NeuroPace expects minimal tariff impact, maintains guidance

 NeuroPace, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE), a medical device company specializing in epilepsy treatment trading at $10.67 per share, announced today that it anticipates minimal impact from tariffs on its operations and financial results for fiscal year 2025. Despite experiencing a significant 15% decline over the past week, the company, which manufactures the majority of its devices within the United States, has limited its supply chain activities outside the U.S. for its RNS System, a treatment for epilepsy.

The company also expects no material effect on the gross margin for DIXI Medical SEEG products, which are used for stereoelectroencephalography, a diagnostic procedure for epilepsy. With an impressive gross profit margin of 74% in the last twelve months and revenue growth of 22%, this outlook supports the company’s reiterated gross margin guidance for the year. 

NeuroPace previously disclosed the termination of its SEEG distribution agreement with DIXI Medical, effective October 1, 2025, with a six-month wind-down period extending into the first quarter of 2026. Despite this change, the company anticipates maintaining its financial performance.

In addition, NeuroPace will report its first quarter financial results for 2025 on May 13, 2025, after the market closes. With four analysts recently revising earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, investors are closely watching this announcement. A conference call hosted by the company’s management is scheduled to follow the release of the financial results, providing further insights into the company’s performance and outlook. 

The company’s RNS System is touted as the first and only brain-responsive platform available commercially for the treatment of seizures at their source. With a market capitalization of $350 million and projected revenue growth of 18% for fiscal year 2025, NeuroPace aims to establish the RNS System as the standard of care for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy, potentially expanding its application to other brain disorders.

Investors and interested parties can access the conference call via a live and archived webcast, or by dialing in with the provided details. The archived webcast will be available for replay on the company’s investor relations website for at least 90 days following the event.

https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/neuropace-expects-minimal-tariff-impact-maintains-guidance-93CH-3984387

Eli Lilly's Mounjaro launches in India

 The India launch of Eli Lilly's popular weight-loss drug Mounjaro has triggered a huge wave of patient enquiries about its availability, with some Indian doctors fielding hundreds of calls about the medicine, according to a Reuters survey.

The survey of 18 doctors, patients and weight-loss clinic operators follows the U.S. drugmaker's market entry ahead of Danish obesity drug rival Novo Nordisk into a nation expected to have the second-largest population of overweight or obese people by 2050.

"Since the launch of Mounjaro, we have seen a remarkable increase in customer interest," said Suryansh Kumar, founder of Delhi-based weight management services provider Elevate Now.

Elevate Now fielded more than 200 calls in just a week about Mounjaro, he said in a post on social media.

Mounjaro's launch has brought cheer to Indian patients who had been relying on friends, family or suppliers abroad to get hold of these drugs.

Bengaluru resident Vikram, a 57-year-old medical professional who did not want his surname published to avoid weight stigma, had obtained the drug from Dubai over the past eight months. He has shed over 23% of his body weight.

"It will be a lot more convenient to get it now," he said.

Local availability also makes life easier for Indian patients who relied on the black market for weight-loss drugs.

Muffazal Lakdawala, director of surgery at Sir H.N. Reliance Foundation Hospital, said he expects patients who make the switch to Lilly's authorized drug to pay less than half the black market price.

He also expects Lilly to have an early entry advantage over Novo's Wegovy, which has the same active ingredient as its diabetes medicine Ozempic that is often used off-label for weight loss.

"A lot of our patients who used to take Ozempic have now switched over to taking Mounjaro because of availability in India," Lakdawala told Reuters.

'CREATING RIPPLES'

Novo is looking to bring forward its planned India launch of Wegovy to better compete with Lilly, two sources told Reuters earlier this month.

India's generic drugmakers are also racing to make cheaper versions of Wegovy in a bid to grab a share of the burgeoning weight-loss market, which Nuvama analysts estimate will reach $175 billion a year globally by 2035.

Novo may also have to price Wegovy more competitively in India after some industry watchers, such as market research firm Pharmarack, said Mounjaro's launch was "creating ripples" in the Asian nation with its pricing.

Mounjaro, a once-weekly injection approved by India's drug regulator, is priced at 4,375 rupees ($50.86) for a 5 milligram vial and 3,500 rupees for a 2.5 mg vial, its lowest doses, the company told Reuters. Its highest dose is 15 mg.

A patient in India may have to spend about $200 a month when taking a weekly dose of 5 mg, subject to doctor's prescription.

Mounjaro carries a list price of $1,079.77 a month in the U.S., although the amount patients pay largely depends on their insurance plan. Zepbound, which has the same active ingredient, tirzepatide, is the brand name for the U.S. weight loss version, with Mounjaro sold for diabetes there.

Lilly offers 5 mg, 7.5 mg and 10 mg vials of Zepbound for $499 and higher for a month's supply if customers pay cash without any third-party involvement.

Bengaluru-based Manipal Hospitals has seen over a 20% increase in patient queries on weight-loss medication availability, said Abhijit Bhograj, a consultant endocrinologist.

The heightened interest has some doctors urging patients to seek more information before clamoring for the drug.

"There needs to be wider awareness on usage," said Hyderabad-based bariatric surgeon Amar Vennapusa, who received over 100 calls in two days after announcing Mounjaro availability.

Keerthi Reddy, 32, who underwent bariatric surgery a few years back, took her first Mounjaro shot this week at Vennapusa's clinic.

"My friends and family living abroad have already tried it and saw good results," Reddy told Reuters. "I've been waiting for it to be available in India."

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eli-lillys-mounjaro-launch-india-194918761.html

The Art of the Deal

 By Benjamin Picton, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Art of the Deal

Stocks had looked poised for a face-tearing rally today as another Trump pivot on China tariffs over the weekend threatened to blast out shorts. Trump announced that tariffs on computers and electronics would be set at 20% - rather than the full-freight-rate of 145% - placating big tech CEO’s and US consumers. However, late on Sunday President Trump walked back the concession by announcing via Truth Social that electronics are “just moving to a different tariff ‘bucket’” and that the whole electronics supply chain will be subject to “national security tariff investigations”. So, it looks like the reprieve is only temporary.

Is this more Art of the Deal? Is it the Madman Theory in action? Or is it just wild caprice? Theories vary widely from “it’s all part of the plan” to “there is no plan, and this guy has no idea what he is doing.” Much of this is in the eye of the beholder, as is the state of the underlying US economy. On Friday the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 and the ‘expectations’ sub-index slipped below 50. 1-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 5% to 6.7%, but Democrats and Independents seem to think that inflation will be in the double digits, whereas Republicans are more sanguine.

As the rest of us try to second-guess what is really going on in the White House, Trump surrogates Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick are now playing ‘good cop, bad cop’ with world leaders. Lutnick has been going fire and brimstone to accuse others of cheating on trade and assure us that tariffs are coming, and then Bessent presents as the cool voice of reason willing to cut deals with nations that are willing to play ball with US economic and foreign policy goals.

Bessent has previously said that he expected the cost of tariffs to be “eaten” by the exporting countries, partially through lower prices and partially through a stronger Dollar. The stronger Dollar part of that equation appears to have gone out the window for now as the DXY index teeters on the 100 level, but isn’t overvaluation of the Dollar due to its reserve currency status one of the main bugbears of Trump, Lutnick and Navarro? Perhaps they’re trying to have their cake and eat it too by weakening the Dollar enough to improve US trade competitiveness, but not so much as to threaten its status as the reserve currency. Bessent recently told Tucker Carlson that the Trump Administration still has a strong Dollar policy “over the long term.”

Despite the falling Dollar, increasing fears of global recession and oodles of fresh supply from OPEC+ have seen crude oil prices decline materially, but gold and the Euro have been major beneficiaries as mobile international capital looks for a safe place to hide. EURUSD closed at 1.1355 on Friday and Gold made a new high close of $3,238/oz. Both are down a little in early trade this morning as the pivot to risk-on cuts haven demand. 

A rising Euro will add to the woes of European industry as it faces tariff and defence spending pressure from the USA, the loss of Russian energy supplies and China’s switch from customer to competitor. Nevertheless, 10-year Bund yields have fallen almost 17bps over the course of April while the 10-year US Treasury yield has soared by 29bps over the same timeframe.  

Despite Europe’s Byzantine political system and ongoing competitiveness problems, it appears that some traders at least are interpreting sclerosis as stability and marking Europe up for the fiscal headroom enjoyed by the likes of Germany and the Netherlands. Even perennial laggard Italy is suddenly looking better, with S&P last week upgrading its credit rating to BBB+ citing improvement in public finances. 

Meanwhile, as noted in this Daily last week, Europe is exploring the replacement of tariffs on Chinese EVs with minimum prices, and Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez has recently been in Beijing for talks with China to expand economic ties. This seems a curious move given that China has declared a “partnership without limits” with Russia - who are currently waging a war of aggression on the EU’s Eastern flank – and Chinese autos present an existential threat to European industry that is lagging in the innovation race and struggling for cost competitiveness.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had earlier warned Europe against cozying up to China by saying that it would be “cutting your own throat” to do so, but at least some European officials seem to think they can leverage the Americans by re-risking the China relationship to demonstrate that Europe “has options”. European policy makers have delayed the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on US steel for 90 days to give negotiations with the Trump Administration the best chance of succeeding, but if Europe continues to pursue closer trade integration with China right up to the 90-day deadline it seems likely that the USA will take a hard line. 

To illustrate one risk: After the US Supreme Court last week issued an administrative order allowing the White House to proceed with firing two Democratic appointees to independent labor boards, there has been speculation that the Court could soon make a determination that would allow for President Trump to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If those powers were granted, and a Trump-loyalist installed as Fed Chair, European policy makers would have to be concerned about the potential withdrawal of Dollar swaplines being used for negotiating leverage.

While Europe attempts to walk both sides of the street on the US/China conflict, the UK seems to be taking a leaf out of the MAGA playbook with respect to domestic industry. Prime Minister Starmer convened an extraordinary session of parliament over the weekend to pass emergency legislation to prevent the closure of the Scunthorpe steelworks – Britain’s last remaining integrated steel mill. British Steel’s Chinese owners, Jingye, had reportedly refused earlier offers of government support to keep the plant running. Some commentators have insinuated that Jingye might have allowed the plant to fail on purpose, while UK Business Secretary Jonathon Reynolds suggested that “it might not be sabotage, it might be neglect.” A vote on full nationalization of the works is expected within weeks, but for now British Steel is scrambling to secure supplies of the raw materials needed to continue British steelmaking.

While financial markets will undoubtedly remain focused on tariffs and yields this week, developments in the Middle East may have the potential to blow the price action off course. US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff recently held talks in Oman regarding Iran’s nuclear program with the Iranian Foreign Minister, while US Energy Secretary Chris Wright held talks in Riyadh regarding US cooperation on the development of a civilian nuclear industry in Saudi Arabia. A second round of discussions between the US and Iran has been scheduled for Saturday. 

President Trump has previously said that failure to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program could lead to strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in partnership with Israel, so those talks on Saturday will be a big deal. The United States recently moved at least six B-2 stealth bombers (almost 1/3rd of the active fleet) to the Indian Ocean base of Diego Garcia, within striking distance of Iranian nuclear and oil facilities. This could also be interpreted as a message to China, who has just placed export controls on rare earth minerals and who relies on Iranian oil for its energy needs: “If you hit our supply chains we can hit yours too”. 

The situation is precarious, but could a compromise be hammered out that is acceptable to Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia, while also giving China pause for thought on trade war escalation? That would really be the Art of the Deal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/art-deal

Social Security Administration launches anti-fraud measures

 The Social Security Administration (SSA) implemented anti-fraud tools to protect customers who file claims over the phone following Elon Musk’s warning that fraudsters were targeting the agency’s call-in lines to steal benefits.

The agency launched measures that will "identify suspicious activity in telephone claims by analyzing patterns and anomalies within a person’s account," effective immediately, according to the SSA. 

The agency said if the technology detects irregularities, the individual will be required "to complete in-person identity proofing to continue processing their claim." 

The agency will still conduct identity verification for all in-person claims, too.

Social Security acting Commissioner Leland Dudek said the move is a way to modernize how the agency serves the public, "enhancing both security and accessibility." 

"These updates improve our ability to detect and prevent fraud while providing more flexible options for people to access their benefits," Dudek said. 

According to the SSA, this change will help it "maintain the security of its services while continuing to expand access for customers who may be unable to file online or visit an office in person." 

Last month, while appearing on Fox News' "Special Report with Bret Baier," Musk and other members of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said a significant proportion of the daily calls that Social Security fields are from people trying to change legitimate recipients' direct deposit destinations in an effort to steal their benefits.

"At Social Security, one of the first things that we learned is that they get phone calls every day of people trying to change direct deposit information," said Aram Moghaddassi, a DOGE engineer. "So when you want to change your bank account, you can call Social Security. We learned 40% of the calls that they get are from fraudsters."

Baier specifically asked Musk about how some are concerned that DOGE's efforts could inadvertently lead to legitimate Social Security recipients missing out on their benefit payments. However, Musk responded saying the group's efforts will help ensure beneficiaries get the payments they deserve.

"In fact, what we're doing will help their benefits. Legitimate people, as a result of the work of DOGE, will receive more Social Security, not less," Musk said. "I want to emphasize that: as a result of the work of DOGE, legitimate recipients of Social Security will receive more money, not less money."

The SSA went through a two-week transition last month "to stronger identity proofing procedures for both benefit claims and direct deposit changes." As part of the changes, the agency began enforcing online digital identity proofing and in-person identity proofing. 

For instance, individuals who do not or cannot use the agency’s online my Social Security services, can start their claim for benefits on the telephone. However, the claim cannot be completed until the individual’s identity is verified in person.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/social-security-administration-launches-anti-fraud-measures

Iranian foreign minister to visit Moscow ahead of second Iran-U.S. meeting

 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Russia this week ahead of a planned second round of talks between Tehran and Washington aimed at resolving Iran's decades-long nuclear stand-off with the West.

Araqchi and U.S. President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held talks in Oman on Saturday, during which Omani envoy Badr al-Busaidi shuttled between the two delegations sitting in different rooms at his palace in Muscat.

Both sides described the talks in Oman as "positive", although a senior Iranian official told Reuters the meeting "was only aimed at setting the terms of possible future negotiations".

Italian news agency ANSA reported that Italy had agreed to host the talks' second round, and Iraq's state news agency said Araqchi told his Iraqi counterpart that talks would be held "soon" in the Italian capital under Omani mediation.

Tehran has approached the talks warily, doubting the likelihood of an agreement and suspicious of Trump, who has threatened to bomb Iran if there is no deal.

Washington aims to halt Tehran's sensitive uranium enrichment work - regarded by the United States, Israel and European powers as a path to nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is solely for civilian energy production.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Araqchi will "discuss the latest developments related to the Muscat talks" with Russian officials.

Moscow, a party to Iran's 2015 nuclear pact, has supported Tehran's right to have a civilian nuclear programme.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on vital state matters, distrusts the United States, and Trump in particular.

But Khamenei has been forced to engage with Washington in search of a nuclear deal due to fears that public anger at home over economic hardship could erupt into mass protests and endanger the existence of the clerical establishment, four Iranian officials told Reuters in March.

Tehran's concerns were exacerbated by Trump's speedy revival of his "maximum pressure" campaign when he returned to the White House in January.

During his first term, Trump ditched Tehran's 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Since 2019, Iran has far surpassed the 2015 deal's limits on uranium enrichment, producing stocks at a high level of fissile purity, well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy programme and close to that required for nuclear warheads.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised the alarm regarding Iran's growing stock of 60% enriched uranium, and reported no real progress on resolving long-running issues, including the unexplained presence of uranium traces at undeclared sites.

IAEA head Rafael Grossi will visit Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian media reported, in an attempt to narrow gaps between Tehran and the agency over unresolved issues.

"Continued engagement and cooperation with the agency is essential at a time when diplomatic solutions are urgently needed," Grossi said on X on Monday.

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/iranian-foreign-minister-to-visit-moscow-ahead-of-second-iran-u-s-meeting/ar-AA1CU6sj

China, Vietnam sign deals as Xi visits Hanoi amid US tariff tensions

 On Monday, China’s President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for closer trade and supply chain ties with Vietnam, in light of disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs, during his attendance at the signing of numerous cooperation agreements between the two Communist-run nations in Hanoi.

The visit, planned for weeks and part of a wider trip in Southeast Asia, comes as Beijing faces 145% U.S. duties, while Vietnam is negotiating a reduction of threatened U.S. tariffs of 46% that would otherwise apply in July after a global moratorium expires, News.Az reports citing Reuters.

 

"The two sides should strengthen cooperation in production and supply chains," Xi said in an article in Nhandan, the newspaper of Vietnam's Communist Party, posted ahead of his arrival on Monday. He also urged more trade and stronger ties with Hanoi on artificial intelligence and the green economy.

 

After he met Vietnam's top leader To Lam, the two countries signed dozens of cooperation agreements, including deals on enhancing supply chains and on cooperation over railways, footage of the documents reviewed by Reuters showed.

 

Chinese and Vietnamese state media later on Monday reported that 45 agreements were signed.

 

The content of the agreements was not disclosed and it was unclear whether they involved any financial or binding commitments.

 

Under pressure from Washington, Vietnam is tightening controls on some trade with China to make sure goods exported to the United States with a "Made in Vietnam" label have sufficient added value in the country to justify that.

 

"There are no winners in trade wars and tariff wars," Xi said in his article, without mentioning the United States. Later, in a meeting with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Xi said the two countries should oppose unilateral bullying, according to Chinese state media Xinhua.

 

One memorandum of understanding signed on Monday is to boost cooperation between the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which issues certificates on the origins of goods.

https://news.az/news/china-vietnam-ink-deals-during-xi-s-hanoi-visit-amid-us-tariff-tensions

NY Fed Survey Inflation Expectations Make Mockery Of UMich Propaganda

 We have repeatedly said that the UMichigan survey - skewed ridiculously higher by the laughably outlier opinions of Democrats...

... has become a politicized farce (one overseen by rabid marxist professors with TDS such as Justin Wolfers, who at $600K per year, is rather generously overpaid for a communist). Moments ago the latest NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey confirmed as much, when it not only reported that 5Y inflation expectations declined to 2.9% from 3.0%, the lowest since January...

... but that 3Y inflation expectations were unchanged and 1Y inflation expectations rose to 3.6% from 3.1%.

Not surprisingly, two-year yields promptly fell to session lows after the inflation data hit the tape, because the NY Fed survey now openly contradicts UMich as one-year inflation expectations - which rose to 3.6% in March, the highest since September 2023 - remained far, far lower than the Democrat-skewed 6.7% preliminary print for the April UMich report.

But even more importantly, expectations on a longer, five-year horizon have slid to 2.9% in the New York Fed survey. That makes the UMich survey, or rather the folks it polls, look literally retarded and will promptly reverse any ludicrous jitters that inflation expectations are getting unanchored on Main Street.

Some more highlights from the inflation panel:

• Median inflation uncertainty (the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes) decreased at one- and five-year-ahead horizons and was unchanged at the three-year-ahead horizon.
• Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0% in March. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
• Median year-ahead expected price growth increased by 0.1 percentage point for food to 5.2% (its highest level since May 2024), 0.7 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 7.9%, and 0.5 percentage point for rent to 7.2%. Median year-ahead price expectations fell by 0.5 percentage point for gas to 3.2% and 0.2 percentage point for the cost of college education to 6.7%.

While the NY Fed data greatly reduced stagflationary concerns, it did underscore the threat of looming economic slowdown and an outright recession, to wit: unemployment, job loss, and earnings growth expectations deteriorated, while household income growth expectations declined. Households were also more pessimistic about their year-ahead financial situations and credit access. Finally, stock price expectations declined and reached the lowest level since June 2022.

First, looking at the labor market:

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8% in March, equaling its 12-month trailing average. Needless to say, it's tough to have rising inflation when earnings are collapsing, but good luck explaining that to Democrats.

• And this is where alarm bells for the Fed should be going off because while stagflation is clearly off the table, recession is becoming the biggest threat: consider that mean unemployment expectations, or the probability that US jobless rate will be higher 1 year from now, rose 4.6% percentage points m/m to 44.0%; this was the highest reading since April 2020.

• There's more: the perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.7%, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 18.0%, remaining far below the 12-month trailing average of 19.7%.

Turning from the labor market to household finances, things go from bad to worse:

• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated in March. The share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now rose to 30.0%, the highest level since October 2023.

• The median expected growth in household income decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.8% in March, falling below its 12-month trailing average of 3.0%. The decline was most pronounced for respondents with at most a high school degree and for those with annual household incomes under $50,000.
• Median household spending growth expectations declined by 0.1% point to 4.9%.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated, with a larger share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 13.6%, remaining slightly above the 12-month trailing average of 13.4%.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.2%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 26.1%.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now dropped by 3.2 percentage points to 33.8%, the lowest level since June 2022.
•  

Last but not least, the latest confirmation that DOGE is working:

• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 4.6%, the lowest reading of the series since its start in June 2013.

More in the full NY Fed survey available here.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ny-fed-survey-inflation-expectations-make-mockery-umich-propaganda