Current events in Gaza and Lebanon, including the Tuesday and Wednesday pager attacks which have sown widespread chaos and death in Beirut, have caused Saudi Arabia to get more vocal in rejecting normalization with Israel.
The US has for several years been pushing hard for it behind the scenes, calling it "the deal of the century" connected with the Abraham Accords, but Riyadh is fast backing off reports of progress. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) made clear in a Wednesday speech that there will be no official relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
"The Kingdom will not cease its diligent efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital," he told the country's Shura Council in Riyadh during an annual address.
"We confirm that Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel until that goal is achieved," he emphasized. He added that Israeli "crimes" in violation of international laws makes this impossible at the moment.
"The Palestinian cause is a top priority for Saudi Arabia, and we reiterate the kingdom's rejection and strong condemnation of the crimes committed by the Israeli occupation authorities against the Palestinian people, in disregard of international and humanitarian law in a new and bitter chapter of suffering," he added.
"We extend our thanks to the countries that recognised the Palestinian state in embodiment of international legitimacy, and we urge the rest of the countries to take similar steps," he said further.
Normalization seemed on the cusp last year, but the Oct.7 Hamas terror attacks disrupted it, and some pundits at the time even said the Palestinian side was intentionally trying to blow up any efforts at Arab-Israeli normalization broadly. Palestinians fear that their cause will be forgotten if the Abraham Accords take wide effect in the region.
Throughout Israel's military operations in Gaza, the Saudis have warned that normalization could be permanently off unless Israeli forces withdraw from the Stip. Back in May, for example, the kingdom warned that an operation in Rafah "would be a big mistake and would push normalization between the two parties away."
The IDF of course went forward with a major Rafah operation and across the southern part of the Strip anyway. After that, Riyadh has made clear it is no longer pursuing diplomatic relations with Israel.
The Saudi royal family has always been more open to ties with Israel than the populace and clerics. It is especially the Wahhabi clerical establishment which frequently issued fiery condemnations of the Jewish state.
MbS has always had to keep this in mind, given persistent fears there could be unrest or an uprising among the ultra-conservative imams and broader population.
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