Officials are drawing up plans for two weeks of "circuit breaker" measures after Christmas, which would include a ban on indoor mixing, according to reports.
The claims come as Boris Johnson's cabinet is being briefed on the latest COVID data, with officials said to be concerned after three consecutive days of record case numbers.
However, one government source has told Sky News that not enough was known about the impact of Plan B and the booster programme - and played down talk of a circuit breaker-style period of restrictions.
"In any case, if things do become that bad, a circuit breaker wouldn't be the kind of thing we look at," they said.
Draft regulations are being prepared which would ban meeting others indoors except for work purposes, and limit restaurants and pubs to outdoor service only, according to The Times.
The Financial Times reported that the prime minister has been presented with a number of options under a so-called Plan C, ranging from "mild guidance to nudge people, right through to lockdown".
The paper quoted allies of Mr Johnson who claimed he wanted to go down the guidance route, but that he had to be realistic about the threat of Omicron.
When might such measures be introduced?
Further restrictions are needed within days to stop hospitals being overwhelmed by the surge of Omicron, according to senior government scientists.
Sky News understands that experts who produce advice for ministers believe there are now "hundreds of thousands" of infections every day, many more than the number of official cases recorded on the daily dashboard.
A return to measures that we were living with in April would be needed to stop hospitals being overwhelmed.
Under the step 2 restrictions of the roadmap out of lockdown pubs and restaurants could only serve at tables outside and indoor mixing with other households was banned.
The source said the circuit breaker would need to last for long enough for everyone to get a booster, building an extra wall of defence.
Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews and a member of SAGE, earlier told Times Radio that Plan B alone would not be enough to curb infections.
He said: "The only way really, or at least the most effective way, we can have an immediate effect is to decrease the number of contacts we have.
"In many ways, the most effective way of diminishing contact is to have a circuit breaker."
Is the booster programme key to avoiding more measures?
As cases surge, so to do the number of booster jabs being given out across the UK.
Half of adults in the UK (more than 26 million people) have now had a booster dose after the programme was accelerated this week, with online bookings opened up to all and walk-in sites attracting huge queues.
Among the sites are football stadiums, racecourses and Christmas markets, with 2,900 locations offering COVID vaccines over the weekend.
They include Wembley Stadium, Liverpool's Christmas Ice Festival, and Bluewater shopping centre in Kent.
People can arrange their jab online through the National Booking Service or by calling 119, and GP practices are also inviting those who are eligible.
What events have been cancelled this weekend?
With reports of further restrictions due, and Wales already announcing plans to close nightclubs, the UK's devolved administrations have ramped up their demands for more cash support.
On Friday, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed that a Cobra meeting with the devolved nations would go ahead over the weekend.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak also met virtually with business leaders after he returned early from a trip to California.
A Treasury spokesperson said: "We recognise how important the festive period is for so many businesses and the government will continue to engage constructively on how it can best provide ongoing support to the businesses and sectors affected."
The prime minister has so far insisted that the government isn't planning another lockdown.
Asked about conflicting messages from Number 10 and its advisers regarding Christmas socialising, notably from England's chief medical officer, he said: "What both Chris Whitty and I are saying is that there is a big wave of Omicron coming through.
"People need to be prudent. You need to think about your budget of risk."
It’s hard to see how Plan B is going to rein in Omicron.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimates every infected person is passing the virus on to between three and five others.
And in some parts of the country cases are doubling twice in just three days.
A return to working from home and wearing masks will prevent some opportunities for the virus to spread. But that’s highly unlikely to be enough.
In Scotland, businesses are already having to take extra measures and the public is being told to limit gatherings to three households at a time.
And in Wales nightclubs will close after Christmas, and social distancing and outdoor mixing is being strongly encouraged.
By contrast, in England, the government has preferred a lighter touch.
The chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty told MPs on the Health Select Committee this week that tighter controls could only be justified when there was evidence on the severity of Omicron disease.
That may come after Christmas when the UKHSA predicts 250 cases will be in hospital – enough for a meaningful statistical comparison with the Delta variant.
But even if the risk of serious disease is lower than in previous waves hospitals could still be overwhelmed because of the high rate of infections.
In which case what might Plan C entail?
Reversing back along the roadmap that took us out of lockdown in the Spring looks likely.
Perhaps to Step 3, in May 2021, with a limit of six people meeting indoors, and the hospitality industry restricted to table service inside.
Or could the restrictions go further, back to Step 2, as it was in April? That would mean non-essential retail could stay open, but pubs and restaurants could only serve at tables outside and indoor mixing with other households was banned.
It’s still possible that the peak in daily hospitalisations will be lower than the January record of 4,583.
The evidence from South Africa suggests that patients who are admitted with Omicron are less likely to need oxygen and they stay in hospital for half as long as in the Delta wave.
But admissions are already rising in London, which has the highest rates of Omicron in the country.
And scientists who model epidemics warn a precautionary approach would be smart. Otherwise, there is a danger that the fate of hospitals is sealed before there is time to act.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.