Video appears to show migrants living in detached tractor trailer in NYC

 A migrant family was living in a tractor trailer parked on an East New York, Brooklyn block.

Video posted online shows a small child standing in the back of the trailer on Sheffield Avenue. 

A narrator who opens the truck’s blue back door says the vehicle is owned by his unidentified uncle.

“Bro, you definitely can’t make this up,” the man who appeared to be shooting the video says.

“How many times [did] we call child protective services or NYPD?” he asks. “They don’t show up. We can’t physically go into that trailer with children in it. We cannot physically lock the trailer because children are in there. We cannot drive away with the trailer because children are in there.”

The back of the trailer has Tennessee plates and a curtain covering whatever is inside.

The child appears to be bouncing up and down when two adults appear next to them, as the videographer shoots their feet rather than faces.

A worker at a nearby business told The Post customers complained about the family’s set-up, stating they were running a generator inside.

Video posted online shows a child standing in the back of the trailer in East New York.TikTok @dannysautorepairs

An employee at a business near where the trailer was parked told The Post customers complained about the family’s set-up.TikTok @dannysautorepairs

When The Post visited the site this week, the trailer had been moved.

The NYPD had no information about the tractor trailer or the migrant family.

https://nypost.com/2024/01/13/metro/video-appears-to-show-migrants-living-in-tractor-trailer-in-nyc/

Ban on guns in post offices is unconstitutional, US judge rules

 A federal judge in Florida on Friday ruled that a U.S. law that bars people from possessing firearms in post offices is unconstitutional, citing a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling from 2022 that expanded gun rights.

U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, an appointee of Republican former President Donald Trump in Tampa, reached that conclusion in dismissing part of an indictment charging a postal worker with illegally possessing a gun in a federal facility.

Mizelle said that charge violated Emmanuel Ayala's right to keep and bear arms under the U.S. Constitution's Second Amendment, saying "a blanket restriction on firearms possession in post offices is incongruent with the American tradition of firearms regulation."

She declined to dismiss a separate charge for forcibly resisting arrest. Ayala's lawyer and a U.S. Justice Department spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment.

The decision marked the latest court decision declaring a gun restriction unconstitutional following the conservative-majority Supreme Court's June 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen.

That ruling recognized for the first time that the Second Amendment protects an individual's right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense. It also established a new test for assessing firearms laws, saying restrictions must be "consistent with this nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation."

Ayala, a U.S. Postal Service truck driver in Tampa, had a concealed weapons permit and kept a Smith & Wesson 9mm handgun in a fanny pack for self-defense, his lawyers said.

He was indicted after prosecutors said he brought the gun onto Postal Service property in 2012 and fled federal agents who tried to detain him.

He was charged under a statute that broadly prohibits possessing a firearm in a federal facility, including a post office.

Mizelle said that while post offices have existed since the nation's founding, federal law did not bar guns in government buildings until 1964 and post offices until 1972. No historical practice dating back to the 1700s justified the ban, she said.

Mizelle said allowing the federal government to restrict visitors from bringing guns into government facilities as a condition of admittance would allow it to "abridge the right to bear arms by regulating it into practical non-existence." 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ban-guns-post-offices-unconstitutional-143632345.html

Taiwan's voters rebuff China and give ruling party third presidential term

 Taiwanese voters swept the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te into power on Saturday, strongly rejecting Chinese pressure to spurn him, as China said it would not give up on achieving "reunification".

Lai's party, which champions Taiwan's separate identity and rejects China's territorial claims, was seeking a third successive four year term, unprecedented under Taiwan's current electoral system.

However, in a measure of public frustration at domestic issues like the high cost of housing and stagnating wages after eight years in power, the DPP lost its majority in parliament, making Lai's job harder in passing legislation.

Lai also only won 40% of the vote in Taiwan's first-past-the-post system, unlike current President Tsai Ing-wen who was re-elected by a landslide four years ago with more than 50% of the vote.

Still, Lai lauded his victory.

"We've written a new page for Taiwan's history of democracy," Lai, long the frontrunner in the polls, told reporters after both his opponents conceded defeat.

Lai said he would maintain the status quo in relations across the Taiwan Strait, but that he was "determined to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China".

At the same time, he emphasised the need for cooperation and dialogue with Beijing on an equal basis to "replace confrontation", though he didn't give specifics.

In the run-up to the election, China denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist, and called on the people of Taiwan to make the right choice while noting the "extreme harm of the DPP's 'Taiwan independence' line". They have also repeatedly rebuffed Lai's calls for talks.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office struck a gentler tone in its response to Lai's election and did not mention him by name, saying that the results reveal that the DPP "cannot represent the mainstream public opinion" on Taiwan.

"Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realising national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock," it said.

However, it added China will work with "relevant political parties, groups and people" from Taiwan to boost exchanges and cooperation, and "advance the peaceful development of cross-strait relations as well as the cause of national reunification".

Taiwan's election took place at a time of growing geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington.

The arms race across the Taiwan Strait and Chinese military pressure on the island Beijing claims as its "sacred" territory is unlikely to end.

Since the last election in 2020, China has engaged in an unprecedented level of military activity in the Taiwan Strait, including holding two rounds of major war games near the island.

Lai, however, said "only peace will benefit both sides".

There were jubilant scenes among a sea of cheering supporters outside Lai's campaign headquarters.

"The DPP is the only party that can truly protect Taiwan," said tattoo artist Cony Lu, 28, who broke down in tears of happiness. "So many people are willing to stand together to preserve Taiwan's sovereignty."

DOMESTIC CHALLENGES

Lai admitted that with losing its parliamentary majority, the DPP had "many areas that need improvement".

However, he offered an olive branch to his opponents in saying he would include talent from their parties.

Lai said he would cooperate with his electoral rivals, Hou Yu-ih of Taiwan's largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT) and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), in resolving the problems Taiwan faces.

Taiwan's media reported the DPP won 51 seats to the KMT's 52, while the TPP got eight.

Ko appeared open to working with Lai.

"The TPP will play the role of a critical minority, without fixing who we collaborate with," Ko told reporters after conceding. "We'll look at the issues. Whoever speaks reasonably, we will support."

During the polls, hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese youths flocked to rallies held by Ko, who has emerged as a new force in Taiwan's political landscape with roughly a quarter of the vote despite coming last.

The KMT's Hou, who Lai had portrayed as being pro-Beijing despite Hou's strong protestations, bowed to a thin crowd of supporters as he accepted defeat.

The turnout was around 72% of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in the island of 23 million.

Tsai was constitutionally barred from standing again after two terms in office.

https://news.yahoo.com/polls-open-taiwans-critical-elections-000606247.html

British Troops In Ukraine Would Be 'Declaration Of War' Risking Nuclear Response: Medvedev

 Reacting to the 'unprecedented' military aid package just reached between Kiev and the United Kingdom, and with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the Ukrainian capital, the Kremlin has issued an urgent warning saying that any deployment of British troops to Ukraine as a "declaration of war." 

The alarming and blistering words came from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev upon Sunak's arrival in Kiev for the unveiling of the $3+ billion defense aid package. The new security agreement has outraged Moscow.

While there's been nothing in the official security deal which indicates UK troop deployment inside the war-ravaged country, apparently things like deepened intelligence-sharing has been enough to raise Kremlin suspicions of Western 'boots in the ground' escalation. 

The deal "formalizes a range of support the UK has been and will continue to provide for Ukraine’s security, including intelligence sharing, cyber security, medical and military training, and defense industrial cooperation," Downing Street had announced. 

Medvedev posted his response to social media. Importantly, he currently serves as deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, and he said: 

"What does this mean? It means only one thing – they risk running into the action of paragraph 19 of the fundamentals of Russia's state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence," Medvedev wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

"This should be remembered," Medvedev said.

According to more of the context from Reuters, he said that "some Ukrainian military commanders were considering hitting missile launch sites inside Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles."

The follows the Russian Defense Ministry having previously claimed UK troops already have a presence on the ground in Ukraine, certainly at least in an 'advisory' role.

While ultimately only President Putin is the final decision-maker on deployment of Russian nukes, Medvedev's threat was ominous and gained the West's attention at a moment of multiple conflict flashpoints across the globe chiefly because of the following: 

Paragraph nineteen of Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine sets out the conditions under which a Russian president would consider using a nuclear weapon: broadly as a response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or to the use of conventional weapons against Russia "when the very existence of the state is put under threat."

Medvedev made specific mention of point "g" of paragraph nineteen which deals with the nuclear response to a conventional weapons attack.

Throughout the nearly two-year long war, former president Medvedev has been an outspoken hawk, engaging in nuclear saber-rattling on repeat occasions, especially when there's an escalation perceived from Ukraine or its Western backers. Russia had previously positioned tactical nukes inside Belarus, which the West has seen as a significant escalation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-troops-ukraine-would-be-declaration-war-risking-nuclear-response-medvedev

Huawei Will Be The Next To Challenge Tesla In Autonomous Driving

 The bad news keep stacking up for Tesla. This week it was announced the company was shuttering production at its Berlin plant and that Hertz, who once made headlines for massive EV purchases for its fleet, was selling much of its used EV fleet to re-adopt traditional ICE vehicles.

To cap off the week, Caixin also wrote about how Huawei is now aiming to pull ahead of Tesla in the race for autonomous vehicles. 

As the report notes, the pursuit of self-driving car technology is intensifying, with numerous players vying for a share in a potentially huge market. Huawei has joined the fray, announcing a venture focused on intelligent car systems and components, including a high-end electric SUV, aspiring to lead in intelligent driving.

Leading the charge is Tesla Inc., among other global carmakers, startups, and tech giants, all competing in the world's largest auto market. Wu Gansha, co-founder and CEO of Uisee Technology Ltd., a driverless solutions startup, likened intelligent driving to the "pearl in the crown," with a potential revenue of a trillion yuan, at a recent forum.

Autonomous vehicles have been in development since March 2004, Caixin notes, starting with DARPA's $1 million challenge where 15 robotic vehicles attempted to navigate 142 miles of difficult California terrain, but none succeeded. Nearly two decades later, the vision of driverless cars remains somewhat futuristic, yet the commercial potential is too significant to overlook.

According to the report, by 2030, China could lead the global market for autonomous vehicles, with sales projected at $230 billion. Huawei's entry intensifies competition, as success in the sector hinges on data, computing power, and significant resources.

While developers struggle to balance cost, performance, and safety, creating unique products is challenging. The industry is expected to consolidate, akin to the dominance of iOS and Android in mobile operating systems.

As the race escalates, companies face a choice: develop autonomous technology independently or collaborate. Initially, many, like SAIC Motor Corp., opted for in-house development. However, the high costs and technical demands have led others, such as Volkswagen AG, to reconsider.

Huawei's dual expertise in software and hardware, including smart driving chips and sensors, positions it well for partnerships, offering a viable R&D platform for carmakers lacking resources. This trend toward collaboration reflects the industry's shifting dynamics and the growing importance of alliances in achieving autonomous driving advancements.

So while Tesla is looking out for BYD in one rear-view mirror, they'll have to be checking the other for Huawei..

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huawei-will-be-next-challenge-tesla-autonomous-driving

Airbus Jet Orders Hit Record As Boeing Plagued With Reputation Crisis Over Max Woes

 While Boeing deals with endless 737 Max jet problems, one which a Reuters report said in 2020 was an aircraft "designed by clowns who in turn are supervised by monkeys"... 

And this week, Elon Musk said: "Do you want to fly in an airplane where they prioritized DEI hiring over your safety? That is actually happening." 

Competitor Airbus, now the world's largest plane maker, booked 2,094 net jet orders last year (a new record high) and doubled the number of net orders in 2022. 

Airbus overtook Boeing in jet orders following the two crashes of Max jets, the first in October 2018 and the second in March 2019, which combined, killed 346 people. We noted shortly after the Max crashes, Boeing faced a reputation crisis as airlines ditched Max orders for A320 Neo.  

Shares of Airbus in Paris are up 2.5% on Friday, propelling the stock to new record highs. Meanwhile, shares of Boeing have been floundering for several years after countless Max jet problems. 

Here's what Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg) are saying about Airbus: 

Deutsche Bank (Christophe Menard, buy, PT €152)

• Beat on deliveries potentially signals an improvement in the supply chain and bodes well for deliveries in 2024
• Record order intake is "more striking" and bodes well for free cashflow generation in 2H thanks to higher-than-expected prepayments
• Airbus is likely to beat its FY23 Ebit and free cashflow guidance when it reports on Feb. 15

Citi (Charles Armitage, buy)

• Notes Airbus delivered 15 more planes than guided during the year; makes rough estimate that this could provide €225m tailwind to full year profit guidance 
•  Airbus has a backlog of 8,593 aircraft; equivalent to 11.7 years based on 2023 delivery rate, but notes Airbus is ramping- up production

William Blair (Louie DiPalma) 

• Airbus delivered 207 more aircraft in 2023 than US rival Boeing, and secured significantly more orders; adds Airbus will likely beat Boeing on orders in January in wake of the Alaska Airlines incident

Airlines are flocking to Airbus planes while Boeing battles a reputation crisis over quality control issues of its 737 Max.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/airbus-jet-orders-hit-record-boeing-plagued-reputation-crisis-over-max-woes

Do bitcoin ETFs have a place in retirement portfolios?

 The SEC's decision opens up 401(k)s and IRAs to investing in bitcoin

The SEC's approval of bitcoin ETFs arguably is the occasion to sell, not buy.

This is especially important for retirement investors to consider, since this week's SEC decision will make bitcoin ETFs eligible for inclusion in 401(k)s and self-directed IRAs.

Perhaps the most compelling reason to be skeptical of bitcoin in the wake of the SEC's decision is that the existence of a bitcoin ETF should not change the cryptocurrency's underlying value, according to Itzhak Ben-David, a finance professor at The Ohio State University.

In an email, he pointed out that "the price of bitcoin should be based on its intrinsic value, not on whether there is an ETF. The fact that bitcoin's price depends on an ETF indicates how much the price depends on the size of the crowd that speculates and likely indicates that the price doesn't indicate the intrinsic value."

The upshot, he continued, is that it's "very likely" that both the new ETFs and bitcoin itself will fall in coming days and weeks.

Ben-David bases his prediction on a study he co-authored last year that was published in the Review of Financial Studies. The study was titled "Competition for Attention in the ETF Space," and was co-authored with Byungwook Kim of The Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland, and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova.

The researchers' argument is based on the nearly universal tendency of providers of specialized ETFs to focus new offerings on themes that are riding a wave of investor enthusiasm. This is hardly surprising, since it wouldn't make business sense for them to bring an ETF to market in which few investors were interested. Nevertheless, this tendency makes it likely that specialized ETFs at launch are invested in overvalued securities.

This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. Notice that the average specialized ETF performs significantly worse than the average broad-based ETF, and worse still relative to the market. This period of underperformance lasts for at least five years after launch.

These precedents already constitute strong headwinds to the new bitcoin ETFs. But there's another reason as well: Bitcoin's rally in wake of the SEC's decision suggests that investor sentiment about bitcoin is especially frothy. Ben-David refers to this as a "reverse-causality channel": In addition to these new ETFs responding to investor interest in bitcoin that is already inflated, bitcoin is itself responding to the creation of these ETFs by rising even more. Such feedback loops often end in big drops.

Bitcoin's fair value

Assessing the likely direction of any asset is difficult, but especially so in the case of bitcoin since there is nothing analogous to a company's earnings or dividends on which an analyst could base an estimate of fair value. In previous columns, I have relied on a bitcoin fair-value model that is based on Metcalfe's Law. Please refer to an October 2023 column for a fuller description of the model.

This model has a creditable record, successfully identifying periods in which bitcoin is extremely over- or undervalued. Currently, according to this model, bitcoin's fair value is around a quarter less than its actual price.

For these and other reasons, there are good odds that the new bitcoin ETFs will lag a simple low-cost broad stock market index fund over the next five years.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240113123/do-bitcoin-etfs-have-a-place-in-retirement-portfolios