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Tuesday, January 16, 2024

'OpenAI’s Altman: Human-level AI coming but will change world much less than we think'

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says concerns that artificial intelligence will one day become so powerful that it will dramatically reshape and disrupt the world are overblown.

“It will change the world much less than we all think and it will change jobs much less than we all think,” Altman said at a conversation organized by Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Altman was specifically referencing artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a term used to refer to a form of AI that can complete tasks to the same level, or a step above, humans.

He said AGI could be developed in the “reasonably close-ish future.”

Altman, whose company burst into the mainstream after the public launch of the ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, has tried to temper concerns from AI skeptics about the degree to which the technology will take over society.

Before the introduction of OpenAI’s GPT-4 model in March, Altman warned technologists not to get overexcited by its potential, saying that people would likely be “disappointed” with it.

“People are begging to be disappointed and they will be,” Altman said during a January interview with StrictlyVC. “We don’t have an actual [artificial general intelligence] and that’s sort of what’s expected of us.”

Founded in 2015, OpenAI’s stated mission is to achieve AGI. The company, which is backed by Microsoft and has a private market valuation approaching $100 billion, says it wants to design the technology safely.

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa Republican caucus on Monday, Altman was asked whether AI might exacerbate economic inequalities and lead to dislocation of the working class as the presidential elections pick up steam.

“Yes, for sure, I think that’s something to think about,” Altman said. But he later said, “This is much more of a tool than I expected.”

Altman said AI isn’t yet replacing jobs at the scale that many economists fear, and added that the technology is already getting to a place where it’s becoming an “incredible tool for productivity.”

Concerns about AI safety and OpenAI’s role in protecting it were at the center of Altman’s brief ouster from the company in November after the board said it had lost confidence in its leader. Altman was swiftly reinstated as CEO after a broad backlash from OpenAI employees and investors. Upon his return, Microsoft gained a nonvoting board observer seat at OpenAI.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/16/openais-sam-altman-agi-coming-but-is-less-impactful-than-we-think.html

KKR-Backed BrightSpring Is Seeking Up to $1.36 Billion, Sources Say

Company is looking to raise as much as $960 million in IPO
BrightSpring also plans to market some tangible equity units

BrightSpring Health Services Inc. is seeking to raise as much as $1.36 billion in an initial public offering and a sale of convertible securities, people familiar with the situation said.

The community-based health-care services provider backed by KKR & Co. plans to market 53.3 million shares for $15 to $18 each to raise about $960 million at the top end of that range, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information wasn’t public yet. BrightSpring could file its latest plans with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as Wednesday and begin marketing the shares, the people said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/kkr-backed-brightspring-is-seeking-up-to-1-36-billion-sources-say

Americans Warned About Dating Apps After 8 Suspicious Deaths In Colombia

by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The State Department has issued a warning to American travelers, urging them not to use dating apps while in Colombia after reports of multiple “suspicious deaths” of U.S. citizens in the South American country.

Colombia has been marked as a “reconsider travel” destination for Americans since Jan. 2, with the State Department citing concerns about crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping risks.

“Violent crime, such as homicide, assault, and armed robbery, is widespread,” the State Department states in the advisory. “Organized criminal activities, such as extortion, robbery, and kidnapping, are common in some areas.”

More recently, the State Department issued a warning of a new threat—with the use of dating apps being a common denominator.

Suspicious Deaths

The U.S. Embassy in Bogota, the capital of Colombia, was made aware of eight “suspicious deaths” of private U.S. citizens in Medellín between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2023, according to a Jan. 10 advisory.

“The deaths appear to involve either involuntary drugging overdose or are suspected homicides,” the advisory states.

While it’s not believed that the deaths are directly linked as each involved “distinct circumstances,” a number of them involved the use of online dating apps, along with possible drugging, overdose, and robbery.

Disturbing Trends in Crime Against Foreign Visitors

Local authorities in Medellín have noted a significant increase in crimes against foreign visitors.

Observatory of the District Personnel of Medellín reports that the number of thefts committed against foreigners (with the exception of Venezuelans) jumped 200 percent in the latter part of last year.

Additionally, violent deaths of visitors from other countries have jumped 29 percent—with a notable majority of the victims being U.S. citizens.

Dating Apps as Tools for Criminal Activities

Criminals in Colombia are reportedly using dating apps to lure victims, particularly foreigners, to meet them in places like hotels, restaurants, and bars—with the aim of robbing them.

“Numerous U.S. citizens in Colombia have been drugged, robbed, and even killed by their Colombian dates,” the advisory warns.

The U.S. Embassy notes that these incidents are on the rise, with major cities like Medellín, Cartagena, and Bogotá being hotspots for such crimes.

While such incidents are reported regularly to the U.S. Embassy in Colombia, it’s likely that the scale of the problem is greater than it seems as these types of crimes “routinely go underreported” because victims are often embarrassed and reluctant to pursue legal action.

Precautionary Measures

Some key actions to take include being cautious when using online dating apps and meeting strangers only in public places.

Travelers to Colombia are also advised to avoid isolated locations when meeting people who they found through dating apps, and informing friends or family members about plans for the meeting.

The advisory also suggests taking extra security measures when meeting new acquaintances and not physically resisting any robbery attempt.

“Victims of crime who resist robbery are more likely to be killed,” the advisory states.

The Colombia travel advisory—and the warning about criminals using dating apps to lure victims—comes after the State Department issued a worldwide caution alert for Americans traveling abroad after the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war last October.

Worldwide Caution Alert

The State Department’s worldwide caution alert cites increased tensions globally and the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations, or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests.

The latest alert was prompted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which came after Hamas (a designated terror group) attacked parts of Israel, killing hundreds of civilians and leading to an extensive Israeli bombing campaign targeting Gaza, the area Hamas controls.

This caution alert comes after the last worldwide advisory in 2022, which followed a U.S. strike that killed al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/americans-warned-about-dating-apps-after-8-suspicious-deaths-colombia

Hamas’ underground tunnels over 350 miles long, have turned Gaza ‘into a fortress’: officials

Hamas’ sinister network of tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip may be over 350 miles long – or hundreds of miles more than initial estimates, sources said this week.

The tunnels may run for anywhere between 350 to 450 miles, and boast a staggering 5,700 entrance shafts, senior Israeli officials told The New York Times.

The new estimates – which could not be confirmed – are over 100 miles longer than the original numbers, which placed the tunnel network at around 250 miles long, the outlet noted.

The tunnels’ vastness is “extraordinary” given that Gaza’s longest point only stretches about 25 miles, the Times said.

“Hamas has used the time and resources over the last 15 years to turn Gaza into a fortress,” Aaron Greenstone, a former C.I.A. officer who has worked extensively in the Middle East, told the outlet.

There about 100 miles of the tunnels are located underneath Khan Younis in southern Gaza, where Israeli troops are currently focusing their most intensive efforts as they scour the area for Hamas’ military leader, Yahya Sinwar, the anonymous officials explained.

Hamas budgeted $1 million for tunnel doors and underground workshops in Khan Younis alone, one 2022 document showed.

Hamas’ tunnels have played a central role in Israel’s ground offensive on the Gaza Strip, which started after the terror group slaughtered about 1,200 people and kidnapped around 240 more on Oct 7.

There are believed to be about 130 hostages left in Gaza – many of whom are suspected to be held somewhere in the vast tunnel network.

Thanks to new intelligence gathered during the campaign, the IDF can now quickly detect a single tunnel – a task they previously took up to a year, one anonymous official told the Times.

Some of the crucial information was found on the computers of Hamas operatives who were involved in digging the tunnels, as well as a list of families that “hosted” the tunnel shafts underneath their homes, the insider said.

The IDF has also arrived at a “triangle” system that helped them determine that they are likely to find tunnels below areas with schools, hospitals, or mosques.

The military has also determined two different types of shafts, including one used by operatives and one used by commanders, the Times said.

The commander tunnels are deeper and more comfortable, and allow for longer stays underground.

One soldier, speaking to the Times on the condition of anonymity, said he oversaw the destruction of about 50 booty-trapped tunnels in Beit Hanoun.

The shafts had bombs hidden in the walls and even a large explosive that was hard-wired to be activated remotely, he added.

On Jan. 8, Israeli soldiers took a group of journalists to see three tunnel shafts in central Gaza – including one inside a single-story farm building on the outskirts of Bureij and two others inside a civilian steelworks and a nearby shed.

The shaft inside the steelworks descended about 30 years and even had a kind of elevator, the Times reported.

The tunnel was used to transport munitions that were molded in the steelworks, the Israeli soldiers said.

A nearby bucket of shells or rocket heads were modeled off a template of US-made mortar shells, they added.

Inside the shed, Hamas appeared to have stored 10 large rockets that the soldiers said had a range of about 60 miles.

The logo for Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam brigades, was emblazoned on a wall of the tunnel.

The third tunnel shaft beneath the farm building was concealed behind a locked door that had been blown off its hinges, the Times said.

Despite major progress over just a few months, officials cautioned that disabling the entire tunnel network could take years, and soldiers work to map out each shaft and its incumbent traps and other risks.

https://nypost.com/2024/01/16/news/hamas-gaza-tunnels-at-least-350-miles-long-officials/

China Population Extends Record Drop on Covid Deaths, Low Births

Births hit a new low in 2023, falling to 9.02 million
Deaths rose likely due to excess deaths from abrupt Covid exit

China’s population extended a historic decline in 2023 as deaths rose after Beijing ended strict pandemic curbs and births continued to fall.

China recorded 11.1 million deaths, some 690,000 higher than the previous year’s 10.41 million, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Wednesday. The increase is likely due to a swell in Covid-related fatalities in the months after authorities abandoned their Covid Zero strategy in December 2022 and led to an explosion of infections.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/china-population-extends-historic-decline-as-covid-deaths-surged

'No rate cuts in 2024? Why investors should think about the unthinkable'

Bank of America is considering a scenario in which central banks may not cut interest rates this year

One major Wall Street bank is weighing in on what it calls "an extreme scenario" in which no Group of 10 central bank cuts interest rates this year due to sticky inflation, strong economic growth or fresh shocks that push price gains higher.In a note on Tuesday, Athanasios Vamvakidis, a U.K.-based FX strategist at Bank of America (BAC), said it's worth considering the implication of a seemingly "unrealistic" scenario in which major central banks stay on hold.For now, markets are pricing in about six interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, starting, respectively, in March and April; five cuts by the Bank of England; and two cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. B. of A. foresees fewer cuts for all of them because of persistent inflation, resilient economies, and "stretched" labor markets, the strategist said. Adding some credence to B. of A.'s views were comments from policymakers in the U.S. and overseas. European Central Bank governing council members Robert Holzmann and François Villeroy de Galhau attempted to cool the market's rate-cut hopes on Monday and Tuesday. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller also said there is no need to be "rushed" with rate cuts. Their remarks helped drive a selloff in the U.S. bond market that pushed the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y up 11.5 basis points to 4.064%, and had fed funds traders pulling back slightly on the extent of rate cuts they envision by December.

"The most important discussion in the market as the new year has started is not if, but when and how fast G-10 central banks will start to cut policy rates," Vamvakidis said. "Even if a scenario of central banks staying on hold this year may seem completely unrealistic to the consensus, it is still worth considering its market implications in our view, as we are puzzled by the aggressive market pricing of rate cuts this year."In B. of A.'s year-ahead discussions with investors, "nobody has considered a scenario in which no central bank cuts rates this year," the strategist wrote in Tuesday's note titled "Thinking the unthinkable." He said an "extreme scenario in which no G-10 central bank cuts rates this year" would likely be positive for the dollar, euro, and Swiss franc versus the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar and Japan's yen.

Adding to concerns about lingering inflation are two factors right now. One is the developments in the Middle East, where U.S.-led strikes on Yemen's Houthi rebels had British oil company Shell PLC (U.K.:SHEL) suspending shipments through the Red Sea. As traders continued to monitor the events, oil futures (CL00) (CL.1) initially rose before ending lower on Tuesday.A second factor is U.S. wage growth, which came in at an unexpectedly strong 0.4% for December and 4.1% on a year-over-year basis, and was described by Brent Schutte, chief investment officer of Milwaukee-based Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., as "the one remaining ember that could reignite inflation."Treasury yields finished with their biggest one-day jumps of the month or two on Tuesday. This was the case even though traders of fed-funds futures mostly clung to expectations for at least six quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by December from the Fed, which would drive the main U.S. policy rate target down to 4%, 3.75% or lower. U.S. stocks DJIA SPX COMP closed lower, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was up 1%. The type of U.S. interest-rate cuts currently envisioned by markets are considered to be maintenance moves, designed to keep interest-rate levels from becoming too restrictive as inflation falls.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240116788/no-rate-cuts-in-2024-why-investors-should-think-about-the-unthinkable

Trump hints at ‘important’ role for Burgum in potential next administration

Former President Trump says that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) might have an “important” role in his next administration if he returns to the White House.

“Doug Burgum from North Dakota, the governor and his beautiful wife, Catherine, and he got out of the race. What people don’t know is that he actually supported me on the other side, twice already. Then he decided to do it. And he was outstanding, but the traction is never easy, right?” Trump said in remarks after winning the Iowa caucuses Monday.

“You need controversy for traction sometimes, and this guy is the most solid guy. There’s no controversy whatsoever,” he added. “And he’s one of the best governors in our country, and I hope that I’m going to be able to call on him to be a piece of the administration, a very important piece of the administration.”

Burgum launched a long-shot bid for the GOP presidential nomination last year but suspended his campaign last month after failing to gain steam in the polls. The governor endorsed Trump at an Iowa campaign rally Sunday — just one day before the former president easily won the caucuses.

Burgum said in his endorsement that states such as North Dakota “had a friend and a partner in the White House” when Trump was in the White House. Burgum is up for reelection for a third gubernatorial term in 2024 but has not yet publicly announced any plans.

Speculation has also swirled over whom Trump will select as his running mate if he continues on his glide path to the GOP nomination.

The former president suggested during a Fox News town hall last week that he already knew who his vice presidential pick would be and indicated that he would be open to choosing someone who had previously run against him.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4412264-trump-burgum-administration-2024/