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Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Trump taps Keith Kellogg as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia

 President-elect Trump on Wednesday announced his appointment of Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general who served as chief of staff on Trump’s National Security Council during his first term, as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia.

Trump praised Kellogg as being with him “right from the beginning” and noted his distinguished military and business career. 

“Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” the president-elect said in a statement.

Trump has promised to bring a swift end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, leveraging his relationships with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. That has raised anxiety among Kyiv’s supporters that the president-elect will seek a deal that would cede Ukrainian land or jeopardize the country’s future security. 

Kellogg is seen as highly loyal to Trump, which is likely a reason he’s won the appointment. This sends the signal to Russia, Ukraine and European allies that he will directly channel the president’s vision on Ukraine and Russia.

Kellogg, in his writings, has proposed implementing a ceasefire along the front lines, while recognizing Ukrainian claims to territory occupied by Russia. He called for pressuring Putin to the negotiating table by threatening to remove all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, but he also argued for threatening to halt U.S. military assistance to Kyiv to ensure its place at the negotiating table. 

Kellogg’s selection garnered lukewarm early reactions from some focused on maintaining robust U.S. support for Ukraine. 

“It was a gulp — not horrible, not amazing,” said one security analyst based in Washington, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly.

“He is not the strongest on Ukraine but he doesn’t seem ideologically awful and there is room for improvement. His plans on Ukraine have been so-so.”

But Oleh Shamshur, a former Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., said that, although he is only familiar with Kellogg through the media, he is pessimistic about his appointment. 

“As I understand, he totally accepts the logic of Trump’s ‘peace plan’ as related by” Vice-President-elect JD Vance, he said, referring to Vance’s support for ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia and abandoning plans for Ukraine to join NATO. 

“At the end of the day, he and the others will be mostly implementers of their masters’ will,” Shamshur added. “So, it is really important to hear from Trump what is his plan. In Kyiv you can hear quite different ideas as to what we can expect with the advent of the Big Guy. I am mostly pessimistic.”

“He’s better than any other rumored option,” said one European diplomat. “He preached that negotiations should be from the strong foothold and support for Ukraine is necessary.”

Kellogg has previously expressed skepticism of Russia and support for arming Ukraine.

“You have to give more arms to them [the Ukrainians] because you can’t trust the Russians,” Kellogg said in an interview in July with Voice of America.  

Other supporters of Ukraine have cited the need to push back on Russia’s aggression, and the dangers of setting a precedent that could be used by China to invade Taiwan, in arguing why it is in the U.S.’s interest to back Kyiv.

Kellogg, for his part, has largely focused on how an “America First approach” to resolving conflict can be successful without specifying why the U.S. should back Ukraine. 

“Under an America First approach to the Ukraine conflict, once it became a stalemate and a war of attrition, it was in the best interests of Ukraine, America, and the world to seek a ceasefire and negotiate a peace agreement with Russia,” he wrote in an April 2024 proposal for ending the war. 

Kellogg called for a ceasefire and negotiated settlement in which the U.S. would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia would not make further advances. He further called for delaying, significantly, any plans for Ukraine to join NATO. While President Biden has held back on pressing NATO to issue an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance, NATO said during its July summit declaration that Kyiv is on an “irreversible path” to join the alliance.

Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia,” he wrote.  

“To convince Putin to join peace talks, President Biden and other NATO leaders should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees.”

Kellogg put forth similar proposals in a December 2023 article for The National Interest. 

“While less satisfying than (what increasingly appears to be an unachievable) total military victory, this outcome would represent a strategic defeat for Russia and a strengthening of American national security and the Western alliance,” Kellogg wrote. 

“Some Republicans argue that the Ukraine conflict is a European matter of no consequence to the United States. Strategically, as his public comments reinforce, Trump disagrees. He sees ending the war as a major foreign policy issue — one that he plans to accomplish on day one.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5012556-trump-appoints-kellogg-ukraine/

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