by Walter Russell Mead
Even before senior national security figures discussed secret war plans over a Signal chat that inadvertently included a magazine editor, it was clear that March Madness has broken out in the Middle East.
Military conflicts and political unrest are simultaneously on the boil across the region. The Trump administration is sending a second carrier strike group to the region as the U.S. confrontation with the Houthis intensifies.
Iran, staggered by its catastrophic and humiliating losses to Israel, hesitates between the alternatives of nuclear breakout and negotiated settlement with its foes.
As Turkish financial markets melted down and demonstrators across the country called for democracy, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jailed his most formidable rival on corruption charges. Israeli troops returned to Gaza even as the Israel Defense Forces stepped up the pressure in Syria and Lebanon.
Back home, Israeli streets filled again with protesters denouncing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government even as the cabinet fired the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency and initiated proceedings to oust the attorney general—and Houthi missiles sent millions of Israelis into bomb shelters.
With so much going on, it’s more vital than ever to distinguish between the deep trends bringing lasting change to the region and the dramatic but ultimately less important events that often dominate the headlines. Among the major developments, we can count the strategic defeat of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” Russia’s loss of influence following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey’s increasing engagement in Middle East politics, and the continuing decline of Egypt as a regional force.
With Iran, Russia and Egypt all less influential than before, and Turkey still in the early stages of building up its Middle East presence, power in the region has passed to Persian Gulf states as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates pursue rival visions and jostle for influence.
Meanwhile, Israel is emerging from its war with Iran and its proxies more powerful and less isolated than before, but its core problems, both internal and external, remain unresolved. Not since the aftermath of the Israeli War of Independence have the Palestinians been this weak or this divided. Both in Gaza and the West Bank, Palestinians may be facing new Israeli annexations as the conflict grinds on. Yet Israel’s worst nightmare, the Iranian nuclear program, is if anything becoming a greater danger. Palestinian resistance remains a thorn in Israel’s flesh, while Israel’s economy and society stagger under the burden of a long and costly war. Internal divisions among Israelis threaten to split the country between right and left, religious and secular.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears to be entering a new stage. Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have come to the end of the road. Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel was the greatest strategic blunder by Palestinian leaders since the rejection of the United Nations partition resolution in 1947. The Oct. 7 war has, thus far, brought Gaza’s population nothing but misery and death. Civilians are caught between relentless Israeli attacks and fanatical Hamas terrorists who hide military facilities in hospitals and schools.
It isn’t only Hamas and the civilians under its rule who have suffered. The war has exposed the haplessness of the Palestinian Authority. Unable to resist Israel or negotiate with it, the authority has been essentially irrelevant during the greatest crisis for the Palestinian movement in nearly 80 years.
There will be territorial as well as political consequences from this defeat. Israel will likely force losses of Palestinian territory in Gaza as it expands its security perimeter. If enough West Bank Palestinians listen to the siren call of terrorism and revenge, there could be Israeli annexations in the West Bank as well.
Palestinians are right to fear that President Trump’s interest in “relocating” Palestinians from Gaza is an important break. Encouraging Palestinians to emigrate from Gaza and the West Bank could become a more prominent feature of Israeli and American policy. Given disenchantment with their political leaders and despair over the prospects of economic development, more Palestinians may choose to check out of the conflict and seek better lives elsewhere.
The biggest question in the Middle East today involves the future of America’s role. All eyes are on Donald Trump. Everyone wants American support; all fear the consequences if the American president sides with their rivals.
Mr. Trump’s agenda in the Middle East is a simple one. He wants what every American president has wanted since World War II: a quiet Middle East that pumps oil and gas and buys American goods (including arms) without entangling the U.S. in more wars. While the Trump administration is pursuing a policy toward the trans-Atlantic alliance that produces upheaval and is challenging China on trade, it wants the Middle East to settle down.
Middle East powers seeking Mr. Trump’s friendship should bear this in mind. The countries who offer him the most stability at the lowest cost are the ones most likely to enjoy his support.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.