Search This Blog

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Fauci: 'Americans may still need masks to fight COVID in 2022'

 Americans may still need to wear masks in 2022 even as the country relaxes other restrictions to combat COVID-19, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said on Sunday.

While daily infection rates are coming down dramatically, thousands of Americans still die every day from the virus, and less than 15% of the U.S. population has been vaccinated against it. 

President Joe Biden is trying to accelerate the campaign to vaccinate most American adults as local governments clamor for more doses to prevent the highly contagious illness that has claimed nearly 500,000 lives in the United States.

Fauci, Biden’s top medical adviser, told CNN that the approaching deaths tally was “a terribly historic milestone in the history of this country.”

Asked if Americans should expect to still be wearing masks into next year, Fauci said: “I think it is possible that that’s the case,” adding that it depended on the level of the virus in communities and potential virus variants.

“Obviously, I think we are going to have a significant degree of normality beyond the terrible burden that all of us have been through over the last year,” Fauci said.

In an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press”, Fauci said it was too soon to pinpoint when the United States might reach herd immunity.

“We want to get that baseline really, really, really low before we start thinking that we’re out of the woods.”

He told “Fox News Sunday” that whether people in the United States will later need a booster shot depends on the path the South African variant takes.

While the currently available vaccines appear protective against the UK variant that has appeared across the country, they are less protective against the South African one, which so far is not dominant, he said.

“If in fact this becomes more dominant, we may have to get a version of the vaccine that is directed specifically against the South African isolate,” Fauci told Fox, saying studies were already underway.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/americans-may-still-need-masks-to-fight-covid-in-2022-fauci-says-idUSKBN2AL0CZ

UK speeds up vaccinations: All adults get 1st jab by July 31

 The British government declared Sunday that every adult in the country should get a first coronavirus vaccine shot by July 31, at least a month earlier than its previous target, as it prepared to set out a “cautious” plan to ease the U.K.’s lockdown.

The new target also aims for everyone 50 and over and those with an underlying health condition to get their first of two vaccine shots by April 15, rather than the previous date of May 1.

The makers of the two vaccines that Britain is using, Pfizer and AstraZeneca, have both experienced supply problems in Europe. But U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said Sunday that “we now think that we have the supplies” to speed up the vaccination campaign.

The early success of Britain’s vaccination effort is welcome good news for a country that has had more than 120,000 coronavirus deaths, the highest toll in Europe. More than 17.2 million people, a third of the country’s adults, have had at lease one vaccine shot since inoculations began on Dec. 8.

Britain is delaying giving second vaccine doses until 12 weeks after the first, rather than three to four weeks, in order to give more people partial protection quickly. The approach has been criticized in some countries — and by Pfizer, which says it does not have any data to support the interval — but it is backed by the U.K. government’s scientific advisers.

News of the new vaccine targets came as Prime Minister Boris Johnson met Sunday with senior ministers to finalize a “road map” out of the national lockdown that he plans to announce on Monday.

Faced with a dominant virus variant that scientists say is both more transmissible and more deadly than the original virus, Britain has spent much of the winter under a tight lockdown. Bars, restaurants, gyms, schools, hair salons and all nonessential shops have been closed; grocery stories, pharmacies and takeout food venues are still open.

The government has stressed that economic and social reopenings will be slow and cautious, with nonessential shopping or outdoor socializing unlikely before April. Many children will go back to school beginning on March 8 and nursing home residents will be able to have one visitor from the same date.

Johnson’s Conservative government has been accused of reopening the country too quickly after the first lockdown in the spring. The number of new confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all declining in February but remain high, and Johnson says his reopening road map will follow “data, not dates.”

But he is under pressure from some Conservative lawmakers, who argue that restrictions should be lifted quickly to revive an economy that has been hammered by three lockdowns in the last year.

John Edmunds, a member of the government’s scientific advisory group, said British hospitals are still treating about 20,000 coronavirus patients, half the January peak but almost as much as the height of the first surge last spring.

“If we eased off very rapidly now, we would get another surge in hospitalizations” and deaths, he told the BBC.

Edmunds said there is added uncertainty because of new virus variants, including one identified in South Africa that may be more resistant to current vaccines.

Hancock told Sky News that the government would take a “cautious but irreversible approach” to reopening the economy.

Despite the success of Europe’s fastest vaccination campaign, the U.K. government has been accused of failing to protect disabled people, who are among the most at-risk from coronavirus.

The Office for National Statistics has found that 60% of people who died with coronavirus in England in 2020 had a physical or mental disability. But many disabled people, apart from those with “severe or profound” learning disabilities, have not been put in a priority group for vaccination.

Jo Whiley, a well-known BBC radio DJ, on Sunday highlighted the plight of her 53-year-old sister Frances, who has a learning disability. Whiley said her sister contracted the coronavirus in an outbreak at her care home, whose residents had not been vaccinated.

Whiley said her sister had finally been offered a shot of vaccine — but it came too late.

“She was actually called in for her vaccine last night. My mum got a message to say that she could get vaccinated, but it’s too late, she’s fighting for her life” in the hospital, Whiley told the BBC. “It couldn’t be crueller.”

https://apnews.com/article/europe-europe-coronavirus-pandemic-bd6d355e8c5f3c1b2d007c1ceb5a7453

UK to reopen in stages after driving down South African variant

 Britain has started to drive down cases of the more infectious South African variant of coronavirus and will only emerge from lockdown in stages to make sure that does not change, the country’s health secretary said on Sunday.

A day before Prime Minister Boris Johnson sets out his plan to ease restrictions in England, Hancock said there was also early data showing that the faster-than-expected vaccine rollout was reducing transmissions and easing pressure on hospitals.

Britain has the world’s fifth-worst official COVID-19 death toll, with 120,365 fatalities, but an early drive to secure mass vaccine supplies means one in three adults has now had a first shot and daily death rates have started to fall.

Hancock said in total the United Kingdom had recorded around 300 cases of the more infectious South African variant of the disease that causes COVID-19.

“But most of those are now historic cases and from over a month ago,” he told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show. “The latest data shows that there’s around a dozen new ones, so a much, much smaller number.”

England has also introduced hotel quarantines to prevent variants from travelling from abroad.

So far, Britain has given a first dose of a vaccine to 17.2 million people, over a quarter of its 67 million population and behind only Israel and the United Arab Emirates in vaccines per head of population.

The government said on Sunday that all adults in Britain would be offered a first shot by the end of July, with a target to give a first dose to all over-50s by April 15.

But despite the improving picture, Hancock and leading epidemiologist John Edmunds said the restrictions must be eased gently and in stages, to see what impact the increased movement of people has on the virus.

Hancock suggested each easing could require a couple of weeks to detect the impact, before another part of the economy can reopen. Schools are expected to return first in early March.

Edmunds said it was difficult to say how widespread the South African variant was but that, like the rest of the pandemic, it was being held in place by the lockdown.

“The risk comes when we release the lockdown,” he said, adding that allowing the virus to circulate in younger healthier people could lead to further mutations that undermine the vaccine programme.

Johnson will set out his thinking on the easing of lockdown on Monday. Despite pressure from a section of lawmakers in his party who have been shocked by the 10% contraction of the economy in 2020, the prime minister is expected to be wary.

“There should be no doubt - the route out of lockdown will be cautious and phased, as we all continue to protect ourselves and those around us,” Johnson said in a statement.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain/britain-to-offer-all-adults-a-covid-19-vaccine-by-end-of-july-idUSKBN2AK0RE

Saturday, February 20, 2021

Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom

 Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 21-12

48 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2021 Last revised: 19 Feb 2021

Philippe van der Beck

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute

Coralie Jaunin

University of Lausanne - School of Economics and Business Administration (HEC-Lausanne); Swiss Finance Institute

Date Written: January 30, 2021

Abstract

Retail trading activity has soared during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper quantifies the impact of the retail investment boom on the US stock market within a structural model. Using account holdings data from the online trading platform “Robinhood Markets Inc.” and 13F filings, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand allows Robinhood investors to have a substantial effect on stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite their negligible market share of 0.2%, we find that Robinhood traders account for over 7% of the cross-sectional variation in stock returns during the second quarter of 2020. We furthermore show that without the surge in retail trading activity the aggregate market capitalization of the smallest quintile of US stocks would have been over 30% lower. Lastly, Robinhood traders are able to affect the price of some large individual companies that are being held primarily by passive institutional investors.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3776421

US is poised to beat China’s V-shaped recovery: JPMorgan

 The US recovery is accelerating, putting it on course to outperform China’s V-shaped rebound, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists.

Indications of resilience in global industry, a surge in American retail spending, along with fiscal stimulus around the world, especially from the Biden administration, point to higher growth in the U.S., according to projections from JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman.

"We now expect the U.S. to outpace China, moving on a path that raises GDP well above its pre-crisis trajectory," the economists wrote in a note. “We expect a regional gap between the U.S. and China and the performance of the rest of EM to remain large for some time to come."

The alignment of U.S. fiscal stimulus and rebound from Covid-19 in Europe will help bring a 7.6% surge in world GDP around mid-year, they said. While the U.S. picture looks particularly promising, recent high-frequency data in China indicates less slowing there than had been feared, they added.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/u-s-is-poised-to-beat-china-s-v-shaped-recovery-jpmorgan-says

Assessing Brain Capillaries in Coronavirus Disease 2019

David W. Nauen, MD, PhD1Jody E. Hooper, MD1C. Matthew Stewart, MD, PhD2et al

doi:10.1001/jamaneurol.2021.0225

Evidence suggests brain involvement in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Manifestations in acutely ill individuals often include confusion and alteration of consciousness. After this phase, many patients experience continued neurologic symptoms such as dysexecutive syndrome1 or “brain fog.”2 However, in autopsies from patients with COVID-19 who had neurologic abnormalities (reviewed in the study by Mukerji and Solomon3), investigations have largely not identified the chronic inflammation or marked neural changes typically associated with viral infection, and viral genetic material has been minimal or absent. It has been difficult to reconcile the experience of patients and clinicians that COVID-19 is altering cognition with tissue studies that show no evidence of encephalitis involving higher brain centers. We hypothesized that histopathology might provide insight. We report here a finding that may contribute in some cases, identified by analysis of brain tissue from patients who died of COVID-19.

Methods

The institutional review boards of Johns Hopkins University and Mass General Brigham approved this study, and the next of kin of each patient consented for use of tissues for research. We evaluated brain tissue from autopsies of patients with nucleic acid–proven severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and confirmed pulmonary pathology. We assessed the brains from the first 5 such cases at Johns Hopkins University; for 2 of these, only fragments of brain were available. Cases from Mass General Brigham were randomly selected from autopsies of individuals with COVID-19 performed between April 14 and May 15, 2020, and free of infarcts. Detailed information on these 15 patients as well as the 2 control patients without COVID-19 is provided in the eTable in the Supplement. COVID-19–negative cases were chosen because of comparable patient age and the presence of hypoxic-ischemic changes in brain. At autopsy, the cranium was opened with hand tools or a saw with a vacuum shroud to prevent aerosolization. Brains were fixed in neutral buffered formalin, 10%, for 2 weeks, then grossly examined and sectioned for microscopic assessment.

Results

In 5 cases (Table) in cortical capillaries, we identified large cell nuclei morphologically consistent with megakaryocytes (Figure, A). To further characterize these cells, we performed immunohistochemistry for CD61 and CD42b, markers of platelets and megakaryocytes. CD61 labels these cells (Figure, B), as does CD42b (Figure, C), confirming their megakaryocyte identity. The cells were distinct from platelet clusters, which were found in postmortem intravascular precipitates (Figure, D). Evaluation of the cortex of 2 patients who tested negative for COVID-19 who had hypoxic brain changes demonstrated no megakaryocytes on CD61.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2776455?fbclid=IwAR0SCIWVaFqhC23kxDfd-luqqKwGbbtrujH1x70qWkmDeefL_9Tnt7c42y0 

Antiviral Agents against SARS-CoV-2 in Older Adults: Ineffective or Time and Age Dependent?

  

 1,2,*,

 1,2,

 3,

 4,

 1,

 2,5,

 6,

 7,8,‡ and

 DOI:  https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10040686

PDF: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/4/686/pdf

Abstract:

Background: Our aim was to investigate the impact of therapeutics with antiviral activity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on mortality of older adults affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), taking into consideration the time interval from symptoms onset to drugs administration. Methods: Data from 143 COVID-19 patients over 65 years of age admitted to the Humanitas Clinical and Research Center Emergency Department (Milan, Italy) and treated with Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) or Darunavir/cobicistat (DVR/c) associated to Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were retrospectively analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed by using a logistic regression model and survival analysis to assess the role of different predictors of in-hospital mortality, including an early (<6 days from symptoms onset) vs. late treatment onset, signs and symptoms at COVID-19 presentation, type of antiviral treatment (LPV/r or DVR/c) and patients’ age (65–80 vs. >80 years old). Results: Multivariate analysis showed that an older age (OR: 2.54) and dyspnea as presenting symptom (OR: 2.01) were associated with higher mortality rate, whereas cough as presenting symptom (OR: 0.53) and a timely drug administration (OR: 0.44) were associated with lower mortality. Survival analysis demonstrated that the timing of drug administration had an impact on mortality in 65–80 years-old patients (p = 0.02), whereas no difference was seen in those >80 years-old. This impact was more evident in patients with dyspnea as primary symptom of COVID-19, in whom mortality decreased from 57.1% to 38.3% due to timely drug administration (OR: 0.5; p = 0.04). Conclusions: There was a significant association between the use of a combined antiviral regimen and HCQ and lower mortality, when timely-administered, in COVID-19 patients aged 65–80 years. Our findings support timely treatment onset as a key component in the treatment of COVID-19.

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/4/686/htm