With Bristol Myers Squibb/Bluebird’s ide-cel, now branded Abecma, making it across the US finish line, investors might glance nervously at how much this BCMA-targeted Car-T therapy is expected to sell. The 2026 forecast is $1.2bn, according to sellside consensus compiled by Evaluate Pharma, a seemingly tall order given that Abecma has surprisingly been indicated for fifth-line use, even though its KarMMa study was in fourth-line patients. Of course, much of the number will be down to Abecma breaking into earlier lines of multiple myeloma therapy, but here toxicity could trip the therapy up: the label lists hamophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis/macrophage activation syndrome and cytopenia in a boxed warning in addition to the cytokine release and neurotoxicities that are standard with Car-T. There is also an impressive list of BCMA-targeting antibodies and cell therapies, including Johnson & Johnson’s cilta-cel, that could soon compete against Abecma. Not that any of this matters for holders of contingent value rights derived from Bristol’s 2019 takeover of Celgene; since the CD19-targeted Car-T therapy Breyanzi failed to be approved before the end of last year, that security has already lapsed.
Selected BCMA-targeted multiple myeloma therapies | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Project | Company | Modality | 2026e sales ($m) | Status |
Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin) | Glaxosmithkline | ADC | 1,462 | Marketed |
Abecma (ide-cel) | Bristol Myers Squibb/Bluebird | Car-T therapy | 1,198 | Approved |
Cilta-cel | Johnson & Johnson/Legend | Car-T therapy | 500 | Filed |
ALLO-715 | Allogene Therapeutics | Car-T therapy | 479 | Phase 1 |
CTX120 | Crispr Therapeutics | Car-T therapy | 171 | Phase 1 |
C-CAR088 | Cellular Biomedicine Group | Car-T therapy | 74 | Phase 1 |
HPN217 | Harpoon Therapeutics | Trispecific MAb | 46 | Phase 2 |
AUTO8 | Autolus Therapeutics | Bispecific Car-T | 46 | Preclinical |
AMG 420 | Amgen/Boehringer Ingelheim | Bispecific MAb | 19 | Phase 1 |
bb21217 | Bristol Myers Squibb/Bluebird | Car-T therapy | 13 | Phase 1 |
Source: Evaluate Pharma sellside consensus. https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/snippets/worlds-first-multiple-myeloma-cell-therapy-has-it-all-do |
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