Can We Trust the Iranians to Uphold a Deal?

 by Roger Simon

The President says we’re negotiating with whoever now represents the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, the Iranians say we’re not, although they insist on talking to Rubio and Vance, not to Kushner and Witkoff. Go figure.

Whatever the case, the New York Times provides some details, claiming the U. S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war that Trump says we have won, and that they, the mullahs and their cohorts, are eager to make a deal.

They certainly have suffered under an almost unparalleled attack by the U. S. and Israel, to which their response, though persistent, has not been particularly potent and seems to be dwindling.

So maybe they are, even if the talks are not direct or whatever other tedious propaganda we have to sit through

Most importantly, however, if we do make a deal, can Iran be trusted?

Not on their record. They cheated throughout the nuclear deal, the so-called JCPOA, originally urged on the world in 2013 by Barack Obama and signed in 2015 by multiple nations. The terms of that deal were shaky at best, with Iran largely in control of inspections from the start. Enforcement, from the UN and elsewhere, barely existed.

Are the people we are dealing with now all that different from those who signed that deal?

Without knowing exactly who they are, the chances are they are (titularly, supposedly) Shia Muslims. 90—95% of Iran is. Shia ideology embraces taqiyya, a concept that has been defined in different ways, but has been interpreted by many as justifying lying in defense of the faith or to advance it.

It’s likely that our new interlocutors, like the previous mullahs and Republican Guards, are Shia.

I used the parenthetical above because a great many of the actual Iranian, particularly Persian, citizens, reject Islam, or pretend to observe it only for their personal safety. We have seen this with freedom demonstrators throughout the years, many of whom embrace their original religion, Zoroastrianism, and verbally attack Islam. Despite the regime, the Zoroastrian holiday of Nowruz is widely celebrated. Others prefer Christianity. Some are secular.

It’s hard to imagine that these demonstrators, who, almost all unarmed, dared to protest the brutal mullahs and were shot, sometimes in their hospital beds, will not be at risk from a peace deal. They will be targets now and in the years to come by rulers for whom murder and torture were a way of life. Again, are the new ones different? How do we know? Because they tell us so?

These demonstrators are the very people we applauded and hoped would succeed. They were our heroes. How will they be protected? Are they included in the 15 points of the American proposal?

I would like to think so, but I am skeptical. I’m not sure it can even be done with a “peace deal”. I think it can only happen with regime change. This is not Venezuela. Iran is altogether different.

I hope I’m wrong, but the only road I can see to a decent resolution is for the Americans and the Israelis to finish the job, execute a real, verifiable change to democracy that can be seen and validated by the whole world. In other words, what occurred after the Second World War.

Otherwise, we are likely to be doing this all over again, this time with an Iran armed with ICBMs that can reach Chicago. Europe, as we have seen, is already within range.

Yes, the political and financial pressures on Trump are strong, with a floundering stock market and the midterms looming. Few politicians could withstand it all, but I like to think that Trump can. I worry about some of those around him.

We’re in a civilizational war.

Anyway, this is far from over. I could say “stay tuned,” but I’m pretty sure we all will anyway. Perhaps, in a few days, our Marines will be taking over Kharg Island.

Then we’ll tear everything up like Chico and Groucho in the great contract scene from “A Night at the Opera.”

One thing I would add to the 15 points is it’s not there is absolutely to stop celebrating the “National Day of Fight against Global Arrogance,” aka “Death to America” Day, every November 4. That commemorates the day 49 Americans were kinapped from our embassy in 1979 and held for 444 days. No more of that and no more anti-American/anti-Israeli propaganda all over their streets. If they can’t do that, they’re not serious

https://americanrefugees.substack.com/p/can-we-trust-the-iranians-to-uphold