Ladenburg Thalmann demonstrated confidence in Aileron Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:ALRN) shares, with a significant increase in the company's stock price target. The firm doubled the price target from $9.00 to $19.00 while reiterating a Buy rating. This revision reflects the firm's anticipation of Aileron's upcoming biomarker data report for its drug candidate LTI-03, which is expected in the third quarter of 2024.
Aileron Therapeutics, previously known as Lung Therapeutics, is on track to release biomarker data for LTI-03 in a study involving 24 patients. The study's design is notable for the extensive range of biomarkers being assessed, which is considered unparalleled in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) trials. The data will encompass over 25 biomarkers collected from various sources, including peripheral blood cells, plasma, and bronchoalveolar lavage.
The significance of this study lies in the fact that, despite the existence of two approved medicines for IPF, there are currently no established biomarkers to guide physicians in treatment. The industry's search for predictive biomarkers has been ongoing, with the IPF PROLIFIC consortium recently identifying more than 10 blood-based protein biomarkers that are indicative of changes in forced vital capacity (FVC), an important clinical trial endpoint for IPF.
The detailed findings from the PROLIFIC consortium are slated to be presented at the American Thoracic Society (ATS) conference in May 2024. Should the biomarkers identified by Aileron overlap with those recognized by the consortium, it could lead to significant validation from industry experts. This could potentially expedite the design of Aileron's phase 2/3 trials and pave the way for accelerated FDA approval, which could occur as early as 2028.
Ladenburg Thalmann's revised price target is based on an increased probability of success (PoS) for LTI-03, which has been adjusted from 20% to 40%. This adjustment is a direct result of ALRN's commitment to utilizing biomarker readouts to guide its future clinical trials.
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