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Thursday, November 12, 2020

Lilley, Regeneron COVID antibody drugs won’t do much for top lines: analysts

When Eli Lilly won emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 antibody drug, bamlanivimab, earlier this week, beating Regeneron to the finish line in a closely watched race, it was viewed as both good news and bad news.

Now that Wall Street analysts have had a couple of days to digest the approval, some have concluded the bad news may outweigh the good—for both Lilly and Regeneron.

That’s because bamlanivimab’s label limits its use to non-hospitalized patients who are deemed to be at risk of developing severe COVID-19. What’s more, the label warns that the drug may actually worsen outcomes in hospitalized patients who need oxygen or ventilation.

“This suggests that such cautionary language may be applied to all antibodies for the disease, and thus would limit [Regeneron’s] antibody to a similar patient population and cautionary language,” said analysts at SVB Leerink in a note to investors.

Then there’s the confusion issue. Lilly’s label mentions no benefit from bamlanivimab in reducing mortality from COVID, saying only that the antibody treatment reduces hospitalization or emergency-room visits in the 28 days after treatment.

“Physicians are likely to wonder how to define who might be at risk of hospitalization, since the individuals who go to the hospital are frequently difficult to predict,” SVB Leerink wrote. “On the other side of the indication, to be eligible you can’t be too sick, or in need of supplemental oxygen or hospital care, because then you are too advanced, and may not benefit or may suffer harm from the medicine. We expect this limited indication to be highly confusing,” they groused.

SVB Leerink slashed its estimate of the extent to which antibody treatments would be used in hospitalized patients on ventilation from 55% to zero and non-ventilated patients from 75% to 30%.

For Regeneron, that means sales of its antibody treatment would peak next year at $1.3 billion, SVB Leerink predicted, lowering its previous peak sales estimate of $1.8 billion. Sales would fall every year after that, coming in at just $473 million in 2024, they predicted.


Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald noted that Lilly will distribute bamlanivimab under a U.S. government program, receiving $375 million for the first 300,000 doses. The company said it would manufacture 1 million doses by the end of the year, and if they all sell, that would total $875 million.

Still, Lilly itself said during its third-quarter earnings call that for the company to hit the high end of its 2020 revenue guidance range of $23.7 billion to $24.2 billion, it “would likely require the inclusion of moderate revenue from potential COVID-19 treatments,” Cantor Fitzgerald wrote in a note to investors. The initial shipment may cover that, but any upside to the guidance would depend on demand for the additional 700,000 doses.

Bernstein analysts estimated in October that the total market for anti-COVID antibodies would hit $3 billion worldwide next year. At the time, they estimated Regeneron and Lilly would split that market, but overall sales would fall quickly to $806 million in 2021.


Of course, the elephant in the room for any company working on drugs to treat COVID-19 is the expected onslaught of vaccines, starting with Pfizer’s. Its announcement of 90% efficacy in early results from the phase 3 trial of its mRNA vaccine raised hopes for an end to the pandemic and lifted stock markets around the world.

But it also raised concerns among analysts covering companies that are working on drugs to treat COVID-19. Analysts at Barclays said in a note that the world would still need treatments for the disease after vaccines hit the market, but that Pfizer’s positive data “should raise further questions around the mid-to-long-term durability of those revenue streams.”

For SVB Leerink analysts, the prospect of a quick emergency authorization for Pfizer’s vaccine prompted a prediction that the product would bring in sales of $258 million in the fourth quarter of this year and $4.6 billion next year. “We believe this strong data should boost confidence of the general public in COVID vaccines, which should drive up the early adoption rate,” they said.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/covid-antibody-drugs-from-lilly-and-regeneron-won-t-do-much-to-boost-top-lines-analysts

Medtronic launches smart insulin pen gained in Companion Medical deal

Medtronic aims to quickly reap what it’s sown with a number of tuck-in deals this year, by rolling out the smart insulin pen picked up in its strategic acquisition of Companion Medical this summer.

Designed for people with diabetes who take multiple injections per day, the FDA-cleared InPen will link with the medtech giant’s Guardian Connect continuous glucose monitoring system, to help track insulin doses alongside real-time blood sugar readings through a single smartphone app provided by Medtronic.  

The InPen itself lasts for about a year and currently works with short-acting insulins, though the company is working to include longer-acting insulins in the future.

Companion’s legacy app logs the amount of insulin on board and includes a bolus calculator for doses around meals. Medtronic said that app will continue to display information from other compatible glucose monitoring systems, but on a three-hour delay.


"Our successful integration of these devices in just two months following the close of our Companion Medical acquisition is a testament to the close collaboration of our employees and strong passion to serve our customers with better solutions to manage their diabetes," Sean Salmon, president of Medtronic’s diabetes business, said in a statement

“We're pleased to build on the success of InPen with added real-time glucose data which provides a complete picture for users as they look to give themselves the right dose of insulin at the right time," Salmon added.

Following the August announcement of the Companion deal, analysts at Jefferies painted the acquisition as a “bold move” that could add $200 million in incremental revenue over time, though Companion posted just about $11 million in 2019 sales. The financial terms of the buyout were not disclosed.

Medtronic has made seven tuck-in acquisitions so far in 2020 to fuel its growth, most recently with the purchase of Ai Biomed, makers of safety probes used in thyroid surgery. In a recent letter to shareholders, Medtronic CEO Geoff Martha said that cadence of dealmaking will continue.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/medtronic-launches-connected-smart-insulin-pen-gained-companion-medical-deal


Half of COVID-19 Patients Report Ongoing Fatigue: Study

A little more than half of people who recover from COVID-19 report fatigue, even weeks after they get better, according to a new study published in the journal PLOS One.

Regardless of the severity of their infection, about 52% said they still felt extremely tired 10 weeks after contracting COVID-19.

"A lengthy post-infection fatigue burden will impair quality of life and will have significant impact on individuals, employers and healthcare systems," the researchers from Trinity College Dublin wrote.

The researchers surveyed 128 patients who received COVID-19 care at St. James's Hospital in Dublin and rated their fatigue scores up to 10 weeks after infection. About 52% — or 67 participants — met the criteria for fatigue, both physically and psychologically. In particular, women and those who had previous diagnoses of depression or anxiety were more likely to report lingering fatigue.

Overall, the patients' fatigue levels were much higher than the typical scores observed in the general population. However, their scores were lower than the criteria used to indicate chronic fatigue syndrome.

About half of the patients had been hospitalized for COVID-19, and half had received drugs to treat the virus. The researchers didn't find a link between the persistent fatigue and hospitalization or the severity of the disease.

This lasting fatigue could become a major concern as people recover from COVID-19, the researchers wrote. At the time of the survey, about a third of the participants hadn't returned to work.

"This is of particular concern, given that it is recommended that post-viral infection return to work should take place after four weeks to prevent deconditioning," they wrote.

Source:

PLOS One, "Persistent fatigue following SARS-CoV-2 infection is common and independent of severity of initial infection."

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/940877


Major Breakthrough? Average 10% Weight Loss With Semaglutide

In a phase 3 trial where all participants received intensive behavior therapy, investigational 2.4-mg once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide (Novo Nordisk) resulted in a 10.3% greater average weight loss than placebo over a period of 68 weeks.

If approved, this medication could be a "potential major breakthrough" in obesity management, the investigators suggest. But other experts urge caution, as cost and uptake are important considerations.

"Potential Weight Loss That Patients Would Be Happy With"

Thomas A. Wadden, PhD, presented results from the study of 611 adults with overweight or obesity but no diabetes at the virtual ObesityWeek® Interactive 2020 meeting.

"Perhaps even more impressive was the finding that 75% of patients lost 10% or more of baseline body weight," said Wadden, of the Department of Psychiatry, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania.

Moreover, in this trial of semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist that is approved for treating type 2 diabetes at a weekly subcutaneous dose of 1 mg (Ozempic, Novo Nordisk), but is being investigated at the higher dose for weight loss — 55% of patients lost ≥ 15% of their initial weight, and 36% lost ≥ 20% of their initial weight.

"These large categorical weight losses — particularly of 15% and 20% of initial weight — are potentially a major breakthrough in the management of obesity," Wadden told Medscape Medical News in an email.

Weight losses of this size, he added, "should confer greater improvements in cardiometabolic risk factors (such as hypertension, sleep apnea, and type 2 diabetes) as compared with losses of 5% to 10% achieved with current behavioral or pharmacological approaches." And patients are generally not satisfied with losses of less than 10% of initial weight when participating in intensive behavior programs or taking weight loss medications, he said.

Now, "the larger categorical weight losses will mean that a greater number of patients with obesity will be able to achieve a weight loss with which they are...happy," Wadden told Medscape Medical News.

Louis J. Aronne, MD, Weill Professor of Metabolic Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York City, who is an investigator for another trial of semaglutide, said, "Even though it has the same mechanism of action [as liraglutide], the weight loss is two or more times greater [with semaglutide]. In my opinion, it's really going to be a major advance in the treatment of obesity."

In the discussion that followed the virtual presentation, one attendee asked about potential weight regain if a patient stopped taking the drug. Based on experience with another subcutaneous injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist, liraglutide (Saxenda, Novo Nordisk), already approved for obesity, it may be that taking medicine for chronic overweight may become like taking a statin for elevated cholesterol, said Wadden.

Novo Nordisk has now completed the four trials in the STEP (Semaglutide Treatment Effect in People With Obesity) global phase 3 clinical development program, and plans to file applications with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) later this year and with the European Medicines Agency in early 2021 for review of semaglutide 2.4 mg for weight management.

"Fundamental Issues Need to Be Figured Out"

Invited to comment, Scott Kahan, MD, said, "This is impressive data, confirming that semaglutide, particularly when used in concert with evidence-based counseling, is a highly effective agent for obesity management."

However, "the real question, though, is what comes next," stressed Kahan, director of the National Center for Weight and Wellness, Washington, DC.

"Will it be approved by the US FDA? I believe so," he told Medscape Medical News in an email. "Yet we already have several effective obesity medications approved over the past decade — all of which are rarely used and therefore make little impact for patients in the real world."

"Will there be insurance coverage, and therefore practical access for those who could most benefit?" he continued. "Will prescribers counsel their patients about obesity management, including the use of effective medications? Will patients utilize available options?"

"These and other fundamental issues must be figured out before we anoint any treatment option as a meaningful step forward, let alone a transformative development," according to Kahan.

Similarly, Irl B. Hirsch, MD, stressed that should this medication be approved for weight loss, cost would be a major factor in its uptake.

"I'm old enough to recall when we started using lovastatin in the late 1980s," Hirsch, professor of medicine, UW Medicine Diabetes Institute, Seattle, Washington, told Medscape Medical News in an email.

"We used it without the type of evidence of statin use we have today. A pill, but in those days the statins were expensive. But over time, the evidence for statins grew and over the next 15 years it was quite clear that for both primary prevention (for those with diabetes) and secondary intervention these drugs needed to be used by millions of people. These recommendations became easier once the drugs became generic."

"Will the same thing happen for GLP-1 agonists? The problem is we need both 'hard outcome data' (such as 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events) and more reasonable cost before we see this expanding to an entire population."

"In the future perhaps we could have a biosimilar GLP-1 agonist that would be more affordable than what we pay now, but even before that we need agreement from our reimbursement thought leaders that our society should reimburse these agents."

"My thinking now is the cost-benefit could be favorable, but this is all dependent on what happens to the cost of the drugs over time," he said.

Additive Effect of Intensive Behavior Therapy Plus Medication

Wadden explained that intensive behavioral therapy "provides 14 or more counseling sessions in 6 months to modify diet and physical activity, through the patients' use of behavioral strategies (such as keeping daily food and activity diaries)."

Such programs typically produce mean weight loss of 5%-8% of initial weight; less frequent (eg, monthly) programs typically produce weight loss of only 1%-3%.

Prior studies suggest that intensive behavioral therapy and medication have additive effects. To investigate this, Wadden and colleagues randomized 611 adults (81% women) who were a mean age of 46 years and had a mean body mass index of 38 kg/m2.

All participants received 30 intensive behavior therapy sessions provided by a registered dietitian (or other qualified provider), which typically lasted 20-30 minutes and were given weekly for 12 weeks, every other week for the next 12 weeks, and then monthly.  

The dietitian gave participants behavioral strategies to help them adhere to diet and physical activity goals.

During the first 8 weeks, participants were provided with a 1000-1200 kcal/day meal replacement diet that included liquid shakes, meal bars, and prepared entrees designed to facilitate a large initial weight loss.

They then transitioned to a diet of conventional foods (of their choosing), with a goal of 1200-1800 kcal/day based on body weight.  

The physical activity goal was 100 minutes/week of walking or other aerobic activity in the first month, building up to 200 minutes/week by month 6.

"More Effective Than Current FDA-Approved Weight-Loss Medications"

At week 68, mean body weight decreased from baseline by 16.0% in the semaglutide group vs 5.7% in the placebo group (P < .0001).

In this trial, where all participants received extensive intensive behavior therapy, more participants had weight loss ≥ 5%, ≥ 10%, ≥ 15%, and ≥ 20% of their initial weight with semaglutide vs placebo (87% vs 48%; 75% vs 27%; 56% vs 13%; 36% vs 4%, respectively; all P < .0001).

From baseline to week 68, the proportion of participants with prediabetes decreased from 48% to 7% in the semaglutide group and from 53% to 26% in the placebo group.

Patients who received semaglutide had greater improvements in lipids, too.

Although the weight loss was 10.3% (10.6 kg) greater with semaglutide, Wadden noted, "additional studies have shown this net benefit to be as great as 11%-12%, which would make semaglutide 2.4 mg more effective than current [US FDA-approved] weight-loss medications."

"Naltrexone-bupropion (Contrave) with lifestyle counseling, for example," he continued, "produces a loss that is 5-kg greater than lifestyle counseling plus placebo, liraglutide 3.0 mg (Saxenda) a loss 5.3-kg greater than placebo, and phentermine-topiramate (Qsymia) a loss that is 8.8-kg greater than placebo." 

Semaglutide was well-tolerated. Gastrointestinal adverse events, the most common type, occurred in 83% of patients in the semaglutide group and 63% of patients in the placebo group.

Nausea, as well as constipation and diarrhea, are common in medications that increase GLP-1 levels, Wadden noted. Side effects can be managed by slowly increasing the medication dose over 4 months.  

Wadden expects that, if approved, semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneous once-weekly will be recommended as an adjunct to a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity. Additional studies suggest that monthly counseling should be sufficient to obtain similar weight losses as those seen in the current trial, which had more intensive counseling.

As well as being approved as a weekly subcutaneous injectable treatment for type 2 diabetes, semaglutide is also approved as an once-daily oral agent for the same indication (Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk) in doses of 7 mg and 14 mg to improve glycemic control along with diet and exercise. It is the first GLP-1 agonist available in tablet form.

Wadden serves on scientific advisory boards for Novo Nordisk and WW (formerly Weight Watchers), and has received grant support, on behalf of the University of Pennsylvania, from Novo Nordisk. Aronne is an investigator in a long-term trial of semaglutide and has served on scientific advisory boards for Novo Nordisk in the past. He also has other industry relationships that are not related to semaglutide.

ObesityWeek® 2020. Presented November 5, 2020.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/940841

Bayer Invests in US Gene-Editing Company Metagenomi

Bayer AG said Thursday that it has invested in U.S.-based company Metagenomi, which focuses on gene-editing techniques in order to advance therapies in oncology and genetics diseases.

The German chemical and pharmaceutical conglomerate has co-led a $65 million series A financing for Metagenomi through its investment arm Leaps by Bayer together with Humboldt Fund, the companies said in a joint statement.

"Capital raised during this round will enable Metagenomi to accelerate the expansion of its gene editing systems for potential therapeutic use. In addition, Metagenomi will advance research and preclinical validation for its own pipeline," the companies said. 

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BAYER-AG-436063/news/Bayer-Invests-in-US-Gene-Editing-Company-Metagenomi-31767901/

Vaccine hopes not fully priced into S&P, 15% upside in equity - UBS

  • The prospects of a vaccine with efficacy of more than 90% with the White House and Senate split on party lines is giving UBS a lot of reasons that 2021 will match its optimistic scenario.

In its most optimistic view, UBS sees the S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY) -1.3% rallying to 4,100 in 2022, a 15% upside from current levels.

Among the reasons for equities upside after vaccine and election news strategist Keith Parker points to are:

  • Vaccine hopes were 77% priced into the S&P, but stocks aren’t pricing in a backdrop of real rates at -0.8% and GDP growth “well above” 3% through 2022.
  • Future quarters earnings estimates have not moved on Q3 beats and “broad upgrades” should come over the coming months.
  • An effective vaccine would point to big upside, as political gridlock without recessions have seen the S&P return 26% to 30%, although stimulus would be needed near term.
  • Rates volatility “has stayed low as rates have risen implying rates should settle down soon”, helping forward P/E.
  • Lower policy uncertainty under a Biden administration could be a 3-6% boost to P/Es.

What sectors will perform well:

  • There is a 7 percentage points of potential further outperformance for small-caps (NYSEARCA:IWM) -2.3% with a vaccine.
  • “We would not give up on Growth as rates likely settle down and instead would further (underweight) Defensives on the prospect of a faster recovery.”
  • UBS picks energy, financials, builders and durables over airlines, leisure, machinery and chemicals.

Debt levels “have surged for most of the hardest hit industries such as Airlines such that the upside for those levered stocks may be less than hoped, and further FCF weakness could further dilute equity holders," Parker says. “Thus, we would be mindful of chasing indiscriminately and would look for stocks that have not had a debt surge and thus better risk-adj equity upside”.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3635680-vaccine-hopes-not-fully-priced-s-and-p-15-upside-ubs

Emergent BioSolutions in focus on upcoming 60 Minutes episode

Gaithersburg, MD-based Emergent BioSolutions (EBS -2.6%) will be featured on a 60 Minutes segment this Sunday, November 15, on Operation Warp Speed. The company is producing COVID-19 vaccines for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +0.0%) and AstraZeneca (AZN -2.3%). Specifically, it is scaling up both products into bulk drug substance that will be used in the final "fill and finish" manufacturing phase.