What happens with a secure border?
A new report from the U.S. Census Bureau describes a remarkable set of changes happening in the United States. Population growth is slowing or reversing toward decline in many metropolitan areas, and population losses are accelerating in some counties that were already shrinking.
Several things are happening behind those changes, but here’s what the Census Bureau identifies as the biggest cause:
“These shifts were largely due to lower levels of net international migration (NIM), which declined nationwide. Nine out of 10 U.S. counties experienced lower NIM levels between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, compared to the year prior. The one in 10 counties that did not see a drop in international migration did not see an increase either.”
So far fewer people are coming to the United States, which is slowing population growth in the places those immigrants were most likely to go. But we’re not just discussing immigrants, because we’re largely talking about a more specific type of immigration.
In a report last summer, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco identified the leading cause of the increasingly apparent decline in net migration: “Fewer undocumented immigrants arriving at or between ports of entry also led to a significantly lower 2025 NIM projection relative to 2023 and 2024…[as] the inflow of undocumented immigrants declined from a peak of around 1.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 to around 180,000 in the second quarter of 2025.”
So when you see the Census Bureau using the term “net international migration,” a lot of what they’re talking about is illegal immigration.
The Census Bureau adds this interesting fact: “Some of the country’s most populous counties experienced the greatest impacts from lower NIM.”
In other words, Deep Blue cities like Los Angeles and New York City are getting hit the hardest. The New York Times has turned the data into a helpful color-coded map to illustrate this story, and it’s quite something to look at. Net immigration is down 67 percent in LA, 72 percent in the Denver metropolitan area, 62 percent in Chicago, and 65 percent in the New York City metropolitan area. Remember this pattern, because I’ll come back to it in a moment.
The new Census Bureau report develops some themes that have been showing up in official reports for a few months, and you can also take a look at this late January report: “New Population Estimates Show Historic Decline in Net International Migration.” If the trend continues, the Census Bureau says, net international migration into the United States is “projected to further decline to approximately 321,000 in 2026.” That’s a massive decline.
Not every place is experiencing lower rates of population growth, though, as “many of the fastest-growing counties were in states along the southeast coast of the United States in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia.” So people are fleeing Los Angeles and Chicago, but pouring into the South. Alongside the decline in international migration, domestic migration is reshaping the country.
If you clicked on the link up above to read that New York Times story, you saw that they’re spinning a sharp decline in immigration (including illegal immigration, though they downplay that part) as an emerging disaster. Birthrates are declining, and America “needs a population of young workers and taxpayers large enough to finance infrastructure like schools, hospitals and health care for older residents.” So less immigration is just loss, because “if immigration remains low for too long, it could lead to problems maintaining a population and a work force.”
But the Times also says this, and here we get to the really interesting part:
They certainly might be relieved, yes, and the pause in the need for assistance is likely to be much bigger than they want to say. What the Times doesn’t mention is that a massive wave of illegal immigration has produced a dependency crisis, and the massively expensive growth of social services programs, in Democrat-run states and cities. New York City is facing a $12 billion budget deficit, for example, but you can go read Biden-era news to find the source of the problem: “NYC mayor puts $12 billion cost on migrant crisis,” Politico reported in 2023.Those new immigrants often required a lot of resources and assistance, said Julia Gelatt, an associate director at the Migration Policy Institute, a research center in Washington. “So some cities,” she added, “might be relieved to have a pause in those people who need initial assistance.”
Here’s a headline from 2024: “Denver cuts services in response to the migrant crisis that’s costing the city $180 million.”
Here’s a June 2025 headline from Chicago: “Illinois projected to spend $2.5B on migrants by end of 2025, report claims.”
You can find similar stories in Minnesota and California without much effort. As a 2023 headline at NPR defiantly declared: “More states extend health coverage to immigrants even as issue inflames GOP.”
Now, going back a few paragraphs, remember which places are seeing the biggest declines in net immigration? A decline in illegal immigration may just save a bunch of Democrat-run states and cities from insolvency, reducing the size of a large population that depends on government services to live. History has a sense of humor: ICE and the Border Patrol are delivering a massive dose of help to Zohran Mamdani and Gavin Newsom.
Chris Bray is a former infantry sergeant in the U.S. Army, and has a history PhD from the University of California Los Angeles, not that it did him any good. He also posts on Substack, at "Tell Me How This Ends," here.
