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Saturday, September 8, 2018

Diclofenac painkiller poses risk to heart health


One of the most widely used painkillers may pose a threat to cardiovascular health. This is the main takeaway of new research, recently published in The BMJ.
Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used to alleviate pain.
In fact, according to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), about 30 million people in the United States take NSAIDs each year.
While NSAIDs are commonly recommended to treat inflammatory conditions, headaches, and fever, the drugs are thought to have some cardiovascular risks.
However, due to ethical concerns, these risks cannot be evaluated in clinical trials.
The European Society of Cardiology therefore carried out an extensive review of existing research that concluded that nonaspirin NSAIDs should not be prescribed to individuals at high risk of heart disease, nor should they be sold over the counter without issuing an “appropriate warning of their frequent cardiovascular complications.”
Now, a new study focuses on one NSAID in particular: diclofenac. Scientists led by Morten Schmidt, at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, set out to investigate the cardiovascular risks of taking this common painkiller, which some rank as “the most widely used […] NSAID in the world.

Cardiovascular risk 50 percent higher

Schmidt and team examined 252 national studies for information on over 6.3 million Danish people over a period of 20 years in 1996–2016. On average, the participants were aged 46–56.
During the study period, the researchers examined the cardiovascular risks of taking up diclofenac and compared them with the risks of starting paracetamol, ibuprofen, or naproxen.
After accounting for potentially confounding factors, the researchers found that within 30 days of taking up diclofenac, the rate of major cardiovascular problems — such as arrhythmia, ischemic strokeheart failure, and heart attack — was much higher compared with other NSAIDs.
Specifically, the risk of such adverse cardiovascular events was 50 percent higher among those who started taking diclofenac, compared with those who did not take it. Compared with taking paracetamol or ibuprofen, taking diclofenac raised cardiovascular risk by 20 percent.
Additionally, write the authors, “Diclofenac initiation […] increased the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding […] by approximately 4.5-fold compared with no initiation [and] 2.5-fold compared with initiation of ibuprofen or paracetamol.”
The cardiovascular threat also increased with the risk at baseline. In other words, the higher the risk of heart problems when the patients started taking the drug, the higher the risk of actually developing heart problems over the course of the treatment.
“Diclofenac poses a cardiovascular health risk compared with non-use, paracetamol use, and use of other traditional nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs,” explain the authors.
Although the study is observational, they say — which means that no conclusions can be drawn about causality — the large sample size and the quality of the research is sufficiently “strong evidence to guide clinical decision-making.”
“Treatment of pain and inflammation with NSAIDs,” explain the authors, “may be worthwhile for some patients to improve quality of life despite potential side effects.”
Considering its cardiovascular and gastrointestinal risks, however, there is little justification to initiate diclofenac treatment before other traditional NSAIDs.”

Arrowhead may have way to go on catalysts


When a biotech stock shoots up 37.5% on a day when most biotech stocks are dropping it’s certainly worth taking a look at. So what happened with Arrowhead PharmaceuticalsInc. (NASDAQ:ARWR) stock? ARWR announced that it will present new clinical data at a World Gastroenterologists Summit, and the markets responded positively to encouraging clinical results from a Phase ½ trial for a drug treating hepatitis B virus infection.
On Thursday, Sept. 6, Arrowhead announced encouraging data for a single ascending dose of RNAi therapeutic ARO-HBV in healthy subjects with chronic hepatitis B, leading to a 37.5% jump in ARWR stock. The data show the results of patients in the lowest two dose cohorts (100mg and 200mg). The company said that all patients, eight in total, “achieved greater than 1.0 log10 reductions in circulating HBsAg.”
Arrowhead also demonstrated positive safety data. The only adverse events patients reported were mild and self-limiting injection site adverse events — occurring about 10% of the time. Upper respiratory tract infection and headache were the other most commonly reported events. At this weekend’s conference, scientists and doctors will get more details on the safety profile, dosage, and mechanism of action for the proprietary Targeted RNAi Molecules platform (the drug’s trademark name is TRIM). The high activity of ARO-HBV is encouraging at this early phase of the study.
Arrowhead released these key data points:
  • “Mean reduction of HBsAg was 2.0 log10 (99%) on day 85 in cohort 2b (100 mg) and 1.4 log10 (96%) on day 71 in cohort 3b (200 mg)…
  • Maximum reduction of HBsAg was 4.0 log10 (99.99%)
  • Minimum HBsAg reduction in all patients from cohorts 2b and 3b was 1.2 log10 (93%)
  • Activity was demonstrated in all patient types (HBeAg pos/neg, NUC naïve/treated)”
With dosing levels of 35, 100, 200, 300, and 400mg now complete, the company may continue to the next phase. The 1+ to 3 log reduction in surface antigen is a giant leap forward in developing a drug that treats HBV patients.

Valuation

Setting a price target on an early-stage biotech is mostly a guess. The company has no cash flow, so it is not possible to assign an accurate fair value on ARWR stock. Still, Arrowhead’s future performance is encouraging. Per Simply Wall St., Arrowhead is expected to grow its annual earnings by 39.5%. This is a rate that is well above the U.S. market average of 16% and the biotech annual growth rate average of 23.6%. If it brings the product to market, revenue could potentially grow 53% annually, compared to the biotech average of 18.5%.
On the stock market, Arrowhead stock’s rally is even more impressive because the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) fell 1.78% on Sep 6. And Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) fell 2.21% on Thursday. Gilead, which trades at a P/E of just 12.5 times, makes Tenofovir Alafenamide, a drug that treats chronic hepatitis B virus.
Of the six analysts publishing a 12-month price target for ARWR stock in the last three months, the average price target is $21.42, implying upside of 10.5% (source: Tipranks).

System that owes Community Health over $28 million files for bankruptcy


A Knoxville-based health system that has purchased hospitals from Community Health Systems Inc. is seeking bankruptcy protection.
Curae Health Inc. and its three Mississippi hospitals all filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Aug. 24, according to filings with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Middle District of Tennessee.
Franklin-based CHS (NYSE: CYH), Nashville’s second-largest publicly traded health care company, sold the three facilities and a Florida hospital to Curae in September 2016 for $51 million, according to the filings. Curae currently owes CHS more than $28.6 million, according to its bankruptcy filing.
The facilities were among the first CHS sold as part of its plan to pay down debt following the $7.6 billion purchase of Florida-based Health Management Associates in 2014. The company has now sold more than 30 hospitals.
Becker’s Hospital Review reported that in court documents, Curae President and CEO Stephen Clapp said the purchase of the three hospitals made financial sense at the time but that their revenue dropped dramatically after the transaction closed. The company also struggled to pay for new electronic health record systems.
“This was a result of using CHS information systems longer than anticipated and the inability to secure permanent information system financing,” Clapp said in the filings.
The company and the three hospitals, which Curae plans to sell, have $96 million in liabilities and $3.4 million in cash, according to filings.
The Mississippi hospitals are: Gilmore Memorial Hospital in Amory, Panola Medical Center in Batesville and Northwest Mississippi Medical Center in Clarksdale.

Blood tester Guardant Health files for Nasdaq IPO


Cancer blood test maker Guardant Health plans to go public, filing an initial public offering on the Nasdaq using the symbol GH.
Its preliminary filing proposes a $100 million offering, but the Redwood City, California-based company describes that number as an estimate solely for calculating registration fees and is subject to change. The total number of shares and price per share have not yet been disclosed.
A member of last year’s class of the FierceMedTech Fierce 15, Guardant raised $360 million in May 2017 to sequence tumor DNA from 1 million cancer patients. The company describes its Guardant360 assay as the most widely ordered comprehensive liquid biopsy on the market, with over 5,000 oncologists ordering more than 70,000 tests since its 2014 launch, to scan patient blood draws for 73 cancer genes.
In 2017 alone, Guardant sold 25,754 tests to clinical customers, up from 18,643 the year before, as well as 6,141 to biopharma customers, up from 1,830.
In its prospectus, Guardant approximated the U.S. market for its current and investigational blood testing products at more than $35 billion—including applications for clinicians and industry customers across all stages of cancer, such as early screening, recurrence detection and late-stage therapy selection.
Last year the company brought in $49.8 million in total revenue, compared to $36.1 million in just the first half of 2018—with net losses of $83.2 million and $35.5 million, respectively.

While its Guardant360 test is not required to be approved by the FDA under current regulations, the company is planning to submit a premarket approval application in a bid to improve its tests’ coverage and reimbursements. The FDA granted the test a breakthrough device designation in January.
“We believe that FDA approval will become increasingly important for diagnostic tests to gain commercial adoption both in the United States and abroad,” the company wrote in its prospectus. “We also intend to pursue regulatory approvals in specific markets outside of the United States, including in Japan and China.”
In addition, Guardant has established a joint venture with the Tokyo-based conglomerate SoftBank, which led last year’s $360 million funding round, to assist with the commercialization of its products in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, with an initial focus on Japan.

Shionogi One-Dose Flu Drug Shows Promise


 An experimental single-dose flu drug shows promise as a new way to alleviate the misery of influenza, researchers say.
The drug — called baloxavir — worked better than no treatment in one phase of a new study. The study also found it as effective as the current standard drug, oseltamivir (Tamiflu), at controlling symptoms such as coughing, sore throat, headache, fever, muscle and joint pain, and fatigue.
Moreover, in light of concerns about flu-drug resistance, most patients treated with baloxavir responded as expected, the study authors said.
“There are few approved influenza antivirals, and current treatments have limitations,” said study lead author Dr. Frederick Hayden, of the University of Virginia School of Medicine.
“For example, currently circulating influenza viruses are resistant to the older class of antivirals,” he said. These include the drugs amantadine (brand name Symmetrel) and rimantadine (Flumadine).
Resistance is also growing to the class of drugs including widely used Tamiflu and Relenza (zanamivir), Hayden said. “Consequently, there are medical needs for new anti-influenza agents with different mechanisms of action and greater potency,” he added.
Hayden, professor emeritus of clinical virology and medicine, said the new study indicates that baloxavir resolves flu symptoms as quickly, effectively and safely as current options, without yet raising concerns about resistance. It also demonstrated “significantly greater antiviral effects,” he added.
Also, while Tamiflu must be taken twice a day for five days, baloxavir requires just one dose.
The investigation was funded by the drug company Shionogi, Inc., which developed and manufactures baloxavir.
Baloxavir is approved for use in Japan. In the United States, it remains an “investigational drug,” with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration expected to decide on approval by the end of this year.
The new study, which was published Sept. 6 in the New England Journal of Medicine, unfolded in two trials, both involving otherwise healthy flu patients at low risk for influenza complications.
One trial was conducted during the 2015-2016 flu season. About 400 patients, aged 20 to 64, received one of three doses of baloxavir (ranging from 10 to 40 milligrams) or a placebo. Flu symptoms eased notably faster among all three baloxavir groups, compared with placebo (untreated) patients, the findings showed.
The following flu season, nearly 1,100 patients, aged 12 to 64, were treated with baloxavir or Tamiflu. The drugs relieved symptoms in roughly the same time period, with similar side-effect risk.
However, about 10 percent of the baloxavir patients had a less than robust response to the drug. Hayden acknowledged that “the clinical and public health implications of reduced susceptibility to baloxavir are not fully understood.”
Dr. Timothy Uyeki, author of an accompanying journal editorial, is Chief Medical Officer of the Influenza Division at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“There is a need for antiviral drugs with new mechanisms of action,” he agreed.
Uyeki highlighted the benefit of baloxavir’s single-dose regimen. Besides its convenience, it “avoids concerns about compliance with a five-day treatment course of oseltamivir,” he said.
But he also stressed the need for further testing.
It remains unclear what benefits might accrue from combining baloxavir with Tamiflu, Uyeki noted.
Also, he cautioned, the current research only included otherwise healthy people aged 12 to 64 who were not at high risk for flu complications. Whether baloxavir will benefit high-risk groups — young children, the elderly, pregnant women and others with underlying chronic medical conditions — remains unknown, Uyeki said.
“A lot more studies are needed of the clinical benefit of baloxavir treatment of influenza in high-risk outpatients,” he added.
More information
There’s more on flu treatment at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
SOURCES: Frederick G. Hayden, M.D., professor emeritus, clinical virology, and medicine, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Va.; Tim Uyeki, M.D., MPH, MPP, chief medical officer, influenza division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta; Sept. 6, 2018, New England Journal of Medicine

Trupanion’s Murky Regulatory Quagmire (At Least ~31% Of Rev At Risk)


Trupanion offers Pet insurance through referrals from Veterinarians via the “Trupanion Express” software.
The company has previously leaned on the fact that they do not instruct their sales people (Territory Partners) or Veterinarians to specifically “solicit” insurance.
However, both of those parties are directly compensated when a patient becomes a plan holder.
The laws around referrals differ from state to state, but we believe that 15 states specifically prohibit referral payments and that those states represent about 30% of TRUP Revenue.

While you were in the Hampton’s during the last few weeks of August, I published two pieces on TRUP “Trupanion: A Regulatory Icarus With 75% Potential Downside” that was met with great anger from the company and subsequently followed by “Trupanion: A Moonshot Valuation With Lingering Questions“. The company has still not answered the three simple questions that I posed to them:
  1. Do you – or have you this calendar year – rewarded veterinarian clinics for points “based off of certificates issued at your [the veterinarian] hospital”?
  2. Do you – or have you this calendar year – provided cash rewards to your territory partners based off of the successful conversion of a new policyholder?
  3. Do you provide training to the veterinarians and their staff that they are specifically NOT allowed to offer or comment on specific insurance products without being a licensed agent?
These questions are worded specifically as they speak directly to the roll the compensation structure plays in establishing the potential violation of the referral laws cited in the previous pieces. Although I think there are lots of potential violations of the state insurance regulatory structure when a firm is paying both the Veterinarian and their third party marketing sales force off of the sale of insurance, I spent the last week refining my thoughts on the referral laws vs. solicitation laws and came to a few conclusions. Most importantly that around 31% of the company’s revenue is derived in states that specifically prohibit payment for referrals based on the successful sale of insurance. Specifically, that’s 13 states that don’t allow for referral payments based on the successful sale of insurance and 2 states that don’t allow for the payment of any referral.

Startups eye turning young blood into exilir of youth


IN THE EARLY 2000s, a handful of young scientists at Stanford turned the university’s Palo Alto campus into the mouse-stitching-together capital of the world. Reviving a centuries-old procedure known as parabiosis, they connected the circulatory systems of dozens of pairs of rodents, young sutured to old, so that they’d pump one another’s blood back and forth. The grisly experiments rejuvenated the aging mice, making them stronger and healthier, and introducing the 21st century’s longevity enthusiasts to the therapeutic potential of young blood.
While much work remains to be done on how this regenerative process actually works, Stanford’s parabiosis studies have since inspired the creation of a handful of ambitious startups aimed at producing similarly dramatic effects in humans. Today, the latest young-blood medicine-maker, Elevian, emerged from stealth with $5.5 million from investors including Peter Diamandis, one of the more prominent faces in the Silicon Valley “death disruption” scene.
Beneath all the hype is some striking science. Blood, particularly the yellow liquid part of it known as plasma, is chock full of proteins and other compounds that act like a readout of how all the cells in the body are functioning. Research has shown that the ratios of those components change as animals, including humans, age. Older blood carries more signs of tissue damage than young blood, which often contains compounds that can stimulate cell growth and repair. Elevian has singled out one of these proteins, a growth differentiation factor known as GDF11, as the chief source of young blood’s rejuvenating effects.
At the outset, the company is developing drugs based on GDF11 to treat Alzheimer’s, coronary heart disease, and age-related muscle dysfunction. But its founders say any disease of the elderly is on the table. “What’s really unique here is that you can improve the function of tissue that’s already been damaged, regardless of what caused the damage,” says Lee Rubin, a neuroscientist at Harvard and one of Elevian’s five scientific cofounders. “That suggests a way forward for treating many different disorders.”
Rubin began studying longevity in 2006, when he left a career in biotech to join the Harvard faculty. He soon found himself teaching a course on aging with a young stem cell biologist named Amy Wagers, a pioneer of Stanford’s parabiosis studies. She was looking for collaborators to continue her work on the East Coast, to tease out the impact of young blood on different kinds of tissues. Together they discovered that young blood sparks the formation of new neurons in the brain. Working with other Harvard researchers, Wagers found that it could also reverse age-related thickening of the walls of the heart.
Bolstered by these results, Wagers and her collaborators went looking for the ingredients in young blood responsible for the rejuvenating effects. One molecule, a growth protein known as GDF11, jumped out. In two eye-popping papers in Science in 2014, Wagers’ group reported that GDF11, injected on its own, made old mice stronger, increased blood flow to their brains, and even improved their memories. Those results have since become a subject of sore scientific debate—researchers at pharmaceutical firm Novartis published a subsequent report suggesting that high doses of GDF11 actually cause muscle wasting in mice.
Despite the controversy, Elevian has licensed the Harvard team’s portfolio of patents around GDF11, which includes the protein as it’s found naturally in the body, according to cofounder and CEO Mark Allen. One challenge is that GDF11 degrades quickly, so he says Elevian is also investigating drug formulations that don’t require daily injections. “We’re working with biology, so we have to respect its complexity,” Allen says.
It’s exactly that complexity that makes some aging experts skeptical of Elevian’s leap to the clinic. “I don’t think GDF11 is going to ultimately be the panacea people hope it will be,” says Ron Kohanski, a deputy director in the division of aging biology at the National Institute on Aging. He points out that GDF11 comes in many forms, not all of them active. Some need specific binding partners to turn on, which may not be present in all tissues at all ages.
In 2017, the National Institute on Aging committed $2.35 million in funds for scientists to better understand the mechanisms behind the young-blood effect. Kohanski wrote the call for grant applications. “Obviously I think there’s a lot of potential in the findings from the parabiosis experiments,” he says. “But the key question is what’s doing this. And the answer is we don’t yet know.”
There are more than 10,000 proteins in blood plasma—blood minus the blood cells—so Elevian’s focus on GDF11 is only one of many avenues pursued by longevity startups.
In 2016, a company called Ambrosia launched the first human trial of young plasma transfusions, charging patients $8,000 a pop to participate. Anyone over 35 with the necessary cash was eligible to receive two liters of plasma donated by young adults, which Ambrosia purchases from blood banks. Given the fee and the lack of a placebo treatment to compare it to, scientists and bioethicists have questioned the rigor of the study. But those barbs haven’t stopped Ambrosia’s founder, Jesse Karmazin, from being bullish on the (unpublished) results of the trial, which he announced for the first time at the Recode technology conference last May.
“We measured 113 biomarkers 30 days after the transfusion and we saw a durable, but not permanent, effect,” says Karmazin, who has an MD from Stanford but no license to practice medicine. (He initially conducted the trial with a physician who runs a private intravenous therapy center in Monterey, California, but later moved to sites in San Francisco and Tampa after a falling out between them.) Karmazin says the study participants described feeling stronger, more awake, and as if their memory had improved. “We saw results that were consistent with the preclinical work in mice.”
He says the next move for Ambrosia is to open up a series of clinics, targeting cities with big aging populations in parts of the country where early adopters are likely to live—places like New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and, of course, Florida. For the moment the company is keeping quiet about when exactly that might happen, but Karmazin believes they’ll be the first to do it. They may find it challenging to recruit clients. Ambrosia’s trial initially intended to enroll 600 patients, but in the end only included 81 individuals. There’s no word yet on what the treatment will cost.
Ambrosia, with its off-label use of an FDA-approved blood product, is about as far from Elevian’s needle-in-the-haystack approach as you can get. Between them is Alkahest, a Stanford spin-out from the lab of neurologist Tony Wyss-Coray, which is searching for an optimized plasma cocktail—the right mix of beneficial proteins without any of the bad ones—to treat Alzheimer’s.
Wyss-Coray, who worked next door to the lab where Wager began her parabiosis studies, showed in his own mouse-enstein experiments that young blood could improve memory and learning in older rodents. In subsequent experiments he injected middle-aged mice with young plasma to similarly sprightly effect. His research caught the eye of the youngest member of a wealthy family in Hong Kong, a molecular biologist who had noticed that his grandfather’s Alzheimer’s symptoms seemed to temporarily improve every time he got a plasma transfusion as part of a cancer treatment. In 2014, the family provided the funds to seed Wyss-Coray’s company and launch Alkahest’s first clinical trial to test the safety of young plasma for treating Alzheimer’s in 18 patients at Stanford. The results, which were recently accepted for publication, suggest that even a short course of weekly infusions could improve some of the disease’s symptoms.
Alkahest recently began enrolling patients in a larger trial, backed by a $37.5 million investment from plasma company Grifols. The Spanish firm makes many different products from harvested blood—antibodies, albumin, factor VIII for hemophiliacs—that leaves behind many discardable plasma mixtures. After screening those waste products for regenerative effects in mice, Alkahest hit on one that’s more potent than the others. They’re now testing that potential elixir in humans, with plans to enroll 40 Alzheimer’s patients in California and Florida. In addition to testing cognitive function, the trial will also sample patient fluids for signs of improved health.
“Ultimately we want to find out what the key ingredients are, because if it really works plasma donations won’t be sufficient to treat everybody,” says Wyss-Coray. According to the American Association of Blood Banks, 60 percent of the declining US blood supply comes from donations made by people over the age of 40. The young blood field still has plenty of maturing to do, but in this case growing up doesn’t have to mean growing old.