Moderna, Inc.'s
vaccine franchise has further legs to play out, according to an analyst at Morgan Stanley.
The Moderna Analyst: Matthew Harrison has an Equal-weight rating and a $313 price target for Moderna shares.
The Moderna Thesis: The success of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines has led to the development of additional respiratory vaccines using the technology, Harrison said in a note.
The next key vaccine readout, the analyst said, will be on Moderna's lead flu candidate, code-named mRNA-1010, in the coming weeks to months.
Current flu vaccines suffer from relatively low efficacy, evident in low antibody titers, and a mismatch of encoded antigens to flu proteins circulating during the season, the analyst said. Based on Morgan Stanley's modeling, a mean HAI titer of about 1,500 would translate to a 90% effective vaccine.
A highly effective vaccine can have seroconversion rates above the 50-60% from current flu vaccines, the analyst said.
"We believe Moderna can achieve this threshold, which should increase investor confidence in the LT vaccine franchise," the analyst wrote in the note.
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