West can be without Russia, but it relies on China to buy its exports and make its products.

Neocons argue that America is strong enough to fight two concurrent wars in two different theaters. Perhaps, it is. But America has never been tested against two nuclear powers simultaneously. And such a scenario will undoubtedly have adverse, long-lasting effects on the economy and the people. Even as Washington fights Russia to ensure sovereignty for Ukraine, it would be wise to keep an ever watchful eye on China and reserve resources to counter Beijing’s aggression.

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