“GET ME A DEAL!”

 That is what Joe Biden demanded of the Israelis, Hamas and representatives of Qatar and Egypt who are trying to broker a cease-fire agreement. As though he were the party in interest. The Telegraph interprets Biden’s motives:

Mr Biden is under major pressure from voters over the US alliance with Israel, and the president was punished at the ballot box by protesting young Democrats in the primaries last week.

So what would a proposed deal look like?

A potential deal could include a six-week pause in fighting, the release of approximately 400 Palestinian prisoners in return for the freeing of 40 Israeli hostages, as well as preparation for a gradual return of Palestinian citizens to the northern part of the Gaza Strip.

Why 40 hostages? Why not all of them? Why should Israel even discuss a proposal that does not include a total release of kidnap victims? And how about a Hamas surrender? Normally, when a country starts a war and then loses it, if it wants the fighting to stop it has to surrender. It is bizarre that some people take seriously the idea that Hamas should survive the war it foolishly started.

Happily, Israel has decided not to attend the cease-fire negotiations in Cairo:

Israel will not be sending a negotiating team to Cairo, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday, after receiving an unsatisfactory response from Hamas on the latest framework for a hostage deal hammered out in Paris last weekend.

The Gaza-based terror organization refused to address Jerusalem’s demand to provide a list of living hostages and to lock down how many Palestinian prisoners Israel must release for every hostage freed, added the official.

My guess is that Gaza doesn’t want to provide a list of living kidnap victims because a shocking number have been murdered. In any event, Israel shouldn’t allow Hamas’s transparent diplomatic maneuvering, or hysterical reactions from the Biden administration, to distract It from the total victory it needs to achieve over Gaza.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/03/get-me-a-deal.php

GSK upped to Buy by Guggenheim

 From Neutral

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GSK&p=d

One Bank Asks "Could A Central Bank Somewhere Be Buying Crypto Assets?"

 By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank

We're going to build a (tariff) wall...

Crude oil prices spiked on Friday evening following news that OPEC+ and Russia will extend production cuts through to June of this year. Brent closed 2% higher at $83.55/bbl, which means that prices have now risen by more than $6/bbl since the start of the year. Gold also caught a bid on Friday night to close the week at $2,082/ounce. This followed weaker than expected ISM survey data out on the United States that saw 2-year yields fall 9bps to 4.53% and the S&P500 hit fresh all-time-highs. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin surge continues apace after prices for ‘digital gold’ finished the week slightly above $62,500.

Judging from the price action last week, the everything rally remains resilient to the effects of monetary tightening. Have we sprung a monetary leak somewhere that is providing mysterious liquidity into markets? Or is this all just a huge lag effect as the Covid-era torrents of easy money continue to wash through the economy and the US deficit remains close to 6.5% of GDP?

Whatever the case, some of the moves are very interesting. News has emerged of a crypto whale dubbed ‘Mr 100’ who has been quietly accumulating a $3.1bn stash of Bitcoin. Decrypt.co reports that the mysterious whale is unlikely to be US-domiciled, and unlikely to be one of the new Bitcoin ETF operators since those have already disclosed their blockchain addresses. Could a central bank somewhere be buying crypto assets?

There is plenty on the calendar this week for markets to digest, but of particular interest is the National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The meeting begins on Tuesday and will include an updated growth target for the Chinese economy. Last year’s ‘modest’ 5% target was exceeded by two-tenths of a percentage point after helpful base effects and data revisions helped the economy over the line. The speculation is that the CCP will again set 5% as the official goal, although our own China watcher, Teeuwe Mevissen, expects growth of just 4.6% in the Middle Kingdom this year.

In the United States we have the non-farm payrolls report at the end of the week, but on a longer view the possibility of universal tariffs will have much more structural bearing on who produces  what and where, and for how much, and to be sold to who. This Daily last week canvased the possibility of outright bans on Chinese auto imports into the United States as the Biden White House attempts to outbid Donald Trump on America First protectionism. Trump’s threats of 10% universal tariffs, with tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods, would be certainly be a big structural change that, in our view, could reignite inflation. It also (by design) poses risks to the Chinese growth model.

With real-estate and infrastructure investment already reeling from heavy debt loads, a loss of confidence and Xi Xinping’s Common Prosperity initiatives to rein-in speculation on house prices, the China model will be even more reliant on production and exports. It’s worth asking the question whether that can still work in a world where the world’s biggest market is potentially slapping a 60% tax on your exports. Of course, Chinese goods could flow into other markets like Europe, but if the Trump tariffs are enacted it would take all of 5 minutes before European leaders follow suit in an effort to protect their own sputtering industry from Chinese competition.

So where does this leave China? The worst case would be massive oversupply, deflation and economic depression as China fails to escape the Middle Income Trap. The alternative might be economic reorganization away from a production-led economy toward a more balanced growth model that emphasises internal consumption. Such a reorganization would also start to address one of the major (but not the only) impediment to the adoption of CNY as a reserve currency: China’s enormous trade surplus, but it would stand at odds with Xi Xinping thought that sees consumerism as decadent and production as virtuous. That’s a vicious circle to square, but if it is to ever happen, we should expect to see early signs this week.

This week will be important for other reasons. We are now one week out from the date at which the Fed will cease issuing new loans under the BTFP program. Regular readers will remember that this was the liquidity facility put in place during the mini banking crisis last year. Under the terms of the program, the Fed accepts collateral from the banking system while paying out the par value (!) of the securities in cash. Questions remain over what will happen to US regional banks with a large share of commercial real estate loans on the balance sheet (many due for refinance shortly!) once the banking system can no longer pretend that those loans are not underwater.

It may be the case that the Fed had hoped that they would be cutting rates by now and the capitalisation rates on commercial real estate would look less bad as a result. Unfortunately, last week’s PCE data did little too further the case for imminent cuts. PCE rose by 0.3% in January, but if you move the decimal a couple of places it becomes obvious how close we came to a 0.4% reading instead. One Swallow does not make a summer, but the January PCE result marks a substantial acceleration compared to December, November and October. That’s despite being helped by lower fuel prices that are unlikely to be replicated in February. The +0.4% core reading was the highest since January of last year, and the +0.6% services ex housing and energy reading was the highest since December of 2021.

In Europe last week the inflation story was similar. Eurozone preliminary CPI for February rose at the fastest pace since April last year. It was up 0.6% m-o-m, which translates to a 2.6% y-o-y figure. That was a little below the 2.8% figure for January but higher than the consensus estimate of 2.5%. The core reading printed at 3.1% versus an analyst consensus of 2.9%. So the direction is right, but progress is slow, and as our Head of Macro Research, Elwin de Groot, pointed out in a piece last week, the Red Sea shipping disruptions could pose a substantial upside risk to Eurozone price pressures.

So, for the moment at least we have encountered a bump in the road back to low and stable inflation. Central banks ought to be cognizant of the risks in cutting rates while loads of asset classes are already making new highs every other day, and the spectre of geopolitics looms as a potential spoiler for markets that think only in terms of free-flowing trade and capital. In a world of rapid change, the ability to think outside accepted paradigms is becoming more and more important.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-could-central-bank-somewhere-be-buying-crypto-assets

'Positive immune response against mpox using a COVID-19 vaccine'

 Scientists at City of Hope, one of the largest cancer research and treatment organizations in the United States, show that a COVID-19 vaccine developed at the organization's Los Angeles campus also protects against mpox, according to research published in Communications Medicine.

The vaccine was developed in the laboratory of Don J. Diamond, Ph.D., City of Hope professor in the Department of Hematology & Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation and a member of the Hematological Malignancies Research Institute.

In research led by vaccine experts at City of Hope, a novel COVID-19 vaccine candidate (COH04S1) has been found to also elicit a robust immune response to the mpox (formerly known as monkey pox) virus. Humans and nonhuman primates who received COH04S1 generated an mpox virus (MPXV) cross-reactive antibody response similar to individuals who were vaccinated against mpox by the only Food and Drug Administration-approved smallpox/mpox vaccine on the market, JYNNEOS.

In a relevant mouse model, the authors also showed that the novel COVID-19 vaccine provides protection against the mpox virus strain that caused the recent 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak. COH04S1 could represent a new tool for vaccinating against COVID-19 and mpox with just one injection. COH04S1 is licensed to Geovax laboratories (NASDAQ: GOVX) for COVID-19 and mpox.

In 2020, researchers at City of Hope developed a fully synthetic platform of the highly attenuated modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) vector that is virtually identical to the form used in the JYNNEOS vaccine. MVA is a strain of a type of poxvirus used to deliver genes to cells that help the body figure out how to fight a virus. The scientists established a virtually identical replica of MVA and used it to make a multiantigen COVID-19 vaccine that is now in Phase 2 clinical trials and represents the most clinically advanced MVA-based COVID-19 vaccine.

Because the vaccine uses a poxvirus replica, the team wanted to see if it also protected against mpox, and found that it does. In fact, they found that mice vaccinated with COH04S1 or just the synthetic MVA both were protected from lung infection after being exposed to a globally circulating strain of mpox, further proving that the synthetic MVA shares virtually identical properties to the natural MVA.

While mpox is not an emergency at the moment, it is reemerging in various locales worldwide (Africa and Asia) and other poxvirus strains with pandemic potential could occur in the future. The COH04S1 vaccine could protect against different poxvirus strains and has the potential to be used as a dual vaccine that can be effective against COVID-19 and mpox disease. Furthermore, because the basic vaccine design can be modified, there could be multiple applications in which vaccines are made for other infectious disease indications but always include background protection against mpox.

The researchers also believe that COH04S1 could serve as an alternative to JYNNEOS in the face of a large outbreak or vaccine shortage, as viral vector vaccine production is hard to scale up rapidly. Immunocompromised individuals are more susceptible to mpox infection symptoms. Because COH04S1 uses the synthetic MVA vector that has been safely tested in hematopoietic cell transplant recipients, it could also serve as a much-needed option for this population and other immunocompromised populations, such as people living with HIV and cancer.

The research team is actively moving forward with plans to develop COH04S1 as an alternative to JYNNEOS and are currently producing it in a cell line for vaccinations. They would also like to develop a clinical trial to do a direct comparison of COH04S1 and JYNNEOS to see if there are differences in response rates and mechanisms.

Flavia Chiuppesi, Ph.D., formerly at City of Hope, is the study's lead author. Study author Felix Wussow, Ph.D., City of Hope assistant research professor in the Department of Hematology & Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation, is an inventor and developer of the COVID-19 vaccine, as well as the synthetic vaccine platform, along with Diamond and Chiuppesi. John Zaia, M.D., the Aaron D. Miller and Edith Miller Chair in Gene Therapy at City of Hope, is the paper's second author. Diamond is the principal investigator of these studies and a paid consultant for Geovax.

More information: Flavia Chiuppesi et al, Synthetic modified vaccinia Ankara vaccines confer cross-reactive and protective immunity against mpox virus, Communications Medicine (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s43856-024-00443-9

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-03-scientists-positive-immune-response-mpox.html

DNA aptamer drug sensors can instantly detect cocaine, heroin, fentanyl—even combined with other drugs

 Researchers from North Carolina State University have developed a new generation of high-performance DNA aptamers and highly accurate drug sensors for cocaine and other opioids. The sensors are drug-specific and can detect trace amounts of fentanyl, heroin, and cocaine—even when these drugs are mixed with other drugs or with cutting agents and adulterants such as caffeine, sugar, or procaine. The sensors could have far-reaching benefits for health care workers and law enforcement agencies.

"This work can provide needed updates to currently used tests, both in health care and law enforcement settings," says Yi Xiao, associate professor of chemistry at NC State and corresponding author of two studies describing the work.

"For example, drug field testing currently used by law enforcement still relies on chemical tests developed a century ago that are poorly specific, which means they react to compounds that may not be the drug they're looking for," Xiao says.

"And the existing aptamer test for cocaine isn't sensitive and specific enough to detect clinically relevant amounts of the drug in biological samples, like blood. The sensors we developed can detect cocaine in blood at nanomolar, rather than micromolar, levels, which represents a 1,000-fold improvement in sensitivity."

In a pair of studies appearing in the Journal of the American Chemical Society (JACS) and JACS Au, Xiao led a team that developed aptamer-based sensors for cocaine, heroin, codeine, fentanyl and other illicit drugs.

An aptamer is a short single strand of DNA or RNA that will bind to a specific molecule with high affinity, meaning that it won't bind to molecules other than the one of interest. The researchers begin the search by adding the molecule of interest—cocaine, for example—to a mixture of hundreds of trillions of randomized DNA sequences. Then they see which aptamer binds to the molecule.

"We refer to the process as 'bio-panning,' since it is a lot like sifting through river sediment to find gold," says Obtin Alkhamis, NC State graduate student and co-author of both papers. "Once we separate the target-bound strands from non-bound strands, we rigorously test that aptamer against other interfering compounds to ensure that it is specific only to the compound of interest."

The researchers then tested the compound-specific aptamers against pharmaceutical mixtures, tablets and blood, to determine whether they could identify certain drugs in the samples.

Xiao's team used the cocaine aptamer to detect cocaine in blood serum at levels of 10 nanomolar (equivalent to 30 nanograms per milliliter or 30 parts-per-billion), a 1,000-fold improvement over the best prior aptamer test which can only detect 10 micromolar cocaine in 50% serum.

Additionally, collaborators at the University of California Santa Barbara were able to incorporate the aptamer into an electrode that could measure drug concentration in situ in the blood (in a vein) of rats in real time every 10 seconds over a two-hour time period. This is the first study able to measure the pharmacology of a drug of abuse with time resolution measured in seconds.

The opioid-specific aptamers were incorporated into colorimetric assays that can specifically detect opioids like heroin and oxycodone in solution at levels as low as 0.5 micromolar (μM). A colorimetric assay is a test that changes color when the compound of interest is detected. These assays were also able to detect opioids in complex chemical matrices within seconds—including pharmaceutical tablets and drug mixtures.

For comparison, the "Marquis test," a standard test used by law enforcement officials and forensic laboratories, could not detect opioids in chemical mixtures.

The researchers believe that these aptamer sensors have useful applications for health and public safety.

"The aptamers can be mass produced, have a long shelf life and are easily chemically modified, which means they can be utilized for any type of sensor you develop," Xiao says. "So they could be incorporated into testing strips for officers in the field, for use at home or for human patients in a physician's office."

"Since they detect drugs at clinically relevant levels, you could potentially do a blood drop test in the ER to immediately determine what a patient may have taken, without a full blood draw and lab testing," Alkhamis says. "The possible uses are really exciting."

More information: Obtin Alkhamis et al, High-Affinity Aptamers for In Vitro and In Vivo Cocaine Sensing, Journal of the American Chemical Society (2024). DOI: 10.1021/jacs.3c11350

Juan Canoura et al, Developing Aptamer-Based Colorimetric Opioid Tests, JACS Au (2024). DOI: 10.1021/jacsau.3c00801

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-03-dna-aptamer-drug-sensors-instantly.html

TLC puts additional electric Ubers and Lyfts on hold in NYC after last year’s run on plates

 The Taxi and Limousine Commission said additional electric Uber and Lyft cars are “not needed at this time,” in New York City following a run on the cars last year that added more than 7,500 EVs to the city’s rideshare fleet.

The news was quietly announced in the TLC’s annual report on the state of the city’s for-hire vehicle industry, published late Friday.

“Based on [the TLC’s] analysis, the pending litigation concerning TLC’s decision to issue EV-restricted licenses under the previous License Review, and the need to evaluate the impact of new licenses before determining whether any additional licenses should be made available,” the report continues, “TLC finds that additional for-hire vehicle licenses are not needed at this time.”

Last fall’s run on the coveted TLC license plates, which are required to accept app-based hails, came after the New York Taxi Worker’s Alliance sued to stop the Adams administration from modifying the 2018-era cap on for-hire vehicles to allow an unlimited number of Ubers and Lyfts, so long as they were electric. The plan was part of the Mayor’s so-called Green Rides initiative, meant to make the entire fleet electric by 2030.

The Taxi Workers Alliance argued that the TLC didn’t have the legal authority to unilaterally change the license plate cap rules, and that a slew of new vehicles with TLC plates would saturate the market, hurting existing ride-share and yellow taxicab drivers.

In response, Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Machelle Sweeting in November ordered a temporary stop to the new licenses. At the time, Sweeting granted a five-day grace period for those who may have already purchased an electric car. By its end, 9,756 applications had been filed to the TLC.

https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/03/04/tlc-puts-additional-electric-ubers-and-lyfts-on-hold-in-nyc-after-last-years-run-on-plates/

AMA asks US to make funds available to doctors hurt by Unitedhealth hack

 Influential U.S. doctors’ group the American Medical Association (AMA) on Thursday asked the Biden Administration to make emergency funds available to physicians hurt by ongoing problems created by the hack of UnitedHealth’s Change Healthcare unit.

The AMA said the cyberattack on Change, which provides healthcare billing and data systems, has led to disruptions of numerous administrative and billing processes at physician practices. They said that many practices have not been able to submit insurance claims for reimbursement since the hack was disclosed on Feb. 21.

“We urge HHS to utilize any available emergency funds and authorities to provide critical financial resources to physicians, ensuring they can continue to deliver essential healthcare services during these challenging times,” AMA Chief Executive James Madara wrote in a letter to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

U.S. Senator Charles Schumer has also written to the top U.S. Medicare official to ask that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) make accelerated and advanced payments available to impacted hospitals, pharmacies, and providers.

“Hospitals, pharmacies, and healthcare providers are facing an immediate – and rapidly intensifying – adverse impact on their cash flow and, ultimately, on their financial solvency,” Schumer wrote to CMS Administrator Chiquita Brooks-LaSure on Friday.

The Change hack was perpetrated by hackers who identified themselves as the “Blackcat” ransomware group. Change said last week it had enabled a new version of its ePrescribing service for all its customers, more than a week after it reported a hack that had a knock-on effect on players across the U.S. healthcare system.

https://wmbdradio.com/2024/03/04/physician-group-asks-us-to-make-funds-available-to-doctors-hurt-by-change-hack/