Global oil supply exceeded demand for the first time since the US-Israeli war against Iran began in February, as oil exports from the Persian Gulf recovered faster than global consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its November Oil Market Report on Friday.
The global oil market was “showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran,” the agency said.
Global oil production rose by 2.3 million barrels a day in October to 105.4 million barrels daily, supported by recovering exports from the Persian Gulf despite continued attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers.
The IEA said Persian Gulf oil exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day in October, still 26 percent below prewar levels.
The recovery helped reverse earlier expectations of a supply deficit, with the agency forecasting a global oil surplus in the final quarter of 2026 and a larger surplus next year.
Oil prices also eased as supplies recovered. The IEA said North Sea Dated crude fell more than 30 percent from a high of $136 a barrel on October 8 to around $93, although prices remained $22 above prewar levels.
Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 2.7 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.3 million barrels daily, before rebounding by two million barrels a day in 2027.
The agency warned that attacks on shipping continued to threaten maritime security and the sustainability of the recovery.
It said the accelerated release of emergency diesel reserves would help ease supply shortages until global refinery output recovered.
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