The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Please note that we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.
Latest estimate: 2.2 percent — May 27, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent on May 27, down from 2.4 percent on May 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.7 percent to -0.2 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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