AwesomeCapital

Sunday, June 30, 2024

Unlikely Sources: 'Behind the Curtain: Biden oligarchy will decide fate'

Forget the pundits. Ignore New York Times editorials and columnists. Tune out people popping off on X.

The only way President Biden steps aside, despite his debate debacle, is if the same small group of lifelong loyalists who enabled his run suddenly — and shockingly — decides it's time for him to call it quits.

Why it matters: Dr. Jill Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden; and 85-year-old Ted Kaufman, the president's longtime friend and constant adviser — plus a small band of White House advisers — are the only Biden deciders.

This decades-long kitchen cabinet operates as an extended family, council of elders and governing oligarchy. These allies alone hold sway over decisions big and small in Biden's life and presidency.

The president engaged in no organized process outside his family in deciding to run for a second term, the N.Y. Times' Peter Baker reports.
Then Biden alone made the decision, people close to him tell us.

Behind the scenes: If Biden stays in, it's for the same reason he decided to run again: He and the oligarchy believe he has a much better chance of beating former President Trump than Vice President Harris does.

Biden allies have played out the scenarios and see little chance of anyone besides Harris winning the nomination if he stepped aside.
Is the Democratic Party going to deny the nomination to the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American to be elected V.P.? Hard to see.
These allies privately think Harris would struggle to pull moderate and swing voters, and would enhance Trump's chances. (Harris "fares only one or two points worse than Biden in polls with margins of sampling error that are much larger than that," The Washington Post found.)

The intrigue: We're told Democratic congressional leaders are one outside force that could bring pressure on Biden.

They're getting calls and texts from panicked lawmakers who fear Biden's weakness could cost the party House and Senate seats in November.

"This is no longer about Joe Biden's family or his emotions," said an adviser in constant touch with the West Wing. "This is about our country. It's an utter f***ing disaster that has to be addressed."

It'll take a while for the oligarchy to process the stakes, this adviser argued, "but there will be a reckoning."

Behind the scenes: Biden insiders are already finding it easier than many realized to rationalize staying in. They argue: Yes, he had a poor debate performance. But Biden also can dial up vigorous appearances like he did in Raleigh on Friday afternoon.

That behind-the-scenes juxtaposition plays out daily: Sometimes he's on his game, sharper than people would think, and quicker on his feet.
But often it's the Biden you saw on the debate stage: tired, slow, halting.

Top Democrats saw what America saw live, on national TV, vividly and unforgettably. They can't unsee it. And they fear voters won't unsee it.

No longer can they blame critics or edited footage or media exaggeration.
Every misstep, verbal hiccup or frozen face will zip across social media and TV, reminding voters Biden will be 86 years old at the end of his second term.

"They need to tell him the absolute truth about where he is," said a well-known Democrat who often talks to the president. "Loyalty doesn't mean blind loyalty."

"Candidates for House, Senate, governor, state legislature are going to be in survival mode," the well-known Democrat added. "They're not going to go down with the ship. And the ship is in a bad place."

What we're hearing: Some Biden family members are digging in — squinting at overnight polls for signs that undecided voters moved Biden's way because of Trump statements at the debate.

"They know it was a disaster," said a source close to the family. "But they think there's a glimmer of survival/hope."
In a Biden campaign memo, "Independent Voters Move to Biden in Debate," officials wrote: "Based on research we conducted during [the] debate, it is clear that the more voters heard from Donald Trump, the more they remembered why they dislike him."

Biden — bolstered by a tweet from former President Obama ("Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know") — sounds like he wants to stick it out.

"When you get knocked down, you get back up," Biden said to applause, reading from a teleprompter during a rally Friday at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds.
"Folks, I don't walk as easy as I used to. I don't speak as smoothly as I used to. I don't debate as well as I used to. But ... I know how to tell the truth."

What we're watching: The public backing of former presidents and current members of Congress says little about Biden's future.

Most know him too well and for too long to humiliate him in public.
Instead, if he decides to go, it'll follow private conversations with them — then a decision with this oligarchy. Remember, it's under eight weeks until Biden is ratified as the official nominee. That's the clock to watch.

What they're saying: James Carville — the "Ragin' Cajun" who masterminded Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign in 1992, and now is a frequent TV pundit — will be 80 in October. He told us that if he appeared like Biden did during the debate, he'd want to be pulled off the tube.

"I never thought this was a nifty idea," Carville said of Biden's run. He said there are few people the president really listens to: "He doesn't have advisers. He has employees."

When we pressed Carville on whether he thinks Biden will be off the ticket by Election Day, he said he thinks so. He invoked a famous quote by the late economist Herb Stein, which Carville paraphrased as: "That which can't continue … won't."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/biden-debate-replace-advisers

Migrants who violently stormed El Paso border crossing were released into US: ICE

They took part in a riot at the border — and then were welcomed into the US.

Dozens of migrants who were accused of violently storming the border at El Paso, Texas on March 21 have been released into the country, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement spokesperson confirmed to The Post.

It’s the latest shocking gut-punch to accountability after 211 migrants were caught on video by The Post rushing toward the US border and attacking Texas National Guardsmen who tried to turn them back to Mexico.

At least one migrant was seen stomping on a service member’s knee during the melee.

In May, an El Paso judge dismissed the criminal charges against all of the border-crossers on a technicality.

The migrants accused of taking part in the riot were then released from state custody and handed over to ICE, which set 43 of them free, a spokesperson said.

ICE determines who to release on a “case-by-case basis,” the spokesperson said.

“ERO [Enforcement and Removal Operations] officers make decisions on associated enforcement actions and apply prosecutorial discretion, where applicable, in a responsible manner, informed by their experience as law enforcement professionals and in a way that best protects the communities we serve.”

However, a Homeland Security source said the reality is much more arbitrary. ICE releases migrants into the US because they can’t deport them fast enough and because authorities need to make room at detention centers for the worst of the worst, according to the source.

“Sometimes we arrest a child molester and he gets released because of housing space. Or the charge is not egregious enough to keep him or her in custody,” the source said.

While ICE has released dozens of migrants who allegedly took part in the riot, the agency has kept 32 others in custody pending court hearings and 105 in detention pending removal from the US.

Another 43 of the alleged rioters have been successfully deported, the spokesperson said.

Texas authorities labeled nine migrants as ringleaders of the riot and intended to file felony rioting charges, two of whom were released by Border Patrol soon after.

Authorities were able to nab one of them, but the other, Venezuelan national Gabriel Enrique Angarita Carrasquero, 22, who allegedly used a “rope to pull the gate down which subsequently led to the migrant rush” remains at large.

In an effort to prevent any future violence at the border, Texas has armed its soldiers and state troopers with non-lethal pepperball guns.

The source said the new tool “has made a massive difference out here on the border,” adding that “soldiers are so much safer now.”

https://nypost.com/2024/06/30/us-news/dozens-of-migrants-who-violently-stormed-border-released-into-us/

Israeli tanks advance into areas in north and south Gaza, fighting rages

Israeli forces advanced further on Sunday into the Shejaia neighborhood of northern Gaza and also pushed deeper into western and central Rafah in the south, killing at least six Palestinians and destroying several homes, residents said.

Israeli tanks, which moved back into Shejaia four days ago, fired shells towards several houses, leaving families trapped inside and unable to leave, the residents said.

The Israeli military said forces operating in Shejaia had over the past day killed several Palestinian gunmen, located weapons, and struck military infrastructure. On Saturday it announced the death of two Israeli soldiers in northern Gaza.

The armed wing of Hamas and the allied Islamic Jihad reported fierce fighting in both Shejaia and Rafah, saying their fighters had fired anti-tank rockets and mortar bombs against Israeli forces operating there.

More than eight months into Israel's air and ground war in Gaza, militants continue to stage attacks on Israeli forces, operating in areas that the Israeli army said it had gained control over months ago.

Arab mediators' efforts, backed by the United States, have so far failed to secure a ceasefire. Hamas says any deal must end the war and bring a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel says it will accept only temporary pauses in the fighting until Hamas, which has governed Gaza since 2007, is eradicated.

Rafah death

In Rafah, near the border with Egypt, Israeli tanks pushed deeper into several districts in the east, west and center of the city, and medics said six people had been killed in an Israeli strike on a house in Shaboura, in the heart of the city.

The six bodies from the Zurub family were transferred to Nasser Hospital in the nearby city of Khan Younis. On Sunday, dozens of relatives paid their respects before the bodies, which were wrapped in white shrouds, and then carried them in their arms to prepared graves.

Residents said the Israeli army had torched the Al-Awda mosque in the centre of Rafah, one of the city's best-known.

Israel has said its military operations in Rafah are aimed at eradicating the last armed battalions of Hamas.

The Israeli military said on Sunday its forces continued "targeted, intelligence-based" operations in Rafah, killing several gunmen in different encounters and dismantling tunnels.

The latest Gaza war erupted when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and seizing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel's retaliatory offensive has so far killed nearly 38,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and has left the heavily built-up coastal enclave in ruins.

The Gaza health ministry does not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants but officials say most of the dead are civilians. More than 300 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza and Israel says at least a third of the Palestinian dead are fighters.

https://www.voanews.com/a/israeli-tanks-advance-into-areas-in-north-and-south-gaza-fighting-rages/7678425.html

US Supreme Court’s slow pace on immunity makes Trump trial before election unlikely

Donald Trump’s bid for criminal immunity from prosecution for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss is set to be decided on Monday by the US Supreme Court. But however it rules, the court already has helped the former president in his effort to avoid trial before the Nov. 5 election.

The ruling from the court, whose 6-3 conservative majority includes three justices appointed by Trump, will be released 20 weeks after he sought relief from the justices. The timeline of the ruling likely does not leave enough time for Special Counsel Jack Smith to try Trump on the federal four-count indictment obtained last August and for a jury to reach a verdict before voters head to the polls.
“The amount of delay that has resulted has made it almost impossible to get the case to trial before the election,” said George Washington University law professor Randall Eliason, a former federal prosecutor. “The court should have treated it with much more urgency than it did.”
Trump is the Republican candidate challenging Democratic President Joe Biden in a 2020 election rematch. He is the first former US president to be criminally prosecuted, and already has been convicted in a case in New York state court involving hush money paid to a porn star before the 2016 election. If he regains the presidency, Trump could try to force an end to the special counsel’s case or potentially pardon himself for any federal crimes.
The Supreme Court already has handed Trump important victories.
On Friday, it raised the legal bar for prosecutors pursuing obstruction charges in the federal election subversion case against Trump and defendants involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. In March, the court threw out a judicial decision that had disqualified Trump from the presidential primary ballot in Colorado.
The speed with which the court dispatched the Colorado case – quickly agreeing to decide it and ruling in Trump’s favor within a month of hearing arguments – contrasted with a sluggish pace in resolving Trump’s immunity bid that has been to his benefit.
Trump’s trial had been scheduled to start on March 4 before the delays over the immunity issue. Now no trial date is currently set. Trump has pleaded not guilty and called the case politically motivated.
“I don’t think that there is any way the case goes to trial before the election,” said Georgetown University law professor Erica Hashimoto. “Even if the Supreme Court were to affirm the lower courts and say that Trump does not have immunity, the trial court still has to decide a bunch of other legal issues.”
A SLIPPING TIMELINE
Smith, seeking to avoid trial delays, had asked the justices in December to perform a fast-track review after Trump’s immunity claim was rejected by US District Judge Tanya Chutkan. Trump opposed the bid. Rather than resolve the matter promptly, the justices denied Smith’s request and let the case proceed in a lower court, which upheld Chutkan’s ruling against Trump on Feb. 6.
After Trump sought Supreme Court relief on Feb. 12, more than 10 weeks elapsed before the justices would heard the case on April 25, their final day of arguments. And now the ruling will be issued on the final day of the term, nearly nine months after Trump first made a motion to dismiss the charges based on his claim of immunity.
If the Supreme Court rules that former presidents have some degree of criminal immunity — an approach some of the justices appeared to favor during arguments — it could delay the case further. Under one such scenario, the justices could order Chutkan to preside over a potentially time-consuming legal battle about whether certain allegations against Trump must be stricken before the case could advance to trial.
The trial judge also likely will have to decide what, if any, impact the Supreme Court’s decision to heighten the legal standard for prosecutors pursuing obstruction charges against a Jan. 6 defendant will have on Trump, who faces two charges under the same obstruction law.
Chutkan has previously indicated she would give Trump at least three months to prepare for a trial once the case returns to her courtroom. That timeline leaves only a narrow path for a trial to start in October, in the final weeks before the election. A trial so close to Election Day would almost certainly draw claims of election interference from Trump and his legal team.
“The court’s delay in deciding the immunity case has already given Donald Trump a huge win — the delay he sought to push his trial on election interference — and any verdict in the trial -until after the election,” University of Michigan law professor Leah Litman said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-supreme-courts-slow-pace-immunity-makes-trump-trial-before-election-unlikely-2024-06-30/

Biden campaign says debate ‘did not change the horse race’

President Biden’s campaign said in a memo Saturday that his poor showing in Thursday night’s presidential debate “did not change the horse race.”

“Flash polls from CNN, 538, SurveyUSA, Morning Consult, and Data for Progress show what we expected: The debate did not change the horse race,” Biden campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in the memo. “This mirrors what the campaign’s internal post-debate polling showed: The president maintained his support among his 2020 voters and voters’ opinions were not changed.”

Saturday’s memo from the Biden campaign follows a rough few days of press for the president following Thursday’s debate in which Biden faced off against former President Trump. Biden’s performance in the debate, during which he stumbled over his words and had a raspy voice, sparked widespread fears among those in his party and resulted in questioning around if the president should stay in the race as the Democratic nominee.

“It’s a familiar story: Following Thursday night’s debate, the beltway class is counting Joe Biden out,” O’Malley Dillon said in the memo. “The data in the battleground states, though, tells a different story. On every metric that matters, data shows it did nothing to change the American people’s perception, our supporters are more fired up than ever, and Donald Trump only reminded voters of why they fired him four years ago and failed to expand his appeal beyond his MAGA base.”

Even staunch Democrats like those who have worked with former President Obama in the past, have expressed their stress over how the debate went.

“Obviously that debate was a f‑‑‑ing disaster,” former Obama administration speechwriter and “Pod Save America” co-host Jon Favreau posted Friday morning on the social platform X. “We have to beat Donald Trump. We have to have a nominee who can do that.”

Those around Biden have pushed back on talk of him dropping out.

“Of course he’s not dropping out,” Biden campaign spokesperson Seth Schuster said to The Hill following the president’s debate performance.