The cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is expected to be as high as 2.8%
Social Security's COLA announcement must be published by Nov. 1.
Some furloughed government workers will return to work to produce a key inflation report for September, allowing for the calculation of Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment.
Despite the government shutdown, some workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics will resume work on the September consumer-price index, which calculates price changes for various goods.
The CPI report, which was slated to be published on Oct. 15, will now be released Oct. 24, according to statement by the BLS.
"This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits," the BLS said in its statement.
THe COLA has been delayed in the past, such as during the 2013 government shutdown, when the announcement came on Oct. 30 of that year.
The consumer-price index is a crucial data component relied on by investors, businesses and the Federal Reserve, which uses it to weigh decisions on interest rates. The September CPI report is also a component used to calculate the annual COLA for Social Security benefits, which is required to be published by Nov. 1.
The cost-of-living adjustment is expected to be 2.8% for 2026, according to independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson, who has been tracking the figure for almost 30 years. The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older adults, said it expects the COLA to be 2.7%.
The COLA projections for 2026 compare to this year's COLA of 2.5%. The COLA has averaged 2.6% over more than 20 years.
A spokesperson at the Social Security Administration did not immediately respond to MarketWatch's request for comment.
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