Estimated transmissibility, severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

 Authors: Nicholas Davies*, Rosanna C Barnard1, Christopher I Jarvis1, Adam J Kucharski1, James D Munday1, Carl A.B. Pearson1, Timothy W Russell1, Damien C Tully1, Sam Abbott, Amy Gimma, William Waites, Kerry LM Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Mark Jit, Katherine E Atkins & W John Edmunds.

This study has not yet been peer reviewed.

PDF: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01, emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and appears to be rapidly spreading towards fixation. We fitted a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to observed COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital and ICU bed occupancy, and deaths; SARS-CoV-2 PCR prevalence and seroprevalence; and the relative frequency of VOC 202012/01 in the three most heavily affected NHS England regions (South East, East of England, and London). We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. We were unable to find clear evidence that VOC 202012/01 results in greater or lesser severity of disease than preexisting variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

Merck, A2 Bio in development pact for allogeneic cell therapy for cancer

 

• Privately-held A2 Biotherapeutics has entered into an agreement with Merck (MRK +1.1%), in which A2 will continue research and preclinical development of its undisclosed Tmod cell therapy candidate (its third candidate therapy), with the parties to co-fund A2's clinical development and allogeneic manufacturing activities through Phase 1.
• Merck will assist with preclinical development and has the option to exclusively develop, manufacture and commercialize the candidate following Phase 1.
• A2's Tmod engineered T cells uniquely combine a potent activating mechanism to kill tumor cells with a blocking mechanism that protects normal cells from harm by exploiting the loss of genetic material in tumors.

• Under the agreement A2 will receive an upfront payment, and will be eligible for opt-in and milestone payments, plus royalties on sales of any approved product.  A2 will also receive from Merck an equity investment and reimbursement of certain expenses. Merck has the option to designate a new Tmod program with increased economic terms.

• https://seekingalpha.com/news/3647078-merck-a2-bio-in-development-pact-for-allogeneic-cell-therapy-candidates-for-cancer

Intellia Therapeutics cut to neutral at Baird; price target unchanged

 

• Citing the recent share performance, Baird has downgraded Intellia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NTLA) to neutral from outperform. However, the analysts remain ‘long-term bullish’ on the stock keeping the price target unchanged at $60.
• Thesis centers around Intellia’s experimental CRISPR therapy, NTLA-2001, currently under development to treat ATTR (Transthyretin Amyloidosis).
• Citing the recently-initiated Phase 1 study for the indication, the analysts highlight the potential for NTLA-2001 in hereditary ATTR with polyneuropathy. Yet, they are less than optimistic for the experimental therapy in hATTR with cardiomyopathy and wild-type ATTR due to the lack of clinical trial results as proof. 
• https://seekingalpha.com/news/3647086-intellia-therapeutics-cut-to-neutral-baird-price-target-unchanged

Medtronic’s price target raised at JPM

 

• Reiterating its Overweight rating, J.P. Morgan has raised the price target for Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), citing the new CEO, operating model, and the robust product pipeline.
• The analysts led by Robbie Marcus think, ‘all the pieces are in place for Medtronic to deliver a strong 2021,’ lifting the price target for 2021 to $130 from $122 based on a calendar P/E multiple, in line with large-cap MedTech peers.
• Medtronic has witnessed its quarterly revenue contracting for three consecutive quarters, and no surprise, the shares have remained flat over the past 12-month period compared to a +14.8% gain in the S&P 500 Index.
• Last week Morgan Stanley predicted a MedTech recovery following the COVID-19 related disruption, upgrading Medtronic to overweight rating, while Wells Fargo projected sector growth to accelerate in 2H 2021.
• https://seekingalpha.com/news/3647112-medtronic-s-price-target-raised-jpm

Moderna says its vaccine gives immunity against new COVID-19 variant

 

• Issuing a statement, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) says it expects that the immunity offered by its COVID-19 vaccine would be protective against the new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus recently detected in the U.K. However, the company plans to run tests the confirm the activity of the vaccine against any strain.
• The vaccine expressing the full-length Spike protein of the SARS-COV-2 virus can generate the neutralizing antibody responses to multiple domains of the protein. The full-length Spike protein is 1,273 amino acids long. 
• With recent variants with multiple mutations causing changes to amino acid sequence could represent less than 1% difference from the spike protein encoded by Moderna’s vaccine, the statement added.
• The vaccine had been proven to be effective in tests against a number of previous variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that emerged since the first outbreak of the pandemic.
• Amid fears over the new coronavirus strain, thought to be highly transmissible than its predecessors, the shares of COVID-19 vaccine makers witnessed sharp losses yesterday. 
• https://seekingalpha.com/news/3647149-moderna-says-vaccine-gives-immunity-against-new-covidminus-19-variant

Merck in supply deal for up to 100K doses of MK-7110 for COVID-19

 

• Merck (NYSE:MRK) inks agreement with the U.S. Government to support the development, manufacture and initial distribution of an investigational biological therapeutic (CD24Fc, to be named MK-7110) upon FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).
• Under the agreement, Merck will receive up to ~$356M for manufacturing and supply of approx. 60,000-100,000 doses of MK-7110 through June 30, 2021. This approach is intended to expedite delivery of MK-7110.
• MRK is also investing to expand its manufacturing capacity to increase supply of MK-7110.
• Merck acquired MK-7110 through the acquisition of privately-held OncoImmune.
• In September 2020, OncoImmune reported findings from Phase 3 study that COVID-19 patients treated with a single dose of MK-7110 showed a 60% higher probability of improvement compared to placebo. The risk of death or respiratory failure was reduced by more than 50%.
• https://seekingalpha.com/news/3646907-merck-inks-supply-deal-for-up-to-100k-doses-of-mkminus-7110-for-covidminus-19

Bristol-Myers: Opdivo brain cancer study unlikely to meet overall survival endpoint

 

• Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) provides an update for CheckMate -548, a Phase 3 trial evaluating the addition of Opdivo to the current standard of care (temozolomide and radiation therapy) versus placebo plus the standard of care in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme with O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation following surgical resection of the tumor.
• The company says following a routine review of the study by an independent data monitoring committee, Bristol-Myers was informed that based on the number of events to date, the study will not meet its primary endpoint of overall survival in patients with no baseline corticosteroid use or in the overall randomized population.
• The committee also indicated that no safety concerns observed in patients treated with Opdivo that warranted stopping the study.
• Investigators will be unblinded to the treatment assignments and patients will be counseled on their treatment options, and those currently deriving benefit from Opdivo will be permitted to continue treatment if agreed to with their physician.
• The company says it will complete a full evaluation of the CheckMate -548 data and work with investigators to share the final results.
• Last month, Bristol-Myers won approval for Opdivo from the EU to treat esophageal cancer.
• https://seekingalpha.com/news/3646910-bristol-myers-says-opdivo-brain-cancer-study-unlikely-to-meet-overall-survival-endpoint