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Thursday, May 7, 2026

Acadia misses estimates but reaffirms 2026 outlook and pivotal ADP catalyst

 

Acadia Q1 2026 revenue $268M (+11% YoY), EPS $0.02 (-82% YoY), misses estimates but reaffirms 2026 outlook and pivotal ADP catalyst

  • Q1 revenue $268M, +11% YoY adjusted; both DAYBUE and NUPLAZID grew solidly.
  • DAYBUE sales $101M, +20% YoY, boosted by strong initial DAYBUE STIX uptake.
  • NUPLAZID sales $167M, +6% YoY; 8% demand, 11% referral growth despite refill delays.
  • 2026 revenue guidance $1.22–$1.28B and brand-level sales and expense guidance reaffirmed; back-half weighted.
  • Remlifanserin Phase II in Alzheimer's psychosis on track for August–October 2026 readout.
  • Trofinetide Japan Phase III enrollment ahead of plan; top-line data expected September–November 2026.
  • Cash balance $851M, positive operating cash flow, supporting internal pipeline and business development optionality.
  • SG&A up to $171M from $126M, reflecting sales force expansion and marketing spend.
  • European trofinetide reexamination ongoing; decision expected by late June, potential EU Rett opportunity.
  • R&D head retiring year-end; remains through key remlifanserin milestones, but succession introduces transition risk.
  • Main concern: High-impact remlifanserin Alzheimer's psychosis data and European trofinetide decision could materially alter outlook.
  • Strong quarter, driven by robust DAYBUE growth, stable NUPLAZID demand, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance.

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