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Sunday, May 21, 2023

Novo Nordisk Ozampic Drug Sales Expected to Reach $17B by 2029

 Ozampic, a top-selling drug used to treat type 2 diabetes, is expected to earn Novo Nordisk an estimated $17 billion in annual sales by 2029, dominating the market, according to a report by data analytics and consulting firm GlobalData. Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozampic, is also being used off-label as a weight-loss agent, encouraging healthcare practitioners and patients to consider the drug.

  • GlobalData predicts a sales growth of 23% for Ozampic in 2023, compared to last year’s $12.5B sales.
  • In Q1 2023, Novo Nordisk reported Ozempic revenue of DKK 19.64B (~$2.85B).
  • Ozampic’s sales in 2023 are anticipated to be 54% higher than its closest competitor Eli Lilly’s Trulicity (dulaglutide), estimated to have $8B in sales.
  • Lilly reported ~$1.98B in Trulicity revenue in Q1, up 14% from the year-ago period.
  • The US market is expected to remain the largest in 2022, accounting for 65% of overall sales, with an anticipated revenue of $71B expected to be generated between 2023 and 2029.
  • The compound annual growth rate of 9% over the period is estimated to maintain steady revenue growth for the drug.
  • Semaglutide, the active pharmaceutical ingredient in Ozempic, is also Novo Nordisk’s approved weight-loss treatment, Wegovi, although in different dosage strengths.
  • Wegovi recorded DKK 4.56B (~$661M) in revenue in Q1.
  • Semaglutide is available in tablet form as Rybelsus.
  • The weight loss achieved by patients with Ozampic and other GLP1-targeting drugs reduces insulin requirements for patients with type 2 diabetes, encouraging both patients and healthcare practitioners to consider this drug. GlobalData’s report noted.
  • Lilly’s Monjaro semaglutide is currently only approved for type 2 diabetes.
  • However, Lilly is pursuing a weight-loss indication for it, which could hit the market as soon as the end of this year.
  • Monjaro had sales of $568.5M in Q1.
  • In one study, individuals on tirzepetide achieved weight loss of up to 22.5%, more than 72 weeks. The people in the study were obese but did not have diabetes.
  • The percentage of weight loss was greater than in the semaglutide study at 68 weeks.
  • Ozampic’s sales are expected to continue to surge, dominating the diabetes market and generating billions of dollars in revenue, buoyed by off-label use as a weight-loss agent. Novo Nordisk’s competitor Lilly’s Monjaro, which is also being developed as a weight-loss agent, is expected to compete with Ozampic. However, Ozampic remains the leader in the diabetes market, with sustained growth likely in the years ahead.

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