'2 spy agencies float possible foreign weapon behind ‘Havana syndrome,’ most find no links'

A report from the intelligence community released Friday maintains its conclusion that a foreign adversary is not behind the mysterious ailments plaguing government workers, but it opened the door to the possibility overseas actors have developed the capability to do so.

Out of seven total agencies tasked with reviewing the source behind anomalous health incidents (AHIs) first reported in Cuba — which have come to be known as “Havana syndrome” — five stood behind a 2023 assessment that found it unlikely a foreign nation was behind the attacks.

But two shifted their stance, with one determining there was essentially a 50-50 chance a foreign adversary had crafted — but not deployed — a weapon capable of such an attack while the other gave similar odds that such a weapon may have already been used.

“One judges there’s roughly even chance a foreign actor has used a novel weapon or prototype device to harm a small undetermined subset of the U.S. government personnel or dependents who reported medical symptoms or sensory phenomena,” an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said on a call with reporters.

“That language is very precise, because none of those components can pinpoint or identify specific events, whether [in] Havana or anywhere else, because … they agree there’s no intelligence linking any foreign actor to a specific event.”

The report does not identify which agencies were behind which conclusions, but it notes that the agencies who floated the possibility of foreign involvement did so with low confidence.

While the bulk of the report stands behind a 2023 ODNI assessment finding no evidence a foreign adversary was behind the attack, the update comes on the heels of a GOP report from a House Intelligence subcommittee concluding it was likely a foreign power was behind the attacks.

However Democrats on the panel swiftly called into question the rigor of that report, saying Republicans failed to uncover any new evidence.

Friday’s ODNI report is the latest to weigh a series of unexplained ailments experienced by those working in the intelligence community, State Department, and elsewhere, complaining of symptoms ranging from headaches to nausea to vertigo and trouble focusing.

“One component assessed it is likely a foreign actor has a [radio frequency] anti personnel capability, and that this capability can cause biological effects consistent with some of the symptoms reported as possible AHI,” the ODNI official said.

The other five agencies, however, still believe it is unlikely that a foreign adversary has a weapon capable of causing the symptoms experienced by AHI reporters. Rather than a lack of evidence a foreign power is behind the attack, they concluded “intelligence reporting points away from key US adversaries being involved.” 

The official said that included reporting indicating credible foreign adversaries and knowledgeable organizations “either expressing surprise or denying their involvement privately.”

ODNI stressed that the report was not meant to cast doubt on the very real symptoms experienced by reporters, a group that now includes about 300 people.

“The incredible analysts working this topic are human. Those reporting AHIs are our colleagues and friends. The goal of our analysis is to find out what happened to them, not to question whether they had medical symptoms. As I said, we follow the facts wherever they lead, and many of us were surprised by the results,” they said.

That rankled those who have reported AHIs, who have both felt sidelined by the agency and believe they were targeted in an attack.

“The evidence has only moved closer to the Intelligence Community acknowledging the involvement of a foreign adversary, not away,” said Mark Zaid, an attorney who represents more than two dozen AHI victims.

“More recently, senior [National Security Council] officials recently shared information with victims, including some of my clients, that they described as having ‘vindicated’ their views. The only view that could apply to is that a foreign adversary was responsible for at least some AHIs,” he added.

“If AHIs could be explained away by other factors, then what explains the sudden development by so many AHI victims of traumatic brain injuries? And why is the US government paying victims compensation for work related injuries that seemingly…do not exist?”

House Intelligence Republicans also viewed the report as a victory.

“This new intelligence, I believe, should completely change the assessment of our adversaries’ capabilities and the risks to our personnel,” Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) said in a statement.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), however, said the report is part of a “frustrating challenge” of “ real and serious effects, some of which we cannot currently explain.”

“The updated Intelligence Community Assessment confirms that despite considerable efforts by the IC, we cannot tie any AHI report to actions by a foreign actor. At the same time, the shift in key judgments by two intelligence agencies serves to reinforce how critical it is that the IC remain focused on collecting and analyzing new intelligence that could answer the outstanding questions about AHIs,” he said.

The intelligence community has come under fire for its handling of AHIs and those who have reported symptoms.

In a Senate Intelligence report last month, the panel found shortcomings in the CIA’s response to “Havana Syndrome,” finding that the CIA’s “evolving organizational position have greatly complicated CIA’s ability to consistently and transparently facilitate medical care, provide compensation and other benefits, and communicate clearly about AHIs to the workforce.”

The National Security Council on Friday said the report “only reinforces why it is vital that the U.S. Government continue critical research, investigate credible incidents, and strengthen efforts to provide timely care and long-term clinical follow-up.”

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/5079301-havana-syndrome-foreign-power-intel-community/