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Sunday, June 30, 2024

‘Like a Band-Aid on a bullet wound,’ Hamptons donors divided on Biden after fundraiser

On Saturday night in the Hamptons, the buzz at dinner parties and restaurants was about President Biden’s performance at a local, upscale fundraiser, and traffic nightmares his presence caused.

While the president got largely good reviews — words like “strong” and “energetic” were used to describe his appearance at the private event after his Thursday night debate debacle — others weren’t so sure.

One political veteran told Page Six, “Most people said they felt better,” after seeing Biden, “but some felt worse.”

The unconvinced Democrat insider said that while some at the daytime event were reassured that Biden addressed his “bad” debate in his brief speech, “it was like he was putting a Band-Aid on a bullet wound… He did not have a ‘bad’ debate, he was visibly unwell.”

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Many in the liberal Hamptons donor class said they were back on board with Biden, we hear.

“Biden looked and sounded good,” an attendee at the Hamptons event told Page Six, who added that the president gave a “short speech… but strong.”

The Hamptons fixture told us: “The mood was good. People are concerned, but no one is backing down. People are still very committed. They all feel that they must defeat Trump. It will be incumbent on [Biden] and [his] campaign to continue to perform, and show that the debate was a fluke. That’s what people want to see. Step one was today, and he did a good job.”

Attendees at the fundraiser included Howard and Beth Stern, Loews Hotels CEO Jonathan Tisch and his socialite wife Lizzie, and Donald Trump’s former White House Director of Communications Anthony Scaramucci.

A source at the afternoon event said there were about 200 to 250 attendees at the fundraiser, and that it was “sold out, they had to turn people away.”

The same source said Biden’s address was, “basically the same speech” he gave on Friday, the day after the debate, when he was back on the campaign trail in Raleigh, N.C.

A different source told us that in the Hamptons: “The debate is all anyone was talking about. The donor crowd and people in general [were] just concerned after Thursday night. They didn’t know what to expect, and Biden came out looking tan and nothing like the man we saw Thursday.”

The source added of the octogenarian pol, “His mouth wasn’t gaping, he was energetic and gave a great speech. I felt much better after watching it.”

We heard that Biden spoke for 10 to 15 minutes and did not mingle after. He did, however, pose for photos earlier at the event with VIPs. No questions were taken.

“The postmortem from [the debate] is a lot to deal with,” said the same attendee. “His performance was dismal. He mentioned the elephant in the room. He said, ‘I had a bad night, it wasn’t a great performance, we could linger and talk about a bad performance or we could talk about the leadership of the last four years or the end of democracy with Donald Trump.’ He acknowledged it.”

Sources said that Biden doesn’t seem like he’ll resign. But rather, “He’s digging in.”

That sentiment was echoed when he later appeared at a New Jersey fundraiser,

Also at the event where couples shelled out as much as $250,000 were Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick, Michael J. Fox and Tracy Pollan, philanthropists Michael Sonnenfeldt and Katja Goldman, former Andrew Cuomo finance director Jennifer Bayer Michaels, PR whiz Michael Kempner and filmmaker Margaret Munzer Loeb, the wife of hedge funder Daniel Loeb.

Now that Biden is gone, at least Hamptons weekenders can enjoy their Sundays, they said.

The source added of the vibe: “Oy! The rich and famous have their noses all out of joint!”

https://pagesix.com/2024/06/30/gossip/most-hamptons-donors-stand-by-joe-biden-after-fundraiser/

"Ultimate Uncertainty": Nearly Half Of EV Owners Want To Go Back To Gas-Powered Cars

A brand new study from McKinsey has revealed that nearly half of Americans who own EVs want to go back to traditional gas powered vehicles.

Apparently trillions of dollars in 'green' taxpayer-backed global subsidies over the last decade are no match for good ole' fashioned common sense and free markets. Go figure.

Speaking to Automotive News, Philipp Kampshoff, leader of the consulting firm's Center for Future Mobility said: "I didn't expect that. I thought, 'Once an EV buyer, always an EV buyer.' "

The study found that over 40% of U.S. electric vehicle owners are likely to buy a combustion engine car next.

Charging concerns are a major hindrance to EV adoption, with 29% of global EV owners considering a switch, rising to 46% in the U.S. Consumers cite inadequate public charging infrastructure, high ownership costs, and impacts on long-distance travel as key issues.

These concerns align with the slow rollout of the U.S. National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program. Only eight stations are operational, and 23 states have started using funds from the $5 billion federal program as of May, according to EVAdoption.

The U.S. isn't alone in facing EV charging challenges. Only 9% of global respondents find the public-charging infrastructure adequate. This issue is set to grow, as future EV buyers will depend more on public charging, according to Kampshoff.

McKinsey's survey highlights include:

21% of global respondents never want to switch to an EV, with 33% citing charging concerns.
Range expectations have increased from 270 miles in 2022 to 291.4 miles today, outpacing current EV offerings.

McKinsey's biennial survey, released on June 12, included around 200 questions to over 30,000 consumers in 15 countries, covering over 80% of global sales. The survey shows a slight increase in willingness to consider EVs, with 38% of non-EV owners eyeing a plug-in hybrid or full electric for their next vehicle, up from 37% in 2022.

Consumer preferences for EVs, plug-ins, and combustion powertrains, coupled with evolving global regulations, complicate planning for the auto industry and its supply chain.

Kevin Laczkowski, global co-lead of McKinsey's automotive and assembly practice, concluded: "OEMs and suppliers now have to invest in multiple technologies. This is the ultimate uncertainty right now, like almost never before."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ultimate-uncertainty-nearly-half-ev-owners-have-buyers-remorse

France's High-Stakes Election Begins With Surge In Voter Turnout

Voters across mainland France have begun casting ballots Sunday in the first round of exceptional parliamentary elections that could put France’s government in the hands of nationalist parties.

As reported previously, the outcome of the two-round elections, which will wrap up on July 7, could impact European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, and how France’s nuclear arsenal and global military force are managed.

As Epoch Times notes, many French voters are frustrated about inflation and economic concerns, as well as President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, which they see as arrogant and out-of-touch with their lives. Marine Le Pen’s nationalist National Rally party has dominated all pre-election opinion polls.

A new coalition on the left, the New Popular Front, is also posing a challenge to Mr. Macron and his centrist alliance Together for the Republic.

There are 49.5 million registered voters who will choose 577 members of the National Assembly, France’s influential lower house of parliament, during the two-round voting.

Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, with an 1800 GMT finish in the bigger cities, when the first exit polls for the night and seat projections for the decisive second round a week later are expected.

The participation is already running high, underlining how France's rumbling political crisis has energized the electorate. By midday, turnout was at 25.9%, compared with 18.43% two years ago - the highest comparable turnout figures since the 1981 legislative vote, Ipsos France's research director Mathieu Gallard said.

Macron voted at a polling station in Le Touquet, a small seaside town in northern France, along with his wife, Brigitte Macron. Earlier, Ms. Le Pen cast her ballot in her party’s stronghold in northern France.

The vote takes place during the traditional first week of summer vacation in France, and absentee ballot requests were at least five times higher than in the 2022 elections.

After a blitz campaign, voting began early in France’s overseas territories, and polling stations opened in mainland France at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) Sunday. The first polling projections are expected at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), when the final polling stations close, and early official results are expected later Sunday night.

Voters who turned out in person at a Paris polling station said issues from immigration to inflation and the rising cost of living were on their minds.

“People don’t like what has been happening,” said Cynthia Justine, a 44-year-old voter. “People feel they’ve lost a lot in recent years. People are angry. I am angry.”

Mr. Macron called the early elections after his party was trounced in the European Parliament election earlier in June by the National Rally.

Pre-election polls suggested that the National Rally party is gaining support and has a chance at winning a parliamentary majority. In that scenario, Mr. Macron would be expected to name 28-year-old National Rally President Jordan Bardella as prime minister in a power-sharing system known as “cohabitation.”

While Macron has said he won’t step down before his presidential term expires in 2027, cohabitation would weaken him at home and on the world stage.

The results of the first round will give a picture of overall voter sentiment, but not necessarily of the overall makeup of the next National Assembly. Predictions are extremely difficult because of the complicated voting system, and because parties will work between the two rounds to make alliances in some constituencies or pull out of others.

The party has also questioned the right to citizenship for people born in France and wants to curtail the rights of French citizens with dual nationality.

In the restive French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, polls closed at 5 p.m. local time due to an 8 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew that authorities on the archipelago have extended until July 8.

Violence there flared on May 13, leaving nine people dead after two weeks of unrest, due to attempts by Mr. Macron’s government to amend the French Constitution and change voting lists in New Caledonia, which the Indigenous Kanaks feared would further marginalize them. They have long sought to break free from France, which first took the Pacific territory in 1853.

Voters in France’s other overseas territories from Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, French Polynesia, and those voting in offices opened by embassies and consular posts across the Americas cast their ballots on Saturday.

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In his preview of what to expected, Goldman trader Alex Stott writes that voting booths in large cities will close at 8pm and results will trickle in during the evening. Some candidates may already secure their seat after the first round if they win more than 50% of expressed votes which total at least 25% of registered voters. We only saw 5 of such cases in 2022, out of 577 seats. In the vast majority of cases, two or more candidates will advance to the second round on July 7. The rule is that the two candidates with the most votes and any candidate totalling at least 12.5% of registered voters qualify to the second round.

Polls point to a significant increase in turnout (from 46% in 2022 to around 65%) which would place the threshold for qualifying at 19% of expressed votes.

All three main political groups currently poll at-or-above this threshold—the RN at 36%, the NFP (left coalition) at 28%, and Ensemble (Macron allies) at 20%—which will likely give rise to many more three-way races.

Pollster Odoxa is predicting 120 to 170 three-way races, compared to 8 in 2022.

Aside of the results, the focus will be on voting instructions from political leaders and unsuccessful candidates. Most parties will likely support each other in a matchup with the RN, except between LFI and Ensemble/LR which will likely adopt a neutral stance. It is also likely that this support pattern extends to candidates dropping out in three-way races. This will make the RN-Ensemble/LR-LFI set-up particularly salient and difficult to read.

The deadline for dropping out is Monday, 1st July at 6pm Paris time. A simple benchmark for performance is the first round vote share, which polls tend to accurately predict.

It is likely that Ensemble would need to finish first or second in at least 80-100 constituencies to retain a chance of meeting current seat projections of 70-120.

Barring a large surprise, calling an absolute majority for the RN is likely to remain difficult even with first round results and voting instructions in hand.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/frances-high-stakes-election-begins

All Eyes On Kamala

Following Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance last Thursday, top Democrats who have been openly supporting the president's 2024 campaign are privately pushing for him to step out of the race.

According to one source cited by Axios, his family can close advisors are meeting today at Camp David to decide whether to move forward or end his campaign early.

Which brings our attention to Vice President Kamala Harris - who polls even worse than Biden in a matchup against former President Donald Trump, according to RealClearPolling.

Following last Thursday's debate, Harris quickly took to the air to defend her running mate's record and ability to perform his duties - however according to The Hill she has also been central to conversations among some Democrats over whether Biden should step aside - putting her at the top of the ticket in November.

Harris - whose most notable failure as 'border czar' would certainly come under scrutiny in a Trump vs. Harris election, must now seek to reassure Democrats about their party's chances of success.

"The next 30 days it may be up to her to make the case. People will be looking to her and testing her to see if she’s ready," one Democratic donor told the outlet.

Another Democrat who served in the Obama White House said that Harris "clearly has a purpose now to make the case for what they have accomplished," adding "This is the transitional moment where both she and Biden have their hands on the baton, but clearly she will be needed to complete the race."

Many Democrats quickly panned Biden’s showing and raised the idea that he should step aside ahead of the party’s August convention.
That left Harris to defend her running mate on the same networks where anchors and pundits were discussing the prospect of Biden leaving the ticket.
“People can debate on style points, but ultimately this election and who is the president of the United States has to be about substance,” said Harris, who conceded Biden had a “slow start.”
The vice president was not asked about, nor did she address, the elephant in the room: That she would be the likeliest candidate to replace Biden should he step aside. -The Hill

On Friday, Harris' team dismissed the notion that the Democratic ticket won't include Biden.

"Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden," said Harris spokesman Ernie Apreza in a statement.

Harris, who launched her career as former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown's side-piece, ran for President in 2019 - dropping out before the Iowa caucuses due to polling in the single digits and reports that she treats her staff like shit.

"This is my third presidential campaign and I have never seen an organization treat its staff so poorly," said former staffer Kelly Mehlenbacher in a blistering resignation letter.

Should Biden step aside, Democratic strategists have downplayed the notion of an open convention - arguing that Harris would be the logical choice, and warning of the risks of passing over a black woman already on the ticket for another candidate such as California Governor Gavin Newsom - who would be viewed as a 'white male savior' inserted into the race.

As Vice President, Harris has been an abject disaster - failing miserably as Biden's 'border czar' who presided over the influx of tens of millions of illegal migrants flooding into the United States. She's also failed at criminal justice reform, voting rights legislation, and administration's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Harris also met with Central American leaders to address the root causes of migration, which did not result in any significant policy changes or improvements in the situation.

And again, she's polling worse than Biden vs. Trump.

A February New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris trailing Trump among likely voters in a hypothetical matchup by 6 percentage points, 42 percent to 48 percent. She fared only slightly worse than Biden, who at the time trailed Trump in that survey by 4 percentage points, 44 percent to 48 percent.
The same poll found 38 percent of likely voters had a favorable view of Harris, compared to 54 percent who had an unfavorable view of her. -The Hill

In short, Democrats are in a DEI trap of their own design, unburdened by a competent candidate.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/all-eyes-kamala

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Sunday, June 30, 2024

‘Like a Band-Aid on a bullet wound,’ Hamptons donors divided on Biden after fundraiser

"Ultimate Uncertainty": Nearly Half Of EV Owners Want To Go Back To Gas-Powered Cars

France's High-Stakes Election Begins With Surge In Voter Turnout

All Eyes On Kamala