Several generic producers are already on the case. Analysts estimate that the market for weight-loss drugs is worth between $80 and $140 billion a year, or even more, given that outlets for these treatments are still in their infancy.

This morning, the Financial Times reported that Hikma is in talks with partners to develop a generic version of Ozempic and Wegovy. Hikma was founded in Jordan but is based in London and is a FTSE 100 company. The company is the second largest drug retailer in the Middle East and North Africa in terms of sales, behind Sanofi.

Hikma is no newcomer to the field of weight-loss drugs. Last December, the company launched liraglutide in the US, a generic version of an earlier drug that Novo Nordisk markets under the names Victoza (diabetes) and Saxenda (weight loss). However, liraglutide is less effective than semaglutide. The latter has a weight-loss effect 2 to 3 times greater, and requires less frequent injections (daily for liraglutide, weekly for semaglutide).

Other players are also beginning to position themselves. Switzerland's Sandoz, for example, is aiming to launch a generic of semaglutide in Canada and Brazil by 2026.

The arrival of weight-loss drugs in generic form should help bring prices down. Analysts at AlphaValue estimate that these treatments could be between 50% and 80% cheaper than the originals. According to the FDA, the difference could be as much as 80% to 85%. In Europe and the United States, several healthcare systems and health insurance companies are attempting to limit access to these non-generic treatments. In the United States, the list price for a month's supply of Wegovy exceeds $1,300.

It's not hard to imagine that, as patents expire, demand will continue to rise, given the worldwide prevalence of obesity. Novo Nordisk believes that patent expiry "is a natural part of the life cycle of pharmaceutical products" and that the company "explores new molecules, combinations and formulations of treatments, both organically and through external opportunities". Its two flagship treatments are protected by patents in Europe and the USA until 2031-2032.

Hard blow for CagriSema

CagriSema's share price failed to react to this news in early trading on the Copenhagen stock exchange this morning. Analysts have been anticipating the end of patents on the Danish company's blockbusters for many months now. Novo Nordisk, on the other hand, fell sharply after the announcement of the results of the REDEFINE 2 study, a Phase 3 trial designed to assess the efficacy of weekly administration of CagriSema (a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide) on weight loss in patients with type 2 diabetes. After 68 weeks, patients lost 15.7% of their body weight, compared with 3.1% with placebo. Analysts were hoping for better. Novo Nordisk had already tumbled in December following the results of a study involving CagriSema. The Redefine 1 study involved patients who did not have type 2 diabetes. REDEFINE 2 is expected to "further weaken confidence in the commercial profile" of CagriSema, says research firm Jefferies.

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