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Thursday, August 1, 2024

Russia frees Whelan, Gershkovich in big prisoner swap

 Imprisoned American journalist Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan were freed from their Russian prison cells Thursday as part of the largest multi-country prisoner swap since the Cold War.

The Americans were among 26 prisoners from the US, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Russia, and Belarus freed as part of the prisoner exchange overseen by Turkish intelligence, Turkey’s presidency said.

Wall Street Journal reporter Gershkovich spent nearly 500 days in Moscow’s notorious Lefortovo Prison alongside serial killers and other political prisoners.

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been held alongside serial killers and political prisoners.AFP via Getty Images
A Russian Tupolev Tu-204-300 aircraft lands at Ankara Esenboga Airport in Ankara, as Turkish authorities announced that 26 prisoners have been exchanged between Russia and the West.AFP via Getty Images
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He and Whelan — who was arrested on a phony spying charge in 2018 — were among those freed in the extraordinary deal, the Turkish presidency confirmed.

German mercenary Rico Krieger, who was held in Belarus, and Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin were also let go, the Turkish officials confirmed.

Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva and Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr., a prominent critic of the Kremlin, are also speculated to be part of the deal, according to “Good Morning America.”

Gershkovich, was reporting trip for the Wall Street Journal in Yekaterinburg when he was arrested and accused of spying last year.AP

The Kremlin confirmed the deal, saying it hoped the freed prisoners – described as “enemies” – would steer clear, the state-run TASS news agency reported.

“I believe that all our enemies should stay there (abroad), and all those who are not our enemies should return. That’s my point of view,” spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

The deal involving prisoners from the US, Russia, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway and Belarus is the largest multi-country prisoner swap since the Cold War.

Ten prisoners, including two minors, were transferred to Russia, while 13 were moved to Germany and three to the United States as part of the deal, Turkish officials said.

The White House initially declined to comment when asked about a possible exchange, which was then confirmed by Turkey, where it took place.

Gershkovich, 32, was arrested and accused of spying on March 29, 2023, while on a reporting trip for the Wall Street Journal in Yekaterinburg.

He was convicted of espionage earlier this month and sentenced to 16 years behind bars following a closed-doors trial that was widely condemned by international leadership.

Paul Whelan, 54, was visiting Russia for a friend’s wedding when he was arrested for espionage in 2018. He was sentenced to 16 years in prison in 2020.

Speculation about a massive US-Russia prisoner swap picked up in the beginning of the week, when several prominent prisoners – including Whelan and Kara-Murza – were moved from their cells to unknown locations.

Four Russians imprisoned in the US – Alexander Vinnik, Maxim Marchenko, Vadim Konoshechenko, and Vladislav Klushin – also disappeared from the database operated by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, the RIA state news agency claimed.

Three Russians serving federal prison sentences were transferred to US Marshals in preparation for the eventual trade, law enforcement sources confirmed to CNN Thursday.

A lawyer for Vinnik, a cybercrime kingpin who has been held in the US since 2022, declined to provide information about their client’s location “until the exchange takes place.”

Vadim Krasikov, identified by German officials as a high-ranking member of the FSB intelligence agency, was also supposedly en route to Ankara on Thursday, the German outlet Der Spiegel reported.

A plane believed to be carrying Evan Gerskovich sits at Ankara airport in Turkey.Reuters
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called Gershkovich’s detention “part of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war propaganda.”AP

Krasikov was serving a life sentence for the 2019 murder of a Kremlin dissident in Berlin.

He was previously favored for a rumored exchange for Alexei Navalny, who died in prison in Western Siberia in February.

The last major exchange with Russia happened in December 2022, when American women’s basketball star Brittney Griner was released in return for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.

Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years in prison during a sham trial in July. He had been detained for 16 months.REUTERS

Griner had spent just under a year in Russian prison for having trace amounts of cannabis oil in her bags as she traveled through the country.

Bout — known as the “Merchant of Death” — had served 10 years behind bars after being convicted of conspiring to kill Americans and aiding a terrorist entity.

https://nypost.com/2024/08/01/world-news/russia-releasing-american-journalist-evan-gershkovich-in-prisoner-swap-after-16-months-behind-bars-reports/

'Shoplifters point to high inflation, the economy as top reasons for stealing'

 High inflation has pushed up the cost of just about everything, including groceries, clothing and cars.

It may also have led to a spike in shoplifting, according to a new survey published by LendingTree.

Nearly one-quarter of Americans – about 23% – admitted to stealing from stores within the past year, according to the survey, which polled 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 78. 

Of those who confessed to shoplifting, about 90% blamed it on high inflation and the state of the economy. More than one-third said they rely on stealing because "prices have become otherwise unaffordable," while 30% said it helps make ends meet. Another 27% said they stole something in order to "save a few bucks."

"Lots of people are struggling in the face of still-rising prices, and they’re going to somewhat desperate measures to help them get by," said Matt Schulz, LendingTree chief credit analyst. "With inflation stubbornly sticking around, that’s not likely to change soon."

Target, Home Depot and Walmart are among the major retailers that have sounded the alarm over a spike in theft since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Shoplifting accounted for more than $112 billion in losses in 2022 in what the industry calls "shrink" – a measurement of lost inventory. That marks a sharp increase from the $93.9 billion in losses recorded in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation.

TickerSecurityLastChangeChange %
TGTTARGET CORP.146.75-3.66-2.43%
WMTWALMART INC.69.22+0.59+0.86%
HDTHE HOME DEPOT INC.360.88-7.25-1.97%


"Retailers are seeing unprecedented levels of theft coupled with rampant crime in their stores, and the situation is only becoming more dire," David Johnston, NRF vice president for asset protection and retail operations, said at the time.

The rise in shoplifting comes as consumers experience a rise in financial insecurity, which is up 6.7% from 2022. In 2024, about 36.4% of households reported difficulties paying for typical expenses like food, housing and medicine.

While inflation has fallen considerably from a peak of 9.1% notched during June 2022, it remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. On top of that, prices are up a stunning 19.4% since January 2021, before the inflation crisis began.

High inflation has created severe financial pressures for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Grocery prices are up more than 21% from the start of 2021, while shelter costs are up 18.37%, according to FOX Business calculations. Energy prices, meanwhile, are up 38.4%.

Price hikes are particularly devastating for lower-income Americans because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paycheck on necessities and therefore have less flexibility to save money.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/shoplifters-point-high-inflation-economy-top-reasons-stealing

Stock of former Weight Watchers sinks below $1 after a surprise loss

 Revenue drops below expectations and full-year outlook was cut

Shares of WW International Inc., formerly known as Weight Watchers, dropped further into record-low territory, after the weight management company reported disappointing second-quarter results and lowered its full-year outlook.

The company also announced a restructuring plan that will result in "the elimination of certain positions and the termination of employment for certain employees worldwide." The company expects to book restructuring charges of $12 million to $15 million in the second half of the year.

"With a rapidly changing landscape, we are taking decisive actions to navigate through this environment and completely reimagining how we operate," said Chief Executive Sima Sistani. "We are executing a significant streamlining of our operational structure, to focus and execute against our strategic pillars to expand care, expand access, and expand payment options for our members."

The stock (WW) sank 9.4% in premarket trading, which put it on track to open below the $1 mark. The stock had closed Wednesday at a record low of $1.07, to break the previous record of $1.12 hit on July 10.

The company reported income for the quarter to June 29 of $23.3 million, or 29 cents a share, or less than half the net income of $50.8 million, or 65 cents a share, in the same period a year ago.

The latest results include a nonrecurring net positive impact of 42 cents a share from a tax event and restructuring charges. Subtracting that impact would put adjusted per-share losses at 13 cents, which compares with the FactSet consensus was for earnings per share of 4 cents.

Revenue fell 10.9% to $202.1 million, below the FactSet consensus of $208.5 million, as subscription revenue declined 5.7% to $200 million. That marked the 12th revenue miss in the past 14 quarters, according to FactSet data.

Subscribers declined 6.1% and total paid weeks were down 4.9%.

For 2024, the company lowered its revenue outlook to be at least $770 million from $830 million to $860 million.

The outlook for operating losses was increased "to be at most" $180.7 million, from previous guidance for operating losses of $163.7 million to $153.7 million.

The stock has plummeted 87.8% year to date through Wednesday, while the S&P 500 has advanced 15.8%.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240801313/stock-of-former-weight-watchers-sinks-below-1-after-a-surprise-loss

Moderna Shares Tumble 12% After Full-Year Sales Guidance Slashed

 Shares of Moderna tumbled in premarket trading in New York after the biotech slashed its full-year sales guidance. The company cited lower sales in Europe, potential revenue deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an "increasingly competitive environment" for respiratory vaccines in the US.  

Moderna posted second-quarter earnings that were narrower-than-expected losses and revenue that exceeded the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg. It also posted a loss of $1.28 billion, or $3.33 per share, for the quarter, compared to a net loss of $1.38 billion, or $3.62 per share for the same period one year ago. 

Snapshot of second quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

  • Loss per share $3.33

  • Revenue $241 million, -30% y/y, estimate $131 million

  • Covid-19 vaccine revenue $184 million, estimate $106 million

  • Total operating expenses $1.60 billion, -27% y/y, estimate $1.63 billion

  • Cost of goods sold $115 million, -84% y/y, estimate $72.2 million

  • R&D expenses $1.22 billion, estimate $1.1 billion

  • SG&A expense $268 million, -19% y/y, estimate $307.7 million

Moderna noted that revenue slumps were primarily due to a transition of the seasonal Covid vaccine market. This is where Covid vaccine demand is lower in spring and generally rises in the fall and winter periods. However, CEO Stephane Bancel said that the demand for vaccines was a "good spring season" for the elderly population in the US.

The focus on earnings was Moderna's downshift in the full-year product sales guidance from $4 billion to $3 billion to $3.5 billion. 

"The update in product sales is driven by three primary factors: very low EU sales in 2024, potential revenue deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an increasingly competitive environment for respiratory vaccines in the US," the company said.

CEO Bancel added, "During the second quarter, we marked the approval of our second mRNA product and signicantly lowered our operating costs. We remain focused on execution for the 2024-25 COVID season and the launch of our RSV vaccine in the US." 

Shares of Moderna plunged as much as 12% in premarket trading. 

Goldman anylsts have been keeping an eye on Modern's selloff... 

About a month ago, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) granted Moderna $176 million to develop bird flu vaccines. Now, Moderna is banking on a spike in human-to-human bird flu cases. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/moderna-shares-tumble-12-after-full-year-sales-guidance-slashed

"Near Stalling Of Production" - US Manufacturing Surveys Collapsed In July

 The start of the third quarter saw a deterioration in business conditions at US manufacturers as new orders declined for the first time in three months, according to S&P Global.

This makes sense as we have seen 'hard' US macro data serially disappoint for three months.

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 in July, dropping into contraction for the first time since Dec 2023.

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to 46.8 (48.8 exp) - weakest since Nov 2023 (near post-COVID lockdown lows)


Rubbing some salt in the wounds was the fact that Prices Paid rose while New Orders tumbled and Employment puked (to the lowest since COVID lockdowns)...

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

The manufacturing recovery moved into reverse in July, though the gloomier growth picture was accompanied by a marked cooling of inflation in the goods-producing sector.

Business conditions worsened in July as the first fall in new orders since April caused a near-stalling of production. Purchasing activity is falling and hiring has slowed amid concerns over weaker-than-anticipated sales."

But William son has an excuse for this downturn...

Many firms are expecting the weakness to be temporary, linked to paused spending and investment ahead of the Presidential Election. However, firms’ expectations for output in one year’s time remain subdued by historical standards, reflecting additional concerns over the impact of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. While orders for investment goods such as plant and machinery fell especially sharply in July, underscoring the recent pull-back in capital spending, producers of consumer goods also reported a modest fall in demand.

There was better news on the inflation front. Input cost inflation cooled for a second month after having risen to a 13-month high in May. This welcome lowering of cost pressures helped take further heat out of selling price inflation, which moderated sharply in July to the lowest for a year to signal only a marginal increase in prices during the month. This near-abeyance of producer price inflation should feed through to lower consumer price inflation in the coming months.”

The question is - if the Democrats win, will this downturn accelerate?

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/near-stalling-production-us-manufacturing-surveys-collapsed-july