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Tuesday, May 13, 2025

The Deep State Goes Viral

Via The Brownstone Institute,

The following is Jeffrey Tucker’s Foreword introduction to Debbie Lerman’s new book, The Deep State Goes Viral: Pandemic Planning and the Covid Coup.

It was about a month into lockdowns, April 2020, and my phone rang with an unusual number. I picked up and the caller identified himself as Rajeev Venkayya, a name I knew from my writings on the 2005 pandemic scare. Now the head of a vaccine company, he once served as Special Assistant to the President for Biodefense, and claimed to be the inventor of pandemic planning. 

Venkayya was a primary author of “A National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza” as issued by the George W. Bush administration in 2005. 

It was the first document that mapped out a nascent version of lockdowns, designed for global deployment. 

“A flu pandemic would have global consequences,” said Bush, “so no nation can afford to ignore this threat, and every nation has responsibilities to detect and stop its spread.”

It was always a strange document because it stood in constant contradiction to public health orthodoxies dating back decades and even a century. 

With it, there were two alternative paths in place in the event of a new virus: the normal path that everyone is taught in medical school (therapeutics for the sick, caution with social disturbances, calm and reason, quarantines only in extreme cases) and a biosecurity path that invoked totalitarian measures. 

Those two paths existed side-by-side for a decade and a half before the lockdowns. 

Now I found myself speaking with the guy who claims credit for having mapped out the biosecurity approach, which contradicted all public health wisdom and experience. His plan was finally being implemented. Not too many voices dissented, partially due to fear but also due to censorship, which was already very tight. He told me to stop objecting to the lockdowns because they have everything under control. 

I asked a basic question. Let’s say we all hunker down, hide under the sofa, eschew physical meetings with family and friends, stop all gatherings of all kinds, and keep businesses and schools closed. What, I asked, happens to the virus itself? Does it jump in a hole in the ground or head to Mars for fear of another press conference by Andrew Cuomo or Anthony Fauci? 

After some fallacy-filled banter about the R-naught, I could tell he was getting exasperated with me, and finally, with some hesitation, he told me the plan. There would be a vaccine. I balked and said that no vaccine can sterilize against a fast-mutating respiratory pathogen with a zoonotic reservoir. Even if such a thing did appear, it would take 10 years of trials and testing before it was safe to release to the general population. Are we going to stay locked down for a decade?

“It will come much faster,” he said. “You watch. You will be surprised.”

Hanging up, I recall dismissing him as a crank, a has-been with nothing better to do than call up poor writers and bug them. 

I had entirely misread the meaning, simply because I was not prepared to understand the sheer depth and vastness of the operation now in play. All that was taking place struck me as obviously destructive and fundamentally flawed but rooted in a kind of intellectual error: a loss of understanding of virology basics. 

Around the same time, the New York Times posted without fanfare a new document called PanCAP-A: Pandemic Crisis Action Plan – Adapted. It was Venkayya’s plan, only intensified, as released on March 13, 2020, three days before President Trump’s press conference announcing the lockdowns. I read through it, reposted it, but had no idea what it meant. I hoped someone could come along to explain it, interpret it, and tease out its implications, all in the interest of getting to the bottom of the who, what, and why of this fundamental attack on civilization itself. 

That person did come along. She is Debbie Lerman, intrepid author of this wonderful book that so beautifully presents the best thoughts on all the questions that had eluded me. She took the document apart and discovered a fundamental truth therein. The rule-making authority for the pandemic response was not vested in public-health agencies but the National Security Council.

This was stated as plain as day in the document; I had somehow missed that. This was not public health. It was national security. The antidote under development with the label vaccine was really a military countermeasure. In other words, this was Venkayya’s plan times ten, and the idea was precisely to override all tradition and public health concerns and replace them with national security measures. 

Realizing this fundamentally changes the structure of the story of the last five years. This is not a story of a world that mysteriously forgot about natural immunity and made some intellectual error in thinking that governments could shut down economies and turn them back on again, scaring a pathogen back to where it came from. What we experienced in a very real sense was quasi-martial law, a deep-state coup not only on a national but on an international level. 

These are terrifying thoughts and hardly anyone is prepared to discuss them, which is why Lerman’s book is so crucial. In terms of public debate about what happened to us, we are barely at the beginning. There is now a willingness to admit that the lockdowns did more overall harm than good. Even the legacy media has started venturing out to grant permission for such thoughts. But the role of the pharmaceuticals in driving the policy and the role of the national-security state in backing this grand industrial project is still taboo. 

In 21st-century journalism and advocacy designed to influence the public mind, the overwhelming concern of all writers and institutions is professional survival. That means fitting into an approved ethos or paradigm regardless of the facts. This is why Lerman’s thesis is not debated; it is hardly spoken of at all in polite society. That said, my work at Brownstone Institute has put me in close contact with many thinkers in high places. This much I can say: what Lerman has written in this book is not disputed but admitted in private. 

Strange isn’t it? We saw during the Covid years how professional aspiration incentivized silence even in the face of egregious violations of human rights, including mandatory school closures that robbed children of education, followed by face-covering requirements and forced injections for the whole population. The near-silence was deafening even if anyone with a brain and a conscience knew that all of this was wrong. Not even the excuse that “We didn’t know” works anymore because we did know. 

This same dynamic of social and cultural control is fully in operation now that we are through that stage and onto another one, which is precisely why Lerman’s findings have not yet made their way to polite society, to say nothing of mainstream media. Will we get there? Maybe. This book can help; at least it is now available for everyone brave enough to confront the facts. You will find herein the most well-documented and coherent presentation of answers to the core questions (what, how, why) that all of us have been asking since this hell was first visited upon us. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/deep-state-goes-viral

Student Loan Delinquencies Surge, Hammer Credit Scores - Southern States Hit Hardest

 The party is over for millions of Americans who paused payments on their federal student loans over the last several years through pandemic-era forbearance programs. Many had hoped for sweeping loan forgiveness under the Biden-Harris administration, But with the federal government officially resuming collections on defaulted loans this month—for the first time in over five years—borrowers now face sliding credit scores as delinquencies soar, while in April we warned the restart could drain as much as $63 billion from the economy. 

On Tuesday, the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, updated through the first quarter of 2025.

Within the report is a snapshot of consumer credit profiles, including the sharp rise in delinquent student loan debt that's now piling up.

Starting with a 10,000-foot view; in the first quarter of 2025 the aggregate U.S. delinquency rate climbed to 4.3% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency - up from 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Total aggregate household debt increased by $167 billion in the quarter, up .9% from 4Q24, while overall, America's consumer debt balance now stands at a whopping $18.20 trillion - an increase of more than $4 trillion since 4Q19.

Narrowing it down, while early-stage delinquency rates remained stable across most debt categories, student loans bucked the trend, posting a sharp increase as the federal government resumed credit reporting on missed payments for the first time in nearly five years.

"Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw a large uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic," the quarterly report said. 

The shift comes amid the expiration of pandemic-era forbearance, exposing millions of borrowers to renewed repayment obligations

Last month, Education Secretary Linda McMahon told President Trump at a Cabinet meeting: 

"We're going to start getting it back," adding "For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying -- that's just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they're in default, they can't buy a house, they can't buy a car, their credit scores go down."

Also reported last month (full note available to premium subs), student-loan delinquencies have increased since the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers' credit reports.

Transition rates into serious delinquency (90+ days past due) held steady for auto loans and credit cards, but rose for mortgages, HELOCs, and, notably, student loans, reflecting growing financial strain among consumers.

Bloomberg noted: 

Transitioning into serious delinquency (90-plus days late) for student loans rose to tie a 10-year-old record for those age 50 and older. Among that cohort, 11.23%, or around one in nine households, is now seriously delinquent on their student loan debt. Americans age 50 and older held $418.5 billion in student loan debt, split among 9.2 million borrowers. The ratios of serious delinquency for younger age groups was lower but still rose sharply. The average age of a delinquent borrower ticked up to 40.4.

The Fed's data shows that the credit hit is substantial for newly delinquent student loan borrowers. Among the 7.5% who had a relatively high credit score of at least 720 before the delinquency, their scores dropped by 177 points on average. Overall, the Fed found that 2.2 million borrowers saw their credit scores drop by at least 100 points.

Data from Bloomberg shows the student debt bubble stood at a record high of $1.63 trillion. 

New York Fed economists via Liberty Street Economics published a note with more color about the student loan turmoil unfolding, indicating "more than twenty million federal borrowers were not in repayment and five million federal borrowers had a zero dollar monthly payment," adding, "Among borrowers who were required to make payments, nearly one in four student loan borrowers (23.7 percent) were behind on their student loans in the first quarter of 2025." 

The economists noted that seven states have a conditional borrower delinquency rate over 30%: Mississippi (44.6%), Alabama (34.1%), West Virginia (34.0%), Kentucky (33.6%), Oklahoma (33.6%), Arkansas (33.5%), and Louisiana (31.8%). These states are located in the heartland and are primarily Trump states

The economists offered their take on the grave situation:

After a five-year hiatus, student loan delinquency has returned to the pre-pandemic "normal" with more than 10 percent of balances and roughly six million borrowers either past due or in default. The ramifications of student loan delinquency are severe.

The U.S. Department of Education, in concert with the U.S. Treasury, began collection efforts for defaulted loans in May, which includes the garnishment of wages, tax returns, and Social Security payments.

Additionally, millions of borrowers face steep declines in their credit standing which will increase borrowing costs or seriously limit their access to credit like mortgages and auto loans. It is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.

Millennials and GenX feeling the brunt of student debt woes. 

Credit score downgrades begin... 

More:

What's critical to understand is that delinquent student loan debt continues to pile up quickly, increasingly hitting borrowers' credit reports. This growing wave of defaults could trigger a domino effect on consumer spending, potentially dragging down GDP by as much as $63 billion—a risk we warned about in our note titled The Next Economic Shock: Student Loan Default Wave = $63 Billion GDP Hit ...

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View the full report here:

Nutex Health Q1 2025 Earnings: EPS of $2.56 Beats Estimates, Revenue Soars to $211.8 M

 

  • Revenue: $211.8 million, significantly surpassing the estimated $117.70 million, marking a 213.8% increase from Q1 2024.
  • Net Income: Achieved $14.6 million, a substantial turnaround from a net loss of $0.4 million in Q1 2024.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported at $2.56, exceeding the estimated EPS of $2.29 and improving from $(0.08) in Q1 2024.
  • EBITDA: Reached $43.1 million, a 507.0% increase compared to $7.1 million in Q1 2024.
  • Adjusted EBITDA: Recorded at $72.8 million, a significant improvement from $(0.4) million in Q1 2024.
  • Net Cash from Operating Activities: Achieved a record high of $51.0 million, indicating strong operational cash flow.

Vermont governor pauses electric vehicle requirements

 Governor Phil Scott has issued Executive Order 04-25, directing the Agency of Natural Resources to halt enforcement of a multi-state plan that mandates vehicle manufacturers to meet specific electric vehicle (EV) sales targets for passenger cars and medium- and heavy-trucks.

Governor Scott said,

I continue to believe we should be incentivizing Vermonters to transition to cleaner energy options like electric vehicles. However, we have to be realistic about a pace that’s achievable. It’s clear we don’t have anywhere near enough charging infrastructure and insufficient technological advances in heavy-duty vehicles to meet current goals. We have much more work to do, in order make it more convenient, faster, and more affordable to buy, maintain and charge EV’s. When we do, it’s more likely everyday Vermonters will make the switch.

https://cbs6albany.com/news/local/governor-phil-scott-pauses-electric-vehicle-sales-requirements-in-vermont

Verrica: Demand for Ycanth up

  Company reports $3.4 million in YCANTH revenue, reflective of increasing demand, following the dispensing of more than 10,000 applicator units in the quarter, the most in company history and a 16.7% growth over Q4’24 –

– Late-stage pipeline continues to advance with completion of end-of-Phase 2 meeting with Food and Drug Administration for VP-315, Verrica’s candidate for basal cell carcinoma, and continued advancement towards initiation of global Phase 3 program in common warts (VP-102/YCANTH) with partner Torii Pharmaceutical –

– Conference call scheduled for today at 4:30 pm ET 

Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call today, May 13 at 4:30 pm, to discuss its first quarter 2025 financial results and provide a business update. To participate in the conference call, please utilize the following information:

Domestic Dial-In Number: Toll-Free: 1-800-343-4136
International Dial-In Number: 1-203-518-9843
Conference ID: VERRICA

Participants can use Guest dial-in #s above and be answered by an operator.

Webcast:

https://viavid.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1717041&tp_key=2eb61f30fc

The call will be broadcast live over the Web and can also be accessed on Verrica Pharmaceuticals’ website: www.verrica.com

The conference call will also be available for replay for one month on the Company’s website in the Events Calendar of the Investors section.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/05/13/3080644/0/en/Verrica-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Quarterly-2025-Financial-Results.html

Semler Bitcoin treasury strategy takes center stage

 Semler Scientific Inc (NASDAQ:SMLR) presented its corporate strategy on May 13, 2025, revealing an intensified focus on its Bitcoin treasury strategy alongside its traditional healthcare diagnostics business. The presentation, titled "The Semler Vision: Medical (TASE:BLWV) and Monetary Freedom," highlighted the company’s significant Bitcoin accumulation efforts while providing updates on its healthcare operations.

The stock closed at $34.84 on the presentation day, up 5.34%, but slipped 0.55% to $36.50 in aftermarket trading, reflecting mixed investor sentiment about the company’s dual-focus strategy. Semler’s stock has experienced significant volatility over the past year, trading between $21.77 and $81.56.

Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

Semler’s presentation emphasized its Bitcoin holdings as a cornerstone of its corporate strategy. As of May 12, 2025, the company reported holding 3,733 bitcoins with a market value of $387.9 million, acquired at a total cost of $340.0 million.

The company has steadily accumulated Bitcoin over the past year, as illustrated in the following chart tracking Bitcoin acquisitions from May 2024 through April 2025

This accumulation strategy has resulted in substantial market value growth, with the company’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $387.9 million by May 2025

Semler highlighted several Bitcoin performance metrics, including a 106.8% BTC yield for FY2024 and 22.2% year-to-date in 2025. The company reported Bitcoin gains of 875 BTC for FY2024 and 510 BTC year-to-date in 2025.

While Bitcoin dominated much of the presentation, Semler also provided updates on its core healthcare diagnostics business. The company reported FY2024 revenues of $56.3 million and Q1 2025 revenues of $8.8 million. Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash stood at $9.9 million as of March 31, 2025.

This represents a significant decline from previous performance levels. In its Q4 2024 earnings report, Semler had reported quarterly revenue of $12.4 million, which was already an 18% decrease year-over-year. The Q1 2025 revenue of $8.8 million suggests a continued downward trend in the company’s core business.

Semler’s healthcare business targets large enterprise customers, including health insurance plans, home risk assessment companies, and medical groups. The company indicated plans to expand its product offerings to include other FDA-cleared products and is seeking an additional 510(K) clearance.

Semler outlined its funding sources for Bitcoin purchases, emphasizing its goal to "maximize stockholder returns while accumulating more Bitcoin." The company has utilized three primary funding sources: operating cash flow (~$72 million, 21%), convertible bonds (~$89 million, 26%), and at-the-market (ATM) issuances (~$179 million, 53%).

The presentation noted that Semler has $438 million remaining in its ATM authorization, suggesting the company plans to continue its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. This approach aligns with the company’s stated business model of creating stockholder value through Bitcoin accumulation, using debt and equity issuances, and leveraging its historically cash-generative healthcare business.

Despite the optimistic presentation, Semler faces several challenges. The company’s Q4 2024 earnings report had indicated potential revenue pressure in 2025 due to CMS rate changes. The presentation’s forward-looking statements disclaimer highlighted several risk factors, including those associated with Bitcoin investing, indebtedness, obtaining new 510(k) clearances, and a potential civil suit by the U.S. Department of Justice.

https://au.investing.com/news/company-news/semler-scientific-q1-2025-slides-bitcoin-treasury-strategy-takes-center-stage-93CH-3840063

GRAIL falls 16% after Q1 topline miss

 

  • GRAIL (NASDAQ:GRAL) is down ~16% in after-hours trading Tuesday after reporting Q1 financial results that missed on the top line. It beat on the bottom line.
  • Q1 revenue of $31.8M was a 19% increase compared to the prior-year period.
  • GAAP net loss per share, basic and diluted, narrowed to ($3.10) from ($7.05) in Q1 2024.
  • GRAIL ended the quarter (March 31) with ~$133.9M in cash and cash equivalents, compared to ~$214.2M at the end of 2024.