Stocks That Wall Street Hates but You May Like

 For good or bad, what Wall Street analysts think about a stock makes a big difference. One downgrade from an analyst can cause a stock to sink. On the other hand, an analyst's upgrade or price target increase usually provides a nice positive catalyst for a stock.

But -- you might need to sit down for this -- Wall Street analysts aren't always right. That's shocking, I know. And sometimes they can be flat-out wrong about a stock. With that in mind, here are two stocks that Wall Street hates but you'll probably like.

Fulgent Genetics: More than just COVID-19 testing

The Wall Street consensus price target for Fulgent Genetics (NASDAQ:FLGT) reflects a 41% discount to the current price for the healthcare stock. I think that analysts are being way too pessimistic about Fulgent's prospects.

As its name indicates, Fulgent Genetics focuses on genetic testing. Its stock quadrupled in value in 2020 thanks to surging demand for Fulgent's COVID-19 tests. Wall Street analysts apparently think that that demand will sharply decline this year. That might seem reasonable with the increasing availability of COVID-19 vaccines.

However, new coronavirus variants (especially the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa) appears to be more resistant to vaccines. Don't be surprised if COVID-19 testing volumes remain high for a longer period than analysts expect.

I also think that Wall Street is missing a more important long-term story for Fulgent. The company's opportunities go way beyond COVID-19 testing.

Fulgent estimates that its addressable market for genetic testing will top $10 billion by the end of 2022. Even with soaring sales last year, the company will probably report revenue of around $300 million. Fulgent's technology platform gives it the nimbleness and cost advantages that should enable it to capture a much greater chunk of the potential market over the next few years.

Can Fulgent Genetics double your money in 2021? I wouldn't go that far at this point, especially since the stock has basically doubled already year to date. However, my view is that it's more likely that Fulgent will continue to deliver solid returns this year than plunge more than 40% as many Wall Street analysts expect. 

Illumina: The 800-pound gorilla in genomics

Wall Street is also pretty pessimistic about Fulgent's gene-sequencing technology partner and 800-pound gorilla in the genomics market, Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN). The average analyst price target is 24% below Illumina's current share price.

Unlike Fulgent, Illumina didn't deliver jaw-dropping returns last year. Its stock rose less than 12% while the S&P 500 index jumped 16%. Illumina is off to a better start this year with a double-digit gain. However, I don't think the stock is poised to sink as analysts seem to anticipate it will. Actually, my view is that 2021 will be a pretty good year for Illumina.

The company already announced guidance projecting revenue growth of up to 20% in 2021. Sure, increased COVID-19 testing one tailwind fueling this growth. But Illumina also has other growth drivers, including a major ramp-up in population genomics initiatives this year and its recent launch of Illumina Connected Analytics, a cloud-based platform supporting bioinformatics.

Illumina's NovaSeq system should also continue to enjoy solid momentum. It's already the most successful sequencing system in the company's history. The installed base for Novaseq currently tops 1,100. Illumina still has over 320 customers using its older HiSeq system that haven't converted to NovaSeq yet. 

While Illumina's near-term prospects look good, it's the company's long-term potential that is especially exciting. We've only begun to see what gene sequencing can achieve in helping detect cancer at early stages and develop therapies for genetic diseases.

Illumina still expects to lower the cost of sequencing a human genome to $100 from around $600 today. If it achieves that goal (and I think it will), there could be an explosion in the use of genomic sequencing. And this 800-pound gorilla will probably grow much larger.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/01/2-stocks-that-wall-street-hates-but-youll-probably/

'Popular Robinhood Stock That Could Be Better Than Bitcoin in 2021'

It's been a rollercoaster ride for bitcoin already in 2021, and the year is still young.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin delivers solid returns over the next 11 months. On the other hand, I also think that Robinhood investors like several stocks that could generate even higher returns. Here's one popular stocks on the no-cost trading platform that could be better than bitcoin in 2021.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals

Perhaps the most critical milestone for the world this year will be the massive rollouts of COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccine developed by Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO) could be among those administered in 2021. 

Inovio turned in a tremendous performance last year, with its shares soaring 168%. That gain could be a drop in the bucket, though, if the biotech's INO-4800 COVID-19 vaccine proves safe and highly effective.

It will be later in the year before we know more about the real potential for INO-4800. Inovio is currently evaluating the experimental vaccine in a phase 2 clinical study. 

The biotech stock could have another major catalyst on the way, though. Inovio expects to report results from a late-stage study of VGX-3100 in treating precancerous cervical dysplasia in the first half of 2021. Positive results from this study could set the stage for a regulatory filing for VGX-3100.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/28/3-popular-robinhood-stocks-that-could-be-better-th/

COVID-19 test kit developer Lucira Health sets terms for $125 million IPO

 Lucira Health, which is developing single-use test kits for COVID-19 and other infectious diseases, announced terms for its IPO on Monday.

The Emeryville, CA-based company plans to raise $125 million by offering 7.8 million shares at a price range of $15 to $17. At the midpoint of the proposed range, Lucira Health would command a fully diluted market value of $644 million.

Lucira has developed a testing platform that produces centralized-laboratory-accurate molecular testing in a single-use and consumer-friendly test kit that is powered by two AA batteries and fits in the palm of a hand. The company's initial focus is within respiratory diseases, starting with COVID-19 and influenza A and B virus indications. Its LUCIRA COVID-19 All-In-One Test Kit is designed to provide a clinically relevant COVID-19 result within 30 minutes from sample collection. The company is pre-revenue.

Lucira Health was founded in 2013 and plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol LHDX. BofA Securities, William Blair and LifeSci Capital are the joint bookrunners on the deal.

Relevant Profile: LHDX

https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/75915/COVID-19-test-kit-developer-Lucira-Health-sets-terms-for-$125-million-IPO

BCRX: The most undervalued stock in the market

 First up, I'm acting as a surrogate for u/BIO9999 as he can't post here yet but is absolutely brilliant and deserves to be heard. He'll be around in the thread to answer questions

We are going to look at Biocryst’s recently approved drug Berotralstat, AKA Orladeyo. It is a once-a-day pill given to patients with a terrible lifelong disease called Hereditary Angioedema, that results in them having to frequently visit the Emergency Room for life-threatening angioedema attacks (check out Youtube for videos of HAE patients suffering from these attacks and using Berotralstat). It is estimated that this disease affects 1 in 50,000 people in the world, or roughly 140,000 people, so although considered a rare disease, it is still affecting a lot of folks.

The available treatments for this disease are all IV drugs that are painful and produce local reactions. Berotralstat is the first oral drug. It achieved excellent results in phase 3 trials, and the US FDA gave it fast track status in 2018 and Japan gave it Sakigake status (type of fast track). Then on December 3rd, the US granted approval for the drug. They did it very importantly with zero label statements--meaning that they had no concerns about side effects or dangers. On January 22nd, Japan granted approval. The EU also met last week to discuss approval and will announce its result this quarter.

So let's look at what the above means for this stock. First the drug is in HIGH demand. In the US there are at least 10,000 people with HAE. Despite the disease being frequently debilitating, patients are so uncomfortable about getting regular injections that only 7,500 are currently being treated with IV injections. The other 2,500 are going untreated despite the high risks. Now let's look at the 7,500 patients on a prophylactic treatment. Based on numerous surveys by doctors, the company, and researchers, most of these people would prefer an oral treatment. Take a look at this peer-reviewed survey article finding that 98% of IV prophylactic patients (the 7,500) would prefer an oral treatment and 96% of the non-prophylactic patients (the 2,500) would want an oral treatment.

No wonder then that one of the preeminent biotech analysts, Evercore's Liisa Bayko, wrote to her clients on December 4th that Berotralstat was likely to quickly take at least 30% of the HAE market based on Evercore surveys of patient and doctor demand.

Remember that this is just the US.... Japan did not even have any prophylactic treatment until Berotralstat was approved there a few days ago. They have 500 people registered with HAE and estimated 2,000 ready to be registered. The UK is so desperate to add the drug for its patients, it did not even wait until the formal approval process to go through and gave early access to the drug on November 9th.

The EU is not far behind, with its estimated 20,000 patients, with approval coming in the next few weeks. Then there is the rest of the world. The HAE patient population in Latin America is estimated by HAE International, the most important advocacy organization for HAE patients worldwide and one of Berotralstat’s biggest supporters, to be over 15,000 patients, the vast majority of whom are poorly diagnosed and not prophylactically treated. Argentina and Brazil have the highest actual diagnostic rates. HAEI through its Latin American sister organizations is strongly advocating for Berotralstat in Latin America.

Next, it should be noted that Biocryst built a world-class sales team for this drug in the US and EU and signed a partnership with Torii in Japan to take charge of the large sales and marketing promotion there. It has hired dozens of professionals, most from its HAE competitors. Its vice-president and US general manager Allen Hodge was even responsible for the successful efforts of the HAE drug launches of Cinryze and Firazyr, two pioneering injectable treatments for HAE. You could not get a more promising leader for this task.

It should also be pointed out that this drug, an oral kallikrein inhibitor, is potentially of huge value for a host of diseases, including COVID-19 (that is now recognized to severely affect the kallikrein-kinin system, and kallikrein inhibitors have begun to be tested against COVID19--see this (IV) kallikrein inhibitor trial that was just announced in Brazil for instance: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33472675/), diabetic macular edema (which Biocryst just obtained a patent on a technique to administer kallikrein inhibitors for), many autoimmune diseases, and even some types of cancer.

Last but not least, how should this stock be valued based on this one drug? First, this drug is one of the 10 most expensive drugs (based on its annual cost of prescription) in the world, but still less than the price of its IV competitors, at $488,000 per patient per year. This drug is being approved by insurance companies left, right, and center as their preferred treatment, all you have to do is follow R8 or nickpd on Stocktwits to see how many insurance companies have been making it easy for patients to sign up for the drug. Optime care even lets patients get direct-to-patient prescriptions now.

So what does all this mean for sales? And why is the stock not valued based on just this drug alone (I will get to the others in future posts)? I estimate conservatively that by December 2021, there will be over 6,000 patients on Berotralstat in the US, EU and Japan, and I can share in a future post the graphs and calculations I made to get to those numbers. 6,000 patients annualized is up to $2.9 billion in annual sales. Most of this is going to be profit. At a conservative price to sales ratio of 7, that should produce a price of $121, not $8.52! If you want to play around with the math yourself, look here.

And that is just the beginning. Because Factor D and Galidesivir are going to be much bigger than Berotralstat for reasons I will explain in future posts. Remember that its Factor D drug, which is showing superiority to all other anti-complement drugs in Phase I trials and was fast-tracked and given orphan status by the FDA and now is in Phase 2 though not officially announced by the company eyt, and can be used in at least 20 diseases including common ones like Rheumatoid Arthritis, is currently not even factoring into BCRX's valuation. Consider that Alexion with its significantly inferior anti-complement drug was just sold to Astra-Zeneca for $39 billion because of the recognized potential of anti-complement drugs for a host of diseases. BCRX even has has other drugs like Peramivir, already approved for Influenza and able to be used for the next bird flu pandemic, and its FOP drug--a story for another day.

So why is this company, with zero risk of dilution due to an amazing royalty deal it signed in December and three super-drugs each worth tens of billions of dollars, and a host of other exciting developments to look forward to, worth only $1.5 billion right now? It can only be because the company's stock has been relentlessly shorted in 2020 and 2021 to allow for significant accumulation by institutions. That is why the stock only went up 168%, yes "ONLY" 168%...

The time for BCRX investors is now. My next post will be about Factor D, brace for that one. Factor D is 10 times bigger than Berotralstat! Good luck to all!

positions: 1 GME share, 1700 BCRX shares. buy either and profit. not financial advice though.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l8xiqh/bcrx_the_most_undervalued_stock_in_the_market/

Soliton: FDA OKs Rapid Acoustic Pulse Tech for Use in Cellulite

 Soliton, Inc., (Nasdaq: SOLY) ("Soliton" or the "Company"), a medical device company with a novel and proprietary aesthetic platform technology, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") has cleared its Rapid Acoustic Pulse ("RAP") technology for the short-term improvement in the appearance of cellulite. This innovative technology harnesses the power of sound for the treatment of cellulite. The unique, rapid-pulsed technology safely and comfortably breaks apart the fibrous septa bands beneath the skin that cause cellulite to deliver efficacious results in just one, 40–60-minute treatment.

"We're thrilled to receive this latest clearance for our RAP technology," said Brad Hauser, President & CEO of Soliton. "Our technology will now provide physicians a new, innovative and non-invasive approach for patients seeking a non-surgical option to improve the appearance of cellulite. This latest clearance also marks the next step in the planned commercialization of our RAP technology, and we look forward to introducing this new approach to treating cellulite to physicians in the months to come." 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/soliton-announces-fda-clearance-of-rapid-acoustic-pulse-technology-for-use-in-cellulite-301218525.html

Zosano Presents Early-Onset of Action Data for Qtrypta™ in Migraine

 

• Review of data from the ZOTRIP trial suggest that Qtrypta showed therapeutic gain at 30 minutes consistent with recently published criteria for evaluating early onset of action
  
  
• All Qtrypta patients who were pain free at 30 minutes were still pain free at 2 hours
  
  
• Observation of pain freedom at 30 minutes was more accurate than the observation of relief at 30 minutes in predicting pain freedom at 2 hours

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/01/2167325/0/en/Zosano-Pharma-Presents-Early-Onset-of-Action-Data-for-Qtrypta-in-Acute-Treatment-of-Migraines.html

Ampio: Early Positive Data in Phase 1 Ampion in COVID-19 Respiratory Distress

 - Subjects who received Ampion treatment required less oxygen than standard of care alone.

- Subjects who received Ampion treatment were stable or had improvement on the Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement (Ordinal Scale) compared to the standard of care patients.

- Subjects who received Ampion treatment were stable or had improvement on the National Early Warning Score 2 scoring system (NEWS2) compared to the of standard of care patients.

- Ampion improved all-cause mortality in COVID-19 patients with respiratory distress compared to standard of care.

- There have been no drug-related serious adverse events.

- Ampio has inventory on hand. In event the safety and efficacy study is successful, and the product receives regulatory approval, Ampio is in a position to begin immediate manufacturing.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ampio-announces-early-positive-data-in-phase-1-trial-of-inhaled-ampion-in-covid-19-respiratory-distress-301219046.html