Search This Blog

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Nate Silver says FiveThirtyEight suspended its forecasts to help Kamala Harris

 Election savant Nate Silver blasted FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential forecasts — offering up a “theory” that the website he founded is waiting for Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling numbers to improve.

Silver, the statistician and data journalist who rose to prominence in 2008 after accurately predicting the results of the presidential election, called out the ABC-owned website Monday for not publishing new polling since Harris replaced President Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

A note on the FiveThirtyEight website says: “As of July 21 at 2 p.m. Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president.

“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.”

Data journalist Nate Silver criticized FiveThirtyEight, the polling and statistics website he founded.ABC
00:00
04:23
FiveThirtyEight said it suspended its forecast after President Biden dropped out of the presidential race.fivethirtyeight.com

An X user posted a screenshot of the FiveThirtyEight disclaimer and wrote: “538’s forecast is really still not up yet? What are they waiting for?”

Silver wrote in response: “My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they’re waiting until she’s doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that.”

When asked to clarify, Silver wrote that his statement was a “theory” and “not an accusation.”

“It’s not based on any inside info,” he wrote in a subsequent post, which was first reported by the news site Mediaite.

The Post has sought comment from FiveThirtyEight.

Harris locked up the nomination in a virtual roll call Monday and named progressive Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate Tuesday.

Silver theorized that FiveThirtyEight was waiting for Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling numbers to improve before relaunching its forecast.REUTERS

Silver’s own poll in June had Republican nominee Donald Trump easily defeating Biden before the president exited the race following his debate debacle.

His most recent forecast on Monday gave Harris a slim lead over the former president.

It is the first time since he launched the model that Harris jumped ahead of Trump, who polls showed was handily defeating Biden in key swing states.

Silver left FiveThirtyEight last summer after ABC News decided not to renew his contract.

At the time, parent company Disney had ordered layoffs across the television news division, which swept up Silver and other FiveThirtyEight personnel.

Silver has since moved on to create a Substack newsletter that includes prediction models analyzing the presidential race.

https://nypost.com/2024/08/06/media/nate-silver-says-fivethirtyeight-suspended-forecasts-to-help-kamala-harris/

Parents’ rights are on the ballot as Harris, Walz side with teachers unions

 You’ve seen “White Women for Kamala” and “White Dudes for Harris” — but don’t expect a booster group called “Parents for Kamala and Tim.”

Kamala Harris is squarely opposed to parents’ right to control what young children are taught about gender, sex and sexuality in school.

And on Tuesday, she chose as her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz,  a former schoolteacher and teachers union member who shares her extreme anti-parent views.

Harris and Walz are out of line with what most Americans think — and not just Republicans.

A majority of Hispanic Democrats and black Democrats also want to keep gender ideology out of elementary school classrooms, according to Pew Research and YouGov polls.

Last month, Harris promised the American Federation of Teachers’ national convention that as president she’d oppose the wave of state laws that bar preschool and elementary school teachers from indoctrinating children about sexual orientation and gender choices.

She’s also vociferously fought “book ban” laws, suggesting she’s OK with giving young children reading material that encourages them to question their own gender identity.

“We want to ban assault weapons. They want to ban books,” she railed to AFT members.

At issue are books for the youngest readers — books like “I Am Jazz” that tell little girls they can be boys, and little boys they can be girls. 

Jazz “had a girl’s brain in a boy’s body,” the picture book aimed at 4- to 8-year-olds reads. ”She was transgender.”

Parental rights and the innocence of young children are at stake in this election, warns Terry Schilling of the American Principles Project, which has launched an $18 million anti-Harris ad campaign across seven swing states. 

Schilling calls Harris “an extremist.”

All people, regardless of their sexual orientation, deserve respect.

But parents need the final say on what their children are taught.

Harris has a history of bashing lawmakers who side with parents. At a June 23, 2023 Pride Rally, she called them “extremists.”

Who’s extreme here?

The AFT has attacked a Henrico County, Va., parent for questioning the appropriateness of “I’m a Gay Wizard,” a book for middle schoolers that depicts two boy characters having oral sex.

On June 18, Harris posted a picture of herself on social media hugging a tall man in drag, dressed in a metallic bikini and stilettos, with the message, “Our LGBTQ+ children should not fear who they are.” 

Of course they shouldn’t. All children deserve respect.

But this battle isn’t about inclusion — inclusion is a good thing. It’s about indoctrination. 

An AFT report published in 2023 asserts, “Books that normalize sexual identity confusion can help young people realize that they are not alone in their struggle.”

The report goes on to say that “the lack of candid conversations in families” about “nonheterosexual identity development” must be offset by teachers in the classroom.

Sorry, most parents don’t want the AFT — or local school authorities — replacing the family in this way. Kamala Harris apparently does.

So does her new running mate.

Last year, Minnesota parents organized to stop “Call Me Max,” a book about a transgender boy, being read aloud in kindergarten, saying that the lesson planted seeds of doubt about sexual identity in children too young to understand the concept. 

Several states have banned the book from classrooms.

In response, Walz on May 17 signed a state law barring parental groups from removing books or materials from school libraries based on content, calling the efforts “regressive.”

The bill mimicked California legislation that leaves educators, not families, in control of such decisions.

In contrast, Republicans and former President Donald Trump have vowed to cut federal funding for any school or program that tries to instill gender ideology and other “inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content into our children.”

So the choice in November is between California values — extremely liberal Kamala Harris values — or the values your family chooses.  

Meanwhile, the real emergency in education is being ignored: Barely a third of fourth graders nationally are proficient in reading, and fewer than a third are proficient in math.

Blame the AFT and its sister union, the National Education Association. 

The AFT website is chock full of advocacy about immigration rights, transgender rights, firearm bans and other political issues.

You’ll have to look hard to find a word about pedagogy — how to teach reading and math effectively.

After Walz’s selection Tuesday, both the AFT and the NEA rushed to applaud the pick.

But moms and dads who care about their children’s innocence and their future will cast their votes against AFT toady Harris and her anti-parent running mate in November.

Betsy McCaughey is a former lieutenant governor of New York.

https://nypost.com/2024/08/06/opinion/kamala-harris-tim-walz-side-with-teachers-unions-over-parents/