This Is A RINO Market: 'Recession In Name Only'

 CPI Completed? Check!

ATH Equity? Check!

US equity markets remain resilient, underpinned by strong cross-asset flows.

The rally appears set to extend through Labor Day, driven by:

• Robust corporate earnings broadly exceeding expectations

• Diverse participation from corporates, institutions, and retail investors

• Concentrated leadership in AI, large-cap, quality, and tech names

That said, momentum may fade in September - historically, the weakest month - amid seasonality and investor re-engagement post-summer.

As Scott Rubner (former Goldman flows guru) now explains from his seat at Citadel Securities, This is a #RINO market, recession in name only...

I. Citadel Securities On-the-Ground Sentiment

Client activity remains elevated at equity market all-time highs:

• Cash Equities: Retail net buyers in 15 of the past 17 weeks

• Retail Options: 15-week net buying streak, 16 of last 17 weeks

• Institutional Options: Bullish tone in 5 of the last 6 weeks

II. This Week’s Strategic Debate: When Does Cash Rotate Back into Risk Assets?

With ICI reporting money market AUM at $7.15T (up from $3.63T in early 2020), the key question becomes: what level of yields would prompt reallocation into risk assets if the Fed changes policy?

• A 10% shift (~$700B) could energize dividend-yielding equities, high-grade credit, and risk assets, like the “January Effect” (a seasonal anomaly where equities tend to rise)

• Q4 Rotation Watch: As rate expectations soften, this “dry powder” could power the next leg higher into the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500

Money Market Assets (trillion) vs. US Treasury 3-month money market yield (%)
January 2020 – August 2025

Source: ICI, as reported by Bloomberg and compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

Historical Analog: In 2010, money market assets dropped -27% as yields declined—preceding a rotation into equities

Money Market Assets (trillion) vs. US Treasury 3-month money market yield (%)
January 2005 – January 2015

Source: ICI, as reported by Bloomberg and compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

III. Seasonality Watch

September Setup

• September 3rd often marks the monthly high for SPX since 1928

• Post-Labor Day FOMO participation typically fades, limiting buy the dip behavior

• SPX and NDX historically show August strength followed by September weakness

SPX 500 Monthly Performance
1928 – Today

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

SPX 500 Daily Performance Quilt
1928 – Today

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

IV. Retail Positioning

1. Citadel Securities’ retail cash equities: Net buyers in 15 of the last 17 weeks, following a soft April.

Retail Cash Equities – Net Notional by Week
STD Dev January – Aug 2025

Source:  Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

2. Ongoing strength with 19 straight months of net notional and shares buying.

3. Citadel Securities’ retail cash seasonality trends based on data from August 2017- July 2025.

• June & July = Strong

• August = Slower

• September = Weakest

Retail Cash – Proportion of Net Notional By Month
August 1, 2017 – July 31, 2025

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

V. Volatility and Options Positioning

4. Retail Options Activity: July 2025 set a new monthly volume record at Citadel Securities.

Retail Options – Average Daily Volume by Month
Normalized to January 2020

Source:  Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

5. Citadel Securities’ Retail Option Buying Streak

• 15-week net buying streak and 25 of the last 27 trading days.

• Friday’s activity hit the 99th percentile, 41% above 12-month avg.  

Retail Options – Put / Call Direction Ratio by Week
January – July 2025

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

6. Citadel Securities’ Bullish Retail Options Streak Watch

• 6th longest bullish options streak since 2020

• Average duration of the top 5 streaks is 18 weeks → room for Labor Day upside?

Longest Retail Weekly Option Buying Streaks on Record, since 2020.
# of weeks

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

7. Seasonal Drop Ahead?

Citadel Securities’ retail options volume typically wanes in September.

Retail Options – Proportion of Contract Volume by Month
January 2020 – December 2024

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

8. Citadel Securities Institutional Options

Bullish in 5 of the last 6 weeks, peaking at the 89th percentile. Note that Institutional Options clients moved from bearish to bullish in the last month.

Institutional Options –Call/Put Direction Ratio by Week
January – August 2025

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

9. Volatility trend: Realized vol continues to fall. VIX at the time of typing = 15.20

• 3-month: 26

• 1-month: 9

• 1-week: 12

SPX 3-month realized volatility 
August 2023 – August 2025

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

VI. Corporate Earnings & Passive Flow Dynamics 

10. Q2 Earnings: 75.2% of SPX market cap has reported.

SPX Market Cap reporting by week
Q2 earnings

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results. 

11. Surging Corporate Buybacks

According to Birinyi Associates, US corporates have announced $983 billion worth of authorizations YTD, which makes it the best start to the year on record. In addition, corporate executions are on pace for $1.1 trillion, which would also set a record.

US companies announced share repurchases totaling $166 billion last month, the highest dollar value on record for July. The prior record was $88 billion in July 2006.

12. 2025 Corporate Daily Flow Math: $1.1 trillion over 251 trading days → $4.4 billion/day in equity demand, according to Birinyi Associates. August is historically one of the best months of the year for executions.

13. Sector reporting concludes, ending with Nvidia on 8/27.

SPX GICS Sector by Market Cap
Earnings reporting schedule

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

14. Q2 EPS Growth: +11.4% vs. 5% expected — strongest since Q2 2021

• According to Bloomberg, Q2 EPS beat rate of 81% exceeds the 10-year average of 74%.

SPX Earnings Reporting
As of August 12, 2025

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results. 

Key Insight: Concentration = Earnings beats → passive inflows → price momentum.

Sector Concentration Observations:  

Here are the 11 S&P 500 GICs sectors for the S&P 500 market capitalization index (‘SPX’) and S&P 500 equal weighted index (‘SPW’).

Tech weighting in SPX: 34.3% vs. 13.8% in SPW → +20.5% spread

11 S&P 500 GICs sectors by SPX % market capitalization:

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results. 

This concentration intensifies passive flows into a narrower band of equities; this drives “Magnificent 7” vs. remaining 493.

• Semiconductors: 13.7% (SPX) vs. 3.9% (SPW)

• Software: 11.6% (SPX) vs. 3.9% (SPW)

→ This narrow breadth in the top names, has created more frequent unwinds and squeezes on the short leg of the pair trade.

Top 12 S&P 500 GICs industries by SPX % market capitalization:

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

15. August Positivity Bias

The S&P 500 peaks around September 3rd, going back to 1928.

The final week of August often coincides with low positioning due to vacations, BBQ parties, contributing to upward drift in stocks, especially in low-volume environments.

SPX August Daily Performance
Since 1928

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

NDX August Daily Performance
Since 1985

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

VII. Institutional Positioning and Systematic Re-Leveraging

16. CTA’s: We estimate trend followers are now near fully exposed heading into late August, suggesting limited incremental upside. Our model indicates this cohort is no longer adding exposure at current levels

US Equity Aggregate CTA Positioning
January 2024 – July 2025

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

US CTA Signals 
January 2024 – July 2025

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results. 

17. CFTC Net Longs: Continued increase in positioning back to historical levels.

CFTC S&P 500 Consolidated % Long
January 2022 – July 2025

Source:  COT report, as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/11/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

18. Vol-Control strategies – which take cues from the realized volatility market – have already increased exposure substantially.

5% risk target: 32% exposure (up from 10% in April)

Vol Target Exposure with 5% Risk Control
Exposure Rank since 2020

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results. 

19. 10% volatility target strategies are now at 63% exposure (up from 20% in April)

Vol Target Exposure with 10% Risk Control
Exposure Rank since 2020

Source: Bloomberg as compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

20. Risk Parity strategies – driven by cross-asset volatility – now hold equity exposure near their 3-year average of 25% exposure.

Systematic positioning remains elevated → watch for volatility moves, as flows skew moves to the downside.

Risk Parity Exposure 
Jan 2022 – July 2025

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

21. Sentiment Normalization: AAII allocations back to historical averages → less upside from sentiment alone.

AAII Stock Allocation (%)
Jan 2022 – July 2025

Source: AAII, as reported by Bloomberg and compiled by Citadel Securities, as of 8/12/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

GMI | September Tactical Checklist

Systematic strategies (CTA/Vol-Control) near max exposure → headline and economic risks

September = statistically weakest month for SPX (since 1928)

Volatility rises historically in September (since 1990)

VIX August Monthly Performance
Since 1990

Source: Citadel Securities, as of 8/5/25. Figures are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance figures do not guarantee future results.

Retail participation wanes across cash and options

Cyclicals and high beta may mean revert

Anti-momentum rotation risk remains high

Read more here...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rino-market-recession-name-only

Vyome Gets Approval of Merger with ReShape Lifesciences, Set to Begin Trading as HIND

 Vyome Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage healthcare company targeting immuno-inflammatory and rare diseases in the US and global markets with large market potential, today announced that The Nasdaq Stock Market has approved its listing upon completion of the Company’s previously announced merger with ReShape Lifesciences (Nasdaq: RSLS), which is expected to take effect for marketplace purposes with the open of trading on Friday, August 15, 2025 under the name Vyome Holdings, Inc. and the trading symbol "HIND."

"Nasdaq’s approval is right on track and now we are marching forward to ring the bell on our planned listing date this Friday. We look forward to welcoming RSLS shareholders and invite all others who wish to be part of our journey, which I promise will at all times be focused only on shareholder value. If you believe in the global healthcare market, in the opportunities to do business between the US and India, and in the value of a group of smart people driving real innovation across science and AI, you believe in Vyome," said Krishna Gupta, Chairman of Vyome.

"Inflammation is one of the most impactful chronic conditions afflicting humanity today. There are a large number of inflammatory diseases, a market exceeding over $100B, and all connected to our immune system not functioning as it should. Vyome’s existing, clinical stage assets – developed over years of work – are focused on major unmet indications in this immuno-inflammatory space," said Shiladitya Sengupta, founder of Vyome and Associate Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School.

In connection with the expected completion of the merger and Nasdaq requirements, ReShape’s Board of Directors has declared a 1-for-4 reverse stock split of the company’s common stock, which will also be effective for marketplace purposes upon the commencement of trading on August 15, 2025. At that time, each four shares of issued and outstanding common stock and equivalents will be converted into one share of common stock. The new CUSIP number for the company’s common stock following the reverse stock split and merger will be 92943X104. The reverse split does not impact the post-merger ownership allocations between the ReShape and Vyome shareholders in the deal.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vyome-announces-nasdaq-approval-merger-155000677.html

'Trump vows main goal of Putin Alaska summit is a push for cease-fire: Zelensky'

 President Trump assured Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on a Wednesday call that his main goal for Friday’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is to push for a cease-fire — but he is “not very optimistic” the dictator will budge, a US source familiar with the discussion told The Post.

“If Putin does not agree to [a] cease-fire, then Trump [is] likely to hit them [Russia] with sanctions,” the source said. 

Hours earlier, Zelensky told reporters in Berlin that he, Trump and other European leaders “demonstrated one voice, one desire, and one principle” ahead of the US-Russia summit in Anchorage, Alaska.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaking at a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin on Aug. 13, 2025.Fabian Sommer/dpa via ZUMA Press

“There should be a cease-fire, there should be security guarantees. President Trump said he supports this and spoke about America’s readiness to take part,” the 47-year-old said in laying out his position.

An American source told The Post that the conversation had gone “mostly well,” while Trump himself gave the call a perfect score.

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Trump is holding a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to address the ongoing war with Ukraine.SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

“We had a very good call,” the president told reporters at the Kennedy Center. “I would rate it a 10.”

Notably, the American president promised the European leaders that he would not discuss the status of Ukrainian territory with Putin, with a source confirming it was ultimately “up to Ukraine to decide if and what territorial concessions to make.”

Before any negotiations on a final deal take place, the Western leaders agreed, a cease-fire must be observed — and Ukraine must be included once peace talks begin.

Trump, 79, also said a second meeting with Putin would take place with Zelensky present — but only if Friday’s sitdown aimed at “setting the table” for a future meeting went well. 

“If the first one goes OK, we’ll have a quick second one,” Trump told reporters. “I would like to do it almost immediately, and we’ll have a quick second meeting between President Putin and President Zelensky and myself, if they’d like to have me there.”

If Trump’s skepticism about Putin’s willlingness to play ball is proven true, he and the European leaders agreed that they would “hit Russia with more pressure and sanctions,” the source said.

Ukraine has repeatedly pushed for security guarantees — such as NATO membership or nuclear weapons — but both current and former US administrations have reacted cooly to those ambitions.

However, the source familiar with the Wednesday call said all parties had agreed that whatever the West promises Ukraine will not be subject to Moscow’s veto.

Zelensky also said Trump pledged to call his Ukrainian counterpart immediately after the discussion with Putin. 

Kyiv’s constitution — which, like America’s, doesn’t allow for ceding territory without popular consent — was also discussed on the call after Trump said earlier this week he was “bothered” by Zelensky’s vow to put any land deal to a referendum. 

US law also prohibits Washington from acknowledging any Ukrainian land as Russian without international recognition. 

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Ukraine’s President Zelensky agreed that a cease-fire should be the main goal of Trump and Putin’s Alaska summit.Getty Images

Sources familiar with the discussions said that the Europeans tried to better explain to Trump why a Putin-pushed idea of recognizing the eastern Ukraine territories of Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian before any peace deal is finalized would be impossible.

Zelensky additionally urged the US and Europe to hit Russia with additional punishment, while insisting that Putin “for sure doesn’t want peace. He wants to occupy our territories.”

The White House has described Friday’s summit — the first face-to-face between Putin and any US president since 2021 — as a “listening exercise” to further understand the goals of Moscow’s 41-month-old invasion. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that Trump needs to assess “with his own eyes” whether Putin is serious about ending his conflict.

Trump has insisted in the past that Zelensky needs to meet with Putin to bring an end to Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. 

Zelensky was not invited to Friday’s meeting because it was proposed by Putin himself, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Tuesday. 

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had originally proposed a trilateral meeting — with Trump, Putin and Zelensky — at the president’s request before Putin countered with the one-on-one idea, according to White House sources. 

Putin, 72, has long refused to meet with Zelensky, but has long desired to talk directly to Trump.

https://nypost.com/2025/08/13/world-news/trump-vows-main-goal-of-putin-alaska-summit-is-a-push-for-cease-fire-zelensky/