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Thursday, April 23, 2026

IBM beats Q1 2026 estimates with EPS $1.91, revenue $15.9B as J.P. Morgan cuts price target

 

IBM beats Q1 2026 estimates with EPS $1.91, revenue $15.9B as J.P. Morgan cuts price target to $270 from $283

  • J.P. Morgan Securities cut IBM price target to $270 from $283 after it maintained full-year guidance despite slowing revenue growth.
  • Q1 2026 revenue was $15.92B, up 9% YoY, supported by AI-driven hybrid cloud and mainframe growth.
  • Q1 revenue grew 6% at constant currency, with broad-based strength in software and infrastructure.
  • Software revenue rose 8%, driven by 16% growth in Data and 10% growth in Red Hat.
  • Infrastructure revenue increased 12%, including 48% growth in IBM Z and double-digit distributed infrastructure.
  • Consulting grew 1%, with signings up 6% and generative AI now ~30% of backlog.
  • Consulting revenue slightly missed estimates despite overall Q1 earnings and revenue outperformance.
  • Margins expanded strongly: operating pretax margin +140 bps, infrastructure margin +720 bps, software +60 bps.
  • Free cash flow was $2.2 billion, up 13% YoY, the strongest Q1 in a decade.
  • Full-year 2026 guidance maintained: 5%+ constant-currency revenue growth and ~$1 billion free cash flow increase.
  • Management now expects software to grow 10%+ in 2026, data segment low-20%+, consulting low-to-mid single digits.
  • IBM increased its quarterly dividend to $1.69, raising its regular payout to shareholders.
  • Key risks: macro/geopolitics, infrastructure and mainframe cycle dependence, despite unchanged guidance and no reported demand deterioration.
  • Strong quarter, driven by accelerating software and infrastructure growth, expanding margins, and robust free cash flow.

Prediction Markets Kalshi traders don't see Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal until July

 Bettors on the prediction markets platform Kalshi don’t think the Strait of Hormuz will be open to normal traffic flows for months. 

Odds that traffic will return to normal by June 1 fell below 50% on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran extended a ceasefire but neither side disclosed any new agreement regarding Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. ending its naval blockade of the passageway. 

On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the strait, while oil prices climbed higher with Brent crude again above $100 per barrel. 

Bettors on Kalshi give just a 42% chance that normal traffic flows through the strait by June 1. They assign a 59% chance that happens by July 1, and a 61% chance by Aug. 1. Kalshi defines normal traffic flows on the contract as the seven-day moving average of transit calls through the strait based on data from IMF PortWatch. 

On Polymarket, bettors give a 45% chance that traffic through the strait returns to normal by the end of May, and a 67% chance by the end of June. Polymarket uses the same definition of normal traffic as Kalshi. 

Transit through the strait remains low. On Wednesday — the same day Iran said it seized two ships sailing through the strait without authorization — eight ships crossed the strait, including three oil tankers, according to data from LSEG. Before the war, traffic typically included more than 100 ships daily in the strait. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/kalshi-bettors-see-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-normal-by-july.html

WH accuses China of stealing AI technology

 White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Director Michael Kratsios accused China of carrying out "industrial-scale" theft of the United States' artificial intelligence labs' technology in a memo published on Thursday.

"The US government has information indicating that foreign entities, principally based in China, are engaged in deliberate, industrial-scale campaigns to distil US frontier AI systems," Kratsios said in the memo, adding that the campaigns were "leveraging tens of thousands of proxy accounts to evade detection and using jailbreaking techniques to expose proprietary information."

The White House official also revealed that the US government will inform American AI companies about "attempts by foreign actors to conduct unauthorized, industrial-scale distillation" to help them protect themselves from the attacks, and that Washington will consider measures to hold those actors accountable.

https://breakingthenews.net/Article/WH-accuses-China-of-stealing-AI-technology/66136553

US deploys drones in Hormuz mine clearance

 The U.S. military is accelerating mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime drones are reportedly being used in this operation. While specific details remain undisclosed, the U.S. Navy possesses diverse capabilities, including helicopters, littoral combat ships, LCS, and even trained dolphins.

According to the Wall Street Journal, WSJ, on the 19th, a U.S. Department of Defense official stated that the U.S. military is employing both manned and unmanned capabilities in mine-clearing operations.

Maritime drones encompass unmanned surface vessels and unmanned underwater vehicles, capable of detecting mines beneath the sea using underwater sonar without exposing crew members to danger.

As the U.S. Navy retires traditional minesweepers, vessels designed to detect and remove mines, maritime drones are increasingly becoming crucial to the Navy’s anti-mine capabilities, according to the WSJ. The conventional method had the drawback of exposing sailors to mine threats. Scott Savitz, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, a think tank, stated, "Since there is less concern about casualties, sending drones into minefields is much more acceptable," adding, "Even if some are lost, they can be replaced."

The anti-mine capabilities currently operable by the U.S. Navy are diverse. Unmanned surface vessels developed by defense contractor RTX are equipped with the AQS-20, a new floating underwater sonar system, and can sweep a 100-foot (approximately 30-meter) wide seabed at once. Underwater drones developed by General Dynamics, the 'MK18 Mod 2 Kingfish' and 'Knifefish,' use batteries as their power source and can be deployed from small boats.

Notably, the Navy is also known to utilize trained dolphins. According to the U.S. military, the Navy employs bottlenose dolphins and California sea lions in missions such as mine detection through its Marine Mammal Program. These animals are trained to detect, identify, mark, and recover objects in ports, coastal waters, and deep seas. Both species are known for their high trainability and adaptability to various marine environments. Particularly, dolphins can easily locate potential hazards like mines even in environments difficult to detect with sonar, thanks to their exceptional echolocation capabilities. However, it remains unknown whether dolphins were deployed in the current mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Retired Rear Admiral Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, projected, "Unmanned underwater vehicles can survey small waterways in the region within days rather than weeks." He added that if the Navy first clears mines in narrow areas to resume partial passage, safe routes can gradually be expanded.

It remains uncertain how many mines Iran has deployed. However, experts analyze that due to U.S. military pressure, Iran likely failed to lay large-scale mines. Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former senior U.S. Navy official, stated, "Due to U.S. military pressure, Iran probably could not use large mine-laying vessels and had to rely on small fishing boats or cargo ships," adding, "The number of mines is likely smaller than expected."

Even after agreeing to a ceasefire with the U.S., Iran has not fully opened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has warned that mines are present in major shipping routes of the strait and has demanded the use of new routes under its control. There are observations that if the U.S. clears mines to resume partial passage, it could weaken Iran’s control over the strait and serve as a driving force for Iran to engage more actively in negotiations.

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/us-deploys-drones-in-hormuz-mine-clearance/ar-AA21ifW1

UK Biobank patient data stolen and placed on sale in China

 There has been a major data security lapse at the UK Biobank, with "de-identified" data from its 500,000 volunteers listed for sale in China.

A message to participants in the Biobank, sent from chief executive Prof Sir Rory Collins today, notes that "listings offering access to UK Biobank data …were found on a Chinese consumer website [but] were swiftly removed before any purchases were made."

Initial reports suggest that the data was offered through Alibaba's Taobao platform, the largest online retail platform in China, which has been cited for a number of years as having problems with intellectual property (IP) protection in the US Trade Representative (USTR) annual 'Notorious Markets' report.

It is understood that the breach did not reveal any personal data, such as names, addresses, contact details, and NHS numbers, but the breach appears to have exposed data that would normally be accessible only by vetted, bona fide researchers from academic, charity, government, and commercial organisations.

According to the UK government, the breach seems to have originated from research organisations granted access to the data legitimately, rather than a hacker group, and that access by these groups has now been revoked.

Last year, news that one in five data access requests came from Chinese research groups sparked a warning from MI5, reported by The Guardian, about concerns that they may share data with Chinese intelligence agencies.

While Collins said that measures had been taken to make sure that this type of incident cannot occur again, including an upgrade that helps prevent de-identified data being taken out of the platform, the breach could dent confidence in the security of health information, just as the UK government is preparing to launch a data-sharing initiative for records held by GPs to other organisations, including the Biobank.

The Minister for Science, Innovation, and Technology, Ian Murray, told Parliament this today that at least three listings had appeared offering the data, including one that appeared to "contain data from all 500,000 UK Biobank volunteers."

He added that "additional listings offered support for applying for legitimate access to UK Biobank or analytical support for researchers who already have access to the data," and indicated that – based on discussions with the listings website owner – there had been no recorded sales of the information.

At the moment, it's not clear if the data is also being offered for sale through other channels, including the Dark Web.

A pause has been placed on access to the Biobank while a technical solution is implemented to "prevent data from its current platform from being downloaded in this way again," said Murray.

He added: "This has been an unacceptable abuse of the UK Biobank charity's data and an abuse of the trust that participants rightly expect when sharing their data for research purposes," and said the government will be issuing new guidance on control of data from research studies.

Studies conducted using Biobank data have already yielded important new findings, such as the discovery of genes that affect the risk of heart disease or cancer, new ways to predict dementia, and early warning signals for cancers and Parkinson's disease.

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/uk-biobank-patient-data-stolen-and-placed-sale-china

Pot Stocks Soar As DoJ Reclassifies Medical Marijuana As Less Dangerous Drug

 Pot stocks are moving higher in premarket trading in New York after the Justice Department and DEA announced that FDA-approved marijuana-based drugs and state-licensed medical marijuana products will be moved immediately from Schedule I to Schedule III. This is a major shift in how the federal government classifies these types of cannabis products.

The classification is designed to expand access to approved therapies, support state-regulated medical marijuana programs, and make research easier, while still keeping federal controls in place against black market operators.

The reclassification legitimizes medical marijuana programs already operating in 40 states. It also creates a faster DEA registration path for state-licensed medical marijuana operators and protects researchers using state-licensed cannabis products.

"The Department of Justice is delivering on President Trump’s promise to expand Americans’ access to medical treatment options," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated in a press release.

Blanche continued, “This rescheduling action allows for research on the safety and efficacy of this substance, ultimately providing patients with better care and doctors with more reliable information.”

It appears the Trump administration is taking a two-track approach: immediate relief and policy clarity for medical marijuana and researchers, while also setting up a faster legal roadmap toward broader federal reclassification later.

The news sent marijuana stocks soaring in premarket trading:

  • Canopy Growth (CGC): $1.48, up about 7%

  • Tilray Brands (TLRY): $8.50, up about 8%

  • Aurora Cannabis (ACB): $4.01, up about 5.5%

  • Cronos Group (CRON): $3, up about 7%

  • Organigram Global (OGI): $1.67, up about 5%

  • SNDL (SNDL): $1.77, up about 6.6%

  • Village Farms (VFF): $3.31, up about 7%

Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), which holds several of the major cannabis names listed above, is up nearly 6% in premarket trading. MJ remains flat year-to-date but has rallied 33% over the past month.

Related: 

Late last year:

Trump is on a roll: 

DoJ noted, "Today’s order is reflective of the Department of Justice’s continued dedication to common-sense policies and the prioritization of the safety and well-being of all Americans."

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pot-stocks-soar-doj-reclassifies-medical-marijuana-less-dangerous-drug

Medpace Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS $4.28 (+17% YoY) and revenue $706.6M (+27% YoY)

 


  • For 2026, Medpace guides to 8.9%-12.8% revenue growth versus 2025 results.
  • 2026 GAAP EPS guidance is $16.68 to $17.50, as disclosed with first-quarter results.
  • President Jesse Geiger will retire effective May 31, 2026, according to the SEC filing.