Novel mobile technology may be desirable. But a novel mobile virus? Not so much.
Concerns about the latter, namely the new coronavirus (2019-NCoV),
are apparently keeping some major tech companies like Amazon and Sony
from attending this year’s edition of the Mobile World Congress (MWC).
Indeed, what’s billed as “the largest mobile event in the world” may
not be so large this year if fears of infection keep enough people away.
So, the big question is, “Alexa, does this make sense? Are such fears
really founded? Is avoiding such mass gatherings now a good idea?”If you have somehow been on the toilet since mid-December 2019 without access to any mobile devices and are wondering “what outbreak,” here’s what’s been dominating the news: the ongoing 2019-NCoV outbreak. It started in Wuhan, China, at the end of last year and has already resulted in over 42,000 people being infected and over 1,000 dying. The rapid spread of this newly discovered and still rather mysterious virus has raised real legitimate concerns around the world. At the same time, it has sparked some unjustified panic, uncovered some, surprise, surprise, racism, and spawned a whole lot of misconceptions, as I described previously for Forbes.
The outbreak has also prompted Sony to make the following decision: “Sony has been closely monitoring the evolving situation following the novel coronavirus outbreak, which was declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization on January 30th, 2020. As we place the utmost importance on the safety and well-being of our customers, partners, media and employees, we have taken the difficult decision to withdraw from exhibiting and participating at MWC 2020 in Barcelona, Spain.”
During last year’s Mobile World Congress, Mitsuya Kishida, head of Sony’s mobile division, presented … [+]
picture alliance via Getty ImagesFor example, one set of precautions will be trying to keep anyone who has a higher risk of being infected away from the event. This is reasonable as long as the screening criteria are scientifically-based and not something like “anyone who looks Asian.” Indeed, the screening criteria put forth by the GSMA are more based on a person’s history, which makes sense. If you are from China’s Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, time to make other plans. You won’t be allowed into the MWC. That also applies if you’ve been in China, anywhere in China, within 14 days prior to the start of the MWC. That’s soon enough to be infected but not yet manifest symptoms.
Being from China shouldn’t be the only criteria, because after all the virus has spread beyond the country. Therefore, regardless of where you are from, you’ll still have to “self-certify” that you haven’t been in contact with anyone who’s infected. Oh, and if you are hot, meaning fever-wise and not looks-wise, routine temperature screening at the meeting may keep you from entering.
That’s not all. The GSMA has promised to do more cleaning and disinfecting than usual, especially in areas that get touched more often, and provide ways for attendees to clean and disinfect themselves. If you are wondering what this “wash your hands” thing is, the MWC will provide cleaning and hygiene reminders and training. Oh, and this should be welcome news if you’ve ever had to speak after a prior speaker “got to first base” with the microphone. The GSMA will have a “microphone disinfecting and change protocol for all speakers.” Yeah, having to use a moist microphone that smells like saliva isn’t too fun. All of these steps should become more standard at meetings in general.
The MWC will include lots of product demos, which will then require proper cleaning and disinfecting … [+]
picture alliance via Getty ImagesAre all of these precautions comforting enough for you? Or will you go the way of Amazon and skip all such mass gatherings? Certainly, going to mass gatherings in Wuhan City would not be the wisest thing to do right now and may not even be possible given the quarantines that are occurring there. But, how about something like the MWC? If you haven’t figured it out from a map or your Uber app, Barcelona, Spain, is not right next to Wuhan, China. It is about 9,407 km away, which would be a really expensive Uber ride. The question then is should you avoid all mass gatherings, even those that are far, far away from the epicenter of the 2019-nCoV outbreak?
Well, let’s look at what’s actually happening with the outbreak. Sure, the 2019-nCoV has already spread beyond China as shown by the following AFP News Agency tweet :
And, yes, the numbers have been growing. But keep in mind, the vast majority of cases have still been in China. Twelve cases in the U.S., seven in Canada, four in Britain, 14 in Germany, one in Belgium, and 18 in Taiwan aren’t exactly huge numbers.
Plus, the MWC is far from the only mass gathering that will be occurring this month. Sporting events, church services, parties, massive Tinder gatherings, and other conferences will continue to bring together strangers to mix. For example, the World Clown Association Convention seems to be still on for early March. Surely, Amazon and other companies won’t be pulling their employees out of every meeting and gathering for all of February and beyond until the outbreak passes.
Are people more concerned about the MWC because of this statistic mentioned on the GSMA press release: typically 5-6% of all MWC attendees (that’s 5,000 to 6,000 people) have come from China? Perhaps. Remember, though, China has over 1.39 billion people living on a piece of land that is over 9.38 million square miles. While there have been over 40,000 cases of infection in China, that is still only a small fraction of all the people in China. Believing that everyone from China may be infected with 2019-nCoV would be like believing that everyone from America puts Tide Pods in their mouths, not that the two are related.
Additionally, avoiding or cancelling mass gatherings may not do a whole lot to slow or mitigate epidemics caused by highly contagious respiratory viruses like the 2019-NCoV. As long as other interactions are still occurring at workplaces, schools, and the community, viruses that can be transmitted via respiratory droplets can still find other venues to spread. Just look at what our computational modeling found during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. For example, a publication in BMC Public Health detailed a study that was a collaboration between our PHICOR team and a team that at the time was at Georgia Tech University (Pengyi Shi, PhD, Pinar Keskinocak, PhD, and Julie L Swann, PhD). The study entailed developing a computer model that simulated the population of Georgia (the state and not the country) and their daily activities and movements to and from different locations. Simulation experiments then introduced a novel flu virus into the population. No one had vaccine-induced immunity to this virus, which meant that the virus could spread rather rapidly, sort of like the new coronavirus but not exactly. We ran simulation experiments with and without canceling all mass gatherings at varying times. That’s all large meetings, concerts, and sporting events in the state of Georgia. In most situations, canceling such events did little to slow or reduce the spread of the virus. They proved useful only when the cancellations occurred within the 10-day time period before the peak of the epidemic occurred. In such cases, canceling such gatherings couldn’t really stop the epidemic but could decrease the number of people who get infected by as much as 10%.
At this point in time, with most of the cases still being in China, canceling or avoiding mass gatherings far away from the epicenter may not be the most effective way of preventing the spread of the virus. Instead, it’s probably better to have more universal adoption of the strategies outlined by the GSMA. Again, this includes identifying those who may be at greater risk for carrying the virus based on their history, enhanced cleaning and disinfecting, encouraging hand washing, and minimizing activities that may transfer the virus such as trading disgusting, spit-drenched microphones and dirty, dirty handshakes.
When determining whether to go to a mass gathering, look at all the risks. If you are still mixing with other people in other ways, you may not be really decreasing your risk of getting infected by that much. And currently, your risk of catching the 2019-NCoV is still pretty low if you are not close to Wuhan, China. Practicing good infection control measures and not staying weirdly close to people remain the best ways to protect yourself regardless of where you go. Like it or not, our world is already too heavily connected and mobile to make avoiding certain groups of people the smart thing to do.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/02/10/new-coronavirus-and-mobile-world-congress-withdrawals-should-you-avoid-mass-gatherings/#1617e08d4c73
