After two straight months of declines, analysts expected a modest rebound in US durable goods orders, and they did, rising 0.4% MoM in preliminary Sept data (less than expected +0.6%) with August being revised upwards to a very small rise...
Source: Bloomberg
However, ex-transportation, new orders tumbled 0.5% MoM (vs +0.2% exp) - that is the biggest MoM drop since April 2020
Source: Bloomberg
The CapEx proxy - was also a major disappointment - dropping 0.5% MoM vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise... and that feeds directly into GDPO calcs...
Source: Bloomberg
The big drag on new orders was a32.2% MoM drop in Defense aircraft and parts (we're gonna need moar war)...
Source: Bloomberg
So, are ISM respondents going to be proved right again, like they were in 2007-2009?
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps this is a 'notional' new orders vs 'absolute' real ISM view of orders?
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